Breaking down the final chase for ACC Women's Basketball Tournament seeding
The Notre Dame women’s basketball team has been sitting on a less-precarious tournament bubble for the past month or so than the one most teams will sweat out on NCAA Tournament Selection Sunday, March 17.
But it’s a bubble nonetheless.
It’s not a matter of in or out of the NCAA Tournament — or the ACC’s tourney that precedes it, March 6-10 in Greensboro, N.C. It’s about raising its profile to have a better chance of making a deep run in both tourneys.
And the last two Irish regular-season games will give Notre Dame a chance at both. But it won’t be easy.
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The ACC’s hottest team, fifth-ranked Virginia Tech visits Thursday night (7 p.m. EDT) before the Irish close the regular season Sunday against Louisville (2 p.m.). Both games will air on ESPN.
At stake short term is a chance to earn a top four seeding in the ACC Tournament, which comes with it a double-bye into the March 8 quarterfinals. Long term, how the Irish fare this week could bump them up to a No. 4 seed and host team for the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament.
The latest ESPN bracketology, released before Notre Dame’s road win at Boston College on Sunday, projected the Irish as a No. 5 seed and playing on the road in the early rounds of the NCAA Tourney at Spokane, Wash, with a potential second-round game on the home court of 4 seed Gonzaga.
But the focus for the moment is the ACC seedings, which have gained few absolutes heading into the final week of the regular season. Here’s a breakdown of the two teams out of 15 that have clinched double-byes and the six teams fighting for the remaining two spots:
► VIRGINIA TECH (23-4, 14-2)
Rankings: AP: 5, NET: 14
Outlook: Clinched No. 1 seed and a double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
Notable on the résumé: Has won 10 straight since back-to-back losses to Florida State and Duke. Swept NC State. Lost to Iowa by four on a neutral court in November.
What’s Left: Thursday at No. 17 Notre Dame, Sunday at Virginia.
► SYRACUSE (23-5, 13-4)
Rankings: AP: 19, NET: 43
Outlook: Clinched a top four seed and a double-bye in the ACC Tournament, and can guarantee itself the No. 2 seed with a win Thursday night at NC State.
Notable on the résumé: Its relatively low NET ranking is influenced by no notable non-conference wins. The Orange also lost to Duke last week and almost lost to Pitt at home before rallying in the fourth quarter. Most impressive for Syracuse is its two-game sweep of Notre Dame.
What’s Left: Thursday at No. 12 NC State.
► NC STATE (23-5, 11-5)
Rankings: AP: 12, NET: 15
Outlook: Playing for a top four seed and double-bye in the ACC Tournament, no longer the seeming lock it had been before dropping both of its games last week, to backyard rivals North Carolina and Duke.
Notable on the résumé: The Wolfpack, a projected No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed until its recent slide, has impressive non-conference wins over Connecticut and Colorado and owns head-to-head ACC tiebreakers with the other three teams in the four-team 11-5 cluster.
What’s Left: Thursday vs. No. 19 Syracuse, Sunday vs. Wake Forest.
► NOTRE DAME (21-6, 11-5)
Rankings: AP: 17, NET: 10
Outlook: Playing for a No. 3 or 4 seed and double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
Notable on the résumé: The Irish have the highest NET ranking among ACC teams, in part because of their road win at UConn (No. 2 in the NET rankings) and the fact only two Division I teams — Gonzaga and Saint Joseph’s — have more true road wins than Notre Dame’s 11. The Irish lose head-to-head tiebreakers with both Syracuse and NC State if those come into play.
What’s Left: Thursday vs. No. 5 Virginia Tech, Sunday vs. No. 22 Louisville.
► LOUISVILLE (22-7, 11-5)
Rankings: AP: 22, NET: 23
Outlook: Playing for a No. 3 or 4 seed and double-bye in the ACC Tournament, a quest that became much more complicated after the Cardinals got upended at home by Virginia this past Sunday.
Notable on the résumé: Louisville had two notable non-conference wins, beating Gonzaga by double digits and winning on the road at Ole Miss, the SEC’s third-place team in the league standings behind No. 1 South Carolina and defending national champ LSU. The Cardinals lose most head-to-head tiebreakers, so sweeping Notre Dame, which it beat in Louisville earlier this month, on Sunday is a must.
What’s Left: Thursday vs. Florida State, Sunday at No. 17 Notre Dame.
► FLORIDA STATE (20-8, 11-5)
Rankings: AP: Also Receiving Votes, NET: 40
Outlook: Playing for a No. 3 or 4 seed and double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
Notable on the résumé: Played Pac-12 powers Stanford and UCLA early in the season, but lost to them both. Best win was a mid-January takedown of ACC leader Virginia Tech. The Seminoles lose both head-to-head tiebreakers with NC State and Notre Dame, so a sweep this week feels like a must to have a chance.
What’s Left: Thursday at No. 22 Louisville, Sunday vs. Clemson.
► DUKE (18-9, 10-6)
Rankings: AP: ARV, NET: 20
Outlook: Playing for a No. 4 seed and double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
Notable on the résumé: Duke’s high net comes from doing well against the ACC’s top teams, splitting with both Virginia Tech and NC State and beating Syracuse. Lost to Stanford in overtime early in the year. Losses to non-contenders Miami and Clemson still haunt them. The Blue Devils need a lot of upsets, even with a sweep of Virginia and North Carolina.
What’s Left: Thursday vs. Virginia, Sunday at North Carolina.
► NORTH CAROLINA (18-10, 10-6)
Rankings: AP: ARV, NET: 30
Outlook: Playing for a No. 4 seed and double-bye in the ACC Tournament.
Notable on the résumé: Like Duke, North Carolina needs a lot of help, after suffering a four-game losing streak in late January/early February. The Tar Heels can play with anyone and have scheduled ambitiously. Oklahoma is their best non-conference win, but they battled No. 1 South Carolina and fell in a low-scoring game (65-58). They do hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over both Notre Dame and Louisville.
What’s Left: Thursday at Boston College, Sunday vs. Duke.
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