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What to expect for Notre Dame on College Football Playoff selection Sunday

Notre Dame likely needed two of the three teams ranked No. 2 through No. 5 in the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings to lose on championship Saturday in order for the Irish to work their way into the top four. Only one, No. 5 Oklahoma State, was defeated.

So what now? Better luck next time.

The Fighting Irish (11-1) almost certainly won't qualify as a semifinalist. Former head coach Brian Kelly, now at LSU, said multiple times Notre Dame was one of the four best teams in the country — even after he made the decision to become a Tiger. Newly named Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman was ready for a chance to coach in the CFP, but it's looking like that won't be reality.

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No. 2 Michigan demolished No. 13 Iowa 42-3. No. 3 Alabama easily handled No. 1 Georgia 41-24. No. 4 Cincinnati took care of No. 21 Houston 35-20. Those three winners are locks to stay in the top four when the final rankings are released Sunday afternoon. It's believed that Georgia, widely considered the best team in the sport since mid-October, is also a lock despite a blowout loss to the Crimson Tide.

The SEC Championship Game was by far the Bulldogs' worst defensive and overall game of the season, but it still probably was not bad enough to drop the Dawgs from the top out of the mountain to the outside looking in. Georgia passed the eye test in every other game. One loss to the defending national champion won't spell doomsday.

The rankings will likely shake out one of two ways. Alabama moves to No. 1 and Georgia drops to No. 2 or No. 3 to avoid an immediate rematch of the SEC title game. Or Michigan assumes the throne as the top team in the country at No. 1, Alabama slides to No. 2 and Georgia falls all the way to No. 4 to again avoid the rematch. Cincinnati would rank No. 3 in the first scenario and No. 4 in the second.

Notre Dame does not fit into either outlook. The Fighting Irish will most likely check in at No. 5 no matter how it plays out with No. 1 through No. 4. Notre Dame fans can get nit-picky and declare Georgia doesn't have much better of a résumé than that of the Irish, but even that wouldn't quite be accurate. Georgia has three wins over teams that checked into last week's CFP rankings; No. 20 Clemson, No. 22 Arkansas and No. 23 Kentucky. Notre Dame has zero such wins.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish and the College Football Playoff
Notre Dame will likely come up just short of a College Football Playoff berth. (Associated Press)

According to ESPN's Football Power Index ratings, Georgia had the No. 1 strength of record going into championship Saturday. Notre Dame ranked No. 6 in the same metric. Georgia ranked No. 56 in strength of schedule. Notre Dame ranked No. 50. That's not enough of a difference for the Irish to make a case it should be in over Georgia by virtue of playing a (marginally) tougher slate of opponents.

Georgia's strength of schedule vaulted to No. 20 just by playing Alabama, and its strength of record only dropped to No. 3 with the loss. Notre Dame came out of championship Saturday No. 52 and No. 5 in those respective statistics.

If anything, Baylor was a bad loss to TCU away from making the debate all the more interesting. The Bears beat Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship Game to notch a third victory over a team ranked in last week's CFP top 15. No other team in the country has as many top 15 victories.

And on the topic of losses that ultimately kept a team out of the playoff, Notre Dame has one of those. The Irish lost to Cincinnati 24-13 at home. Had Notre Dame taken care of business within the confines of its own stadium on Oct. 2, Freeman's team would be in the field. But then again, Kelly might still be around in South Bend if that had been the case.

Everything happens for a reason, perhaps.

As for Notre Dame's bowl game designation, the Irish are a lock for at-large New Year's Six representation as an independent. The options narrow down to the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl. Cincinnati would have played in the former had the Bearcats not finished off an undefeated, CFP-worthy season. With Cincinnati likely to remain the the top four, though, Notre Dame is a probable pick to head to the Fiesta Bowl instead. Possible opponents include Michigan State and Oklahoma State.

The Athletic's Stewart Mandel projected Notre Dame and Oklahoma State to meet in the Fiesta Bowl. So did ESPN's Kyle Bonagura. Interestingly, CBS Sports' Jerry Palm and ESPN's Mark Schlabach both have Notre Dame meeting Pittsburgh in the Peach Bowl. So there is still a chance the Irish end up in Atlanta on Dec. 30 instead of Arizona on New Year's Day.

USA Today also predicted Notre Dame vs. Pitt in the Peach Bowl. Athlon Sports has Notre Dame and Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl, as does Sporting News and the Action Network's Brett McMurphy. Major outlets seem split on where the Irish will end up. The College Football Playoff selection show starts at noon ET Sunday on ESPN while NY6 matchups will be announced at 2:30 p.m. ET.

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