With plenty of football still to play and the cannibalism ready to begin among the 25 teams in the initial 2021 College Football Playoff rankings, there wasn’t any reason for all-out panic when Notre Dame checked in at No. 10, even if that ranking at the time was two spots below its No. 8 spot in the Associated Press Top 25, leaving long odds for a Fighting Irish postseason push.
What we know for sure is that winning out is a must if the Irish want to entertain any playoff hopes, and even that may not be enough to get in, no secret there.
As far as the dominoes beyond taking care of its own business, Notre Dame needs all or a hefty combination of Cincinnati, Oregon, Ohio State and Oklahoma to lose before season’s end, and to have Wisconsin pile up enough wins to become champions of Big Ten.
But this story isn’t as much about finding an unlikely path for Notre Dame to make its way into CFP consideration — FiveThirtyEight.com gave the Irish only a 12 percent chance of making the four-team field after the first CFP rankings were released — as it is about illustrating the preconceptions and flawed criteria that the 13-member CFP committee used in settling on and situating its initial poll.
Again, CFP rankings in early November rarely mean much, and this selection system will eventually sort itself out, presumably with some combination of the usual candidates — Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma — claiming all or most of the four spots.
But for teams such as Notre Dame and Cincinnati that carry an equal or superior profile compared to some teams ranked above them, there’s a feeling of helplessness in being at the mercy of a committee that has already demonstrated that its decisions will be made based more on yesteryear than the current year.
“Eye test” and “momentum” and “improvement” are popular terms and key criteria the committee professes it will use throughout this process when measuring a program’s playoff worth.
So, with that in mind, why was Notre Dame — which had to replace its defensive coordinator and the nine players it put in the 2021 NFL Draft after last season — still penalized in the initial CFP rankings for lackluster performances in early September during wins over Florida State and Toledo?
Since then, the Irish showed more improvement than any team in the country while winning six of their next seven games, three by double-digits over Wisconsin, USC and North Carolina — a trio of talented teams all ranked in the preseason AP poll.
It’s understood that Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State have the most talent on their rosters. But sometimes team qualities such as experience, chemistry, leadership, smarts and camaraderie can overcome recruiting rankings and star power.
If the CFP committee is basing its rankings on history and five-star recruits, then pencil in Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State each preseason as three playoff teams and let the rest of the FBS battle for the fourth spot.
Again, even assuming that Notre Dame wins out from here, the odds for a CFP berth will still remain long for the Irish, even with multiple wins against the ACC, the Big Ten and the Pac-12 conferences.
That’s because until a more inclusive and expanded CFP format is adopted that rewards all conference champions and evaluates teams beyond the same short list of usual playoff candidates the committee gets stuck on each year, the odds remain long for any team outside of that preferred group to collect a playoff invite, and that’s not right.
Roster A may have more five-star players than Roster B. But in a season full of parity and upsets — more than 50 ranked teams were beaten this year, a single-season record — the committee needs to take a broader view and realize that when choosing a CFP field, game results and noticeable improvement should matter more than historical context.
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