The subtle irony of Riley Leonard’s most prolific passing game (255 yards) in a Notre Dame uniform almost had a chance to upgrade into a happily-ever-after infused with a not-so-subtle poetic twist.
However, Ohio State’s ability to convert a third-and-11 just ahead of the second-half 2:00 timeout in its 34-23 CFP National Championship Game victory over ND, on Jan. 20 in Atlanta, turned that notion into a forever hypothetical, as the Irish didn’t get the ball back until the lead was too invincible and the time left for a miracle too invisible.
But in the biggest moments of seemingly the most significant season of Notre Dame football in the post-Lou Holtz Era (1997-present), Leonard the passer showed up.
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Why that’s relevant as Notre Dame moves on from the record-setting running QB (906 yards, 17 rushing TDs) and starts to outline its next chapter with Steve Angeli, Kenny Minchey or CJ Carr rising to the top of the quarterback depth chart is twofold:
1) The proven ability of offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and QBs coach Gino Guidugli to develop a quarterback that could get them in the national title mix.
2) Reinforcing Denbrock’s and head coach Marcus Freeman’s notion that the next stage in Notre Dame’s offensive evolution needs to nudge it toward being more run/pass balanced and proficient, more explosive in the pass game, and putting a premium on pass efficiency.
Without taking the run for granted.
To point No. 1, Leonard’s collective pass efficiency rating after four games this past season — versus Texas A&M, Northern Illinois, Purdue and Miami (Ohio) — was 100.59. His collective pass-efficiency rating during ND’s four playoff games … 134.63, against the nation’s No. 1, 2 and 7 team ranked in total defense and a fourth, in Georgia, with three projected 2025 first-round draft picks on a unit that somehow only managed to finish 30th.
His playoff peak was 161.4 against the Buckeyes, the nation’s No. 1 team in total defense. It also happened to be his best mark against a Power conference opponent since lighting up the nation’s No. 107 total defense/No. 124 pass-efficiency defense for a 205.2 rating back on Oct. 12 in a 49-7 romp over Stanford.
For the season, the Irish finished 49th in team pass efficiency, so a testament to the creativity and resourcefulness of the coaching staff to translate that into a team that finished in the top 10 in scoring offense and didn’t let the middling mark be a dead end on the way to Atlanta.
Which is even more impressive considering an eye toward point No. 2: National title teams don’t profile like that in one of the five most reliable metrics consistent with title teams (rush offense, rush defense, total defense and turnover margin are the others).
Consider, with Ohio State finishing third in pass efficiency, the last six national champs have all been in the top eight and the last nine all in the top 20. The only two teams of the 54 in the BCS/Playoff Era (1998-present) to even reach the title game with a team pass-efficiency of 49 or worse are 2024 Notre Dame and the 2012 Irish team that got steamrolled by Alabama, 42-14, quarterback by Everett Golson and tag teammate Tommy Rees.
Had Leonard still had another year of college eligibility, there’s every reason to believe that number would be better in 2025. Given the options that remain for 2025, that number could be significantly higher despite relative inexperience of the quarterbacks.
Because the receiving corps should be better, the offensive line should be better, Jeremiyah Love and a loaded running backs room is back, and the QB options have the traits that should give ND a chance to be an elite pass-efficiency team.
The work starts in a compressed winter workout timetable, with most of the players involved in the longest-ever Irish football season restarting on Monday.
There’s work to do on defense too, despite Al Golden’s 3.0 and final version of his Irish D winning statistical national championships in three key categories — No. 1 in defensive touchdowns scored, No. 1 in takeaways and No. 1 for the second year in a row in pass-efficiency defense.
Improving the Irish rush defense must become a priority for Golden’s successor at defensive coordinator, Chris Ash. The high-water mark, in Golden’s otherwise stellar schematic suite, was a meh No. 26 national ranking in run defense in 2022. It was 49th this past season.
Consider that more than half of the 27 national champions in the BCS/Playoff Era were top five in run defense, that five out of the top 10 nationally in the 2024 stats made the playoff field this season, and that only Clemson — at 85th — was lower-ranked than ND in run defense among the 12-team playoff field.
The lowest ranking, in fact, among the last four national champs in that metric was Michigan, at No. 5 in 2023. Historically, Miami at No. 40 is the lowest ranking of any national champ going all the way back to at least ND’s last national title in football, in 1988.
And six of the seven Irish national championship teams crowned since the NCAA began archiving its national rankings in 1946 were top 10 run defenses, with the outlier being the 1947 titlists, who were still a respectable 20th.
That vulnerability for the 2024 Irish showed up big in the national championship game, with the Buckeyes — the No. 58 team in rushing offense — amassing 214 rushing yards and averaging 5.2 yards per carry.
When it comes to enhancing the Irish run defense, there’s a schematic challenge for Ash, but also a recruiting one. The position group to really keep an eye on in spring is the interior defensive line — and beyond spring in recruiting as well.
Grad senior Gabe Rubio, who got his first career starts in the last three playoff games, senior Donovan Hinish, Louisville grad transfer Jared Dawson and comeback kid Jason Onye, after an extended absence last season, are the key players to watch.
But also key will be the wave of young, unproven players the Irish need to rise, perhaps surprise, in working into rotational spots.
The most experienced of that group is USC transfer Elijah Hughes (126 reps in 2024), a junior-to-be. Junior-to-be Armel Mukam is new with 60, and sophomore-to-be Sean Sevillano Jr. next at 39.
The other non-incoming freshmen are Devan Houstan (10), Brenan Vernon (8) and Cole Mullins (0), who has yet to make his college debut.
Notre Dame’s spring practice start and end date have yet to be released. The Irish 2025 schedule has been, and ND will open the season in the same stadium where it hopes to close it — Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., site of the coming season’s national championship game.
ND’s season-opening opponent there will be a team likely in the preseason top 25, the Miami Hurricanes. That game is set for Labor Day Weekend Sunday, Aug. 31.
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