The most insightful scrap from Tuesday night’s cluttered snapshot of a Notre Dame football playoff portrait that gets finalized on Sunday was not its penultimate ranking/seeding, but a little clarity on who its first-round playoff opponent WON’T be.
Little being the operative word.
And for the record, Notre Dame was ranked fourth Tuesday night by the College Football Playoff selection committee, behind 1. Oregon, 2. Texas and 3. Penn State.
The intrigue of whether the Irish would jump Penn State (11-1) in the CFP Top 25 after the Irish (11-1) handed USC (6-6) its worst loss of the season on Saturday, 49-35 in LA, was spoiled by Michigan’s upset of previously second-ranked Ohio State on Saturday.
Which gives the Nittany Lions a 13th game, playing No. 1 Oregon (12-0) in Saturday night’s Big Ten Championship Game. Penn State edged the Trojans 33-30 in overtime back on Oct. 12, an interesting comparative data point.
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That Penn State-Oregon matchup now figures to determine, more than anything else from this point forward, where Notre Dame lands in the finals rankings and seedings in Sunday’s four-hour College Football Playoff reveal on ESPN that will also include the final rankings, bowl matchups and both genuine and manufactured consternation.
If Penn State upsets the Ducks, both likely would be ranked ahead of ND, and the Irish would likely be seeded sixth. If Oregon wins, especially if it’s not a white-knuckler, the Irish would likely be the 5 seed, ahead of the Nittany Lions.
As a reminder, the four conference champions with the highest rankings get seeded 1-4 in the first-ever 12-team bracket AND receive first-round byes. That’s why Notre Dame’s seeding doesn’t match its ranking, with the best possible seed position being No. 5.
The fifth-highest-ranked among nine conference titlists also gets included into the 12-team field, just not preferred seeding or a bye.
Seeds 5-8 host seeds 12-9 in first-round games on Dec. 20/21. The quarterfinals are Dec. 31/Jan. 1, the semis are on Jan. 9/10 and the championship game in Atlanta on Jan. 20.
Beyond the Big Ten title game directly affecting Notre Dame’s playoff path and final ranking, five of the other nine title games this weekend will likely figure in to their seeding, their playoff opponent and their ranking/perceptions.
Those five are the SEC (Georgia vs. Texas), ACC (SMU vs. Clemson), Big 12 (Arizona State vs. Iowa State), Mountain West (Boise State vs. UNLV) and American Athletic (Army vs. Tulane).
Behind the Irish from 5 through 12 in the rankings — for the next five days — are 5. Georgia (10-2), 6. Ohio State (10-2), 7. Tennessee (10-2), 8. SMU (11-1), 9. Indiana (11-1), 10. Boise State (11-1), 11. Alabama (9-3) and 12. Miami (10-2).
So, from this configuring and the unsettled conference titles, ND’s first-round opponent at Notre Dame Stadium will come from a pool of Mountain West, Big 12, ACC teams as well as Alabama or Indiana.
In Tuesday's simulated bracket, the Irish would host Alabama. But that can change.
Seemingly eliminated by the Tuesday rankings are No. 14 South Carolina (9-3), No. 13 Ole Miss (9-3) and No. 12 Miami.
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
FRIDAY
(All times Eastern)
CUSA: Western Kentucky (8-4) vs. Jacksonville State (8-4) , 7 p.m., CBSSN
Mountain West: UNLV (10-2) vs. Boise State (11-1), 8 p.m., FOX
AAC: Tulane (9-3) vs. Army (11-1), 8 p.m., ABC
SATURDAY
Big 12: Iowa State (10-2) vs. Arizona State (10-2), noon, ABC
MAC: Ohio (9-3) vs. Miami, Ohio (8-4), noon, ESPN
SEC: Georgia (10-2) vs. Texas (11-1), 4 p.m., ABC
Sun Belt: Marshall (9-3) vs. Louisiana (10-2), 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Big Ten: Penn State (11-1) vs. Oregon (12-0), 8 p.m., CBS
ACC: Clemson (9-3) vs. SMU (11-1), 8 p.m., ABC
2024-25 CFP schedule, dates, TV channel, sites Â
All times Eastern
FIRST ROUND (Dec. 20-21)
Friday, Dec. 20: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 21: 12 p.m. | TNT
Saturday, Dec. 21: 4 p.m. | TNT
Saturday, Dec. 21: 8 p.m. | ABC/ESPN
QUARTERFINALS (Dec. 31-Jan. 1)
Fiesta Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Tuesday, Dec. 31 | ESPN
Peach Bowl: 1 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
Rose Bowl: 5 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
Sugar Bowl: 8:45 p.m. Wednesday, Jan. 1 | ESPN
SEMIFINALS (Jan. 9-10)
Orange Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Thursday, Jan. 9 | ESPN
Cotton Bowl: 7:30 p.m. Friday, Jan. 10 | ESPN
CHAMPIONSHIP
CFP National Championship Game: 7:30 p.m. Monday, Jan. 20 | ESPN
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