Before the Notre Dame football team has completed its second practice of preseason training camp, I — and 61 others from across the country — have been tasked with determining whether the Irish are Top 25-worthy in the Associated Press’ preseason college football poll.
And we’ll do that for the rest of the 133 FBS teams as well by noon EDT on Aug. 1.
Then the AP powers-that-be will tabulate our ballots and let them incubate for 11 days before releasing them collectively in the form of the preseason poll at noon EDT on Aug. 12.
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I’m not a big fan of first-person columns, but I’m even less of a fan of referring to myself in the third person. So, I’ll default to the lesser of two evils, all in the name of providing some context and insight into a process that gets rendered meaningless seemingly in direct proportion to how I’ve ranked — or didn’t rank — someone’s favorite team.
For the record, this will be my 42nd year covering college football (Lee Corso got fired at Indiana at the end of my first year, I’m THAT old). And most of those have been as an AP voter, though I can’t tell you the exact years. I can tell you the last two years I was not on the panel after I left the South Bend Tribune.
I then became part of the panel for the FWAA-NFF (Football Writers Association of America-National Football Foundation) Super 16 in 2022 and 2023, and I appreciate them for having me. But it’s good to be back with the AP poll, representing insideNDsports.com and the Rivals network.
The first regular-season poll following the Aug. 12 preseason poll will be released on a Tuesday at 2 p.m. (Sept. 3) to accommodate the expanded Labor Day weekend schedule of games. For the balance of the season, they’ll drop at 11 a.m. on Sundays.
I plan to share my ballots each week on The Insider Lounge. In the meantime …
You have questions. I have, telepathically, tried to anticipate them and provide answers.
Is the preseason poll predictive of how you think the top 25 teams will line up at the end of the season or a snapshot of where they are at the start?
There is not a prescribed guideline on his particular topic. I lean into where I think the teams will finish for my preseason poll. But it is nothing more than an educated/researched guess.
My regular-season polls then become snapshots of where the teams are at that point in the season, with me gaining more info every week with which to make that determination. For me, every week counts. So, if a team has a close call with a lesser team or a big upset win, you still have to look at the entire season up to that point to give them a fair ranking. It’s not just based on that week.
Are there ANY guidelines for poll voters?
Yes, and the biggest way to get booted off the panel forever is missing a voting deadline or omitting a team by mistake that affects the poll, likely a top 10 team.
And these actual guidelines are directly from the AP: “Base your vote on performance, not reputation. Avoid regional bias, for or against. Your local team does not deserve any special handling when it comes to your ballot. Pay attention to head-to-head results. Please be advised: ‘homerism’ will be challenged and could lead to dismissal from the poll board.
“Don’t hesitate to make significant changes in your ballot from week to week. There’s no rule against jumping a 16th-ranked team over the eighth-ranked team if No. 16 is coming off a big victory and No. 8 survived an unranked team. Teams playing under NCAA sanctions are eligible for AP polls.”
What’s the worst insult someone has hurled at you over the way you voted a particular team?
The assertion that my mother drives a beer truck.
Does she?
Nope, but at age 94 she still drives a car and still teaches yoga classes, which she’s done since the late 1960s. And I’m pretty sure she’s never looked at my ballot and absolutely sure she has never cared who I voted for.
What’s the most creative critique of your ballot?
Someone from Wake Forest years ago sent me a spreadsheet.
What’s the dumbest critique of your ballot?
A Nebraska fan (and keep in mind, they tend to be both smart and classy) was mad, because he thought my less-than-bullish opinion of the Huskers would keep the coaching staff from getting raises, thereby opening up the possibility another school could poach them. On top of that, he didn’t disagree with my ranking, but just was mad about what he thought it might lead to.
Does it get worse than insults?
Yes, when the polls actually used to determine the eventual national champion, people let you know through the U.S. mail that they were mad and what they wanted to do to you with that anger.
So, you’re happy now the AP poll is meaningless?
I wouldn’t take on the responsibility if I thought it was meaningless. It is less consequential than when polls determined the national title or even were part of the BCS formula, but I believe they are still meaningful in their own way. And that’s why I’m willing to put a couple of hours in after all the games are done and I’m done with my own writing/posting duties to do my research and put together my Top 25.
After a night game, that means getting to bed between 6 a.m. and 7 a.m.
Doesn’t that suck?
Please, I’m getting paid to watch college football.
So, at the beginning of the season, when some teams challenge themselves and some feast on cupcakes, how do you make reasonable comparisons?
One thing I keep an eye on is metrics. And there are five key metrics that most championship teams excel at or at least are competent — rushing offense, team pass efficiency, turnover margin, rush defense and total defense.
If a team fares well in those against a strong opponent, even in a close loss, it gives me the confidence that’s probably going to hold up long term. And if a team struggles in those areas against a weak opponent, it’s probably going to be exposed at some point.
Do you feel you have a responsibility to defend your ballot?
I think in the preseason and early season, no. But I think you should be able to explain. Once the season gets into November and there’s more data and the teams are more connected by that data, yes, I think if you are an outlier, you need to be able to defend that vote.
Last year, I liked Washington better than most voters and from fairly early in the season. They did NOT pass my metrics test, but they played an incredibly challenging schedule and found ways to win.
The fact that they made it to the national title game reinforces my decision to go out on a limb for them,
Are all of your outlier votes so successful?
Sadly, there are receipts that would suggest otherwise.
Are outliers a problem for the poll?
They shouldn’t be. That’s why there are 62 of us. There are four national voters and 58 others spread across the U.S., with a formula for how many and where that ties into the number of FBS schools in a particular state.
The volume of voters and the geography of them tends to neutralize outlier ballots and theoretically mitigates, if not eliminates, regional biases.
What would you say to someone who still whines about the AP poll process?
Hmmm … your mother drives a beer truck?
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