Did Notre Dame’s 52-3 waxing of Florida State on Saturday night refract the eye test when it comes to the College Football Playoff?
It’s not quite that simple, given nothing regarding the CFP rankings happens in a vacuum. But what is definitive is the Irish find themselves in the No. 8 spot in the second set of rankings, unveiled on Tuesday night between men’s college basketball games on ESPN.
Notre Dame debuted at No. 10 last week. The Irish (8-1) had climbed in both of the traditional polls on Sunday following tied for the most lopsided loss imposed on the Seminoles in their history — from No. 10 to No. 8 in the AP poll and No. 8 to No. 7 in the coaches poll.
And the CFP selection committee was in step with that movement.
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The implications of the rankings promotion are both quite encouraging and bit presumptuous about the trajectory Notre Dame appears to be on toward eventually moving into a position to host a first-round playoff game Dec. 20 or 21.
With Georgia and Miami both losing on Saturday, the reshuffled top 12 looked as follows: 1. Oregon, 2. Ohio State, 3. Texas, 4. Penn State, 5. Indiana, 6. BYU, 7. Tennessee, 8. ND, 9. Miami, 10. Alabama, 11. Ole Miss, and 12. Georgia.
The top five conference champs earn automatic bids into the 12-team College Football Playoff field. The top four receive first-round byes. With the highest-ranked ACC team, Miami at No. 9, the Hurricanes jump to a No. 4 seed and knock the Irish — and others — back a spot in the seedings. And with Boise claiming the 12th seed, that bumps Georgia (7-2) from the projected field this week.
Because Notre Dame is not in a conference, its highest seeding is capped at 5. The Irish need to be seeded at least eighth to host in the first round.
At the moment, Notre Dame’s playoff path would start as the No. 9 seed, with a road game vs. 8 seed Tennessee in Knoxville, then No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinals.
The fact that two two-loss SEC teams of note, Alabama (7-2) and Ole Miss (8-2), didn’t jump the Irish this week after big wins is significant, because neither has much schedule strength left to build a case unless they got into and won a crazy tiebreaker that landed them in the SEC title game.
As it stands now, neither one plays a FBS team with a winning record the balance of the season, with Ole Miss’ opponents a combined 6-13.
Meanwhile, the best-case scenario for Notre Dame, with regard to its past opponents, is for No. 15 Texas A&M and No. 19 Louisville to keep winning, and No. 24 Army (9-0) to win all its remaining games when not facing the Irish — which happens Nov. 23 at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.
All are potential perceptual boosts when it comes to ND’s strength of schedule.
As for the remaining schedule, the Irish host Virginia (5-4) on Saturday before playing Army in a Shamrock Series matchup, then closing with USC (4-5) in Los Angeles on Nov. 30.
Each incarnation of the CFP selection committee has evolved the selection principles of the years since the four-team version of the CFP started in the 2014 season. In early seasons, a loss to Northern Illinois early in the season wouldn’t be weighted as much as what a team did in November — especially if that team showed growth and improvement since the loss.
And now?
“Well, that's a good question,” said Michigan athletic director Warde Manuel, in his first year as selection committee chair. “We first start every week with a clean slate. We look at the body of work up until that point of every team that we are considering. And, obviously, we can see when a team loses early or wins a big game early or loses late or wins a big game later in the season. We deal with it as it comes.
“But there's really not a time where we give more credence to an early win or early loss over everything. We look at them as they come and judge them for where they are based on the body of work.
“With that, obviously teams can, as they play later in the season, if they win or lose, we factor that into how we evaluate them at that time. But I would just say we recognize it, but we take it and evaluate it by who they lose to, where is it in the season? Obviously we see that, but we look at it individually.”
So, clear as mud. In Manuel’s defense, the committee doesn’t want to talk its way into a corner, because there is a uniqueness to each résumé and a very limited supply of connecting data points.
The final set of CFP rankings and the actual pairings for the first 12-team playoff will be unveiled at noon EST on Dec. 8.
Remaining regular-season schedules of CFP contenders
No. 1 Oregon (10-0): at Wisconsin (5-4), vs. Washington (5-5)
No. 2 Ohio State (8-1): at Northwestern (4-5), vs. Indiana (10-0), vs. Michigan (5-5)
No. 3 Texas (8-1): at Arkansas (5-4), vs. Kentucky (3-6), at Texas A&M (7-2)
No. 4 Penn State (8-1): at Purdue (1-8), at Minnesota (6-4), vs. Maryland (4-5)
No. 5 Indiana (10-0): at Ohio State (8-1), vs. Purdue (1-8)
No. 6 BYU: vs. Kansas (3-6), at Arizona State (7-2), vs. Houston (4-5)
No. 7 Tennessee (8-1): at Georgia (7-2), vs. UTEP (2-8), vs. Vanderbilt (6-4)
No. 8 Notre Dame (8-1): vs. Virginia (5-4), neutral site vs. Army (9-0), at USC (4-5)
No. 9 Miami: vs. Wake Forest (4-5), at Syracuse (6-3)
No. 10 Alabama (7-2): vs. Mercer (FCS, 9-1), vs. Oklahoma (5-5), vs. Auburn (3-6)
No. 11 Ole Miss (8-2): at Florida (4-5) vs. Mississippi State (2-8)
No. 12 Georgia (7-2): vs. Tennessee (8-1), vs. UMass (2-7), vs. Georgia Tech (6-4)
No. 13 Boise State (8-1): at San Jose State (6-3), at Wyoming (2-7), vs. Oregon State (4-5)
No. 14 SMU (8-1): vs. Boston College (5-4), at Virginia (5-4), vs. Cal (5-4)
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