Key storylines: Navy vs. Notre Dame
Anticipation annually runs hotter than its actual value when the first College Football Playoff Poll is released this time every year.
It happened again Tuesday night when Notre Dame (7-1) checked in at No. 10, two spots lower than its No. 8 Associated Press ranking.
Many weekends and many games remain, but based on these initial rankings, if Notre Dame hopes to be considered for a playoff berth, style points will mean everything during its last four games, because “what have you done for me lately” appears to matter much to this committee.
• Undefeated Oklahoma (9-0) — a perennial playoff participant — ranks No. 4 in this week’s AP Top 25 but struggled in recent weeks and checked in at No. 8 in the CFP Poll.
• Undefeated Cincinnati (8-0) — the No. 2 team in the AP Top 25 and Notre Dame’s only loss this season — also slumbered through its two previous games and checked in at only No. 6 in the first CFP Poll.
Based on these initial CFP rankings, it’s clear that Notre Dame needs to roll its final four opponents — an unranked group with a combined 14-19 record — big and impressively to even be considered for a top-four spot.
Yet, after the unveil, the problem became how Notre Dame can earn a playoff bid if Cincinnati wins out, and how Notre Dame can earn a playoff bid if Cincinnati doesn’t win out.
In the meantime …
Flipping the strategy script
I’ve made it no secret that by overcoming the key player losses after last year on both sides of the football and getting this team to 7-1 makes 2021 Brian Kelly’s best coaching job during his 12 seasons at Notre Dame.
Just compare today’s team with the Irish from a couple of months ago when it played Florida State and Toledo.
That said, Kelly’s unique coaching challenges are far from over.
With No. 2 Cincinnati as the only one of Notre Dame’s 12 regular-season opponents ranked in this week’s AP Top 25 Poll — though Wisconsin (5-3) checked in at No. 21 in the first CFP Poll — this year’s schedule didn’t provide an overabundance of quality, but it certainly offered plenty of diverse opponents for Kelly and Co. to sort through.
Following its bye weekend on Saturday Oct. 16, the Notre Dame defense was asked to stop two quarterbacks in consecutive games who are projected as 2022 first-round draft picks in Kedon Slovis at USC and Sam Howell at North Carolina.
And after winning both of those games by double digits, Notre Dame must flip its defensive script this week and focus on controlling Navy’s unique and sometimes puzzling triple-option rushing offense.
It’s a seismic strategy switch that no other coaching staff in the country will face this season.
“These [Navy] games are never easy because you’re playing a style of football that goes contrary to what you’ve been teaching for the past four months,” Kelly said.
But that’s not all.
Following the Navy game, the Irish coaches and players must “re-flip” their defensive strategy before playing at Virginia against the nation’s No. 2 passing offense that averages 401.0 aerial yards per game.
To further illustrate the contrasting profiles of Navy and Virginia, the Midshipmen have 472 total passing yards in eight games this season while Cavaliers junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong — whose immediate and longer-term availability is being evaluated after suffering a rib injury Saturday against BYU — has single-game passing performances this season of 487 yards against Louisville and 554 yards against North Carolina.
Don’t dismiss the Middies
After becoming one of the best do-more-with-less coaches in the country, 14th-year Navy frontman Ken Niumatalolo finds himself trying to right the ship after his program has fallen on hard times, winning only five of its 18 games since the start of 2020.
Niumatalolo has beaten Notre Dame four times in 13 tries, two of those against Kelly (2010, 2016).
As a 21-point favorite, the Irish are expected to win a fourth straight in the series on Saturday.
But given the aforementioned scheduling dynamics and the fact that Navy has played its best football the last two weeks — a 27-20 loss to No. 2 Cincinnati Oct. 23, as a 28.5-point underdog; and a 20-17 win at Tulsa last Saturday as an 11-point underdog — nothing can be taken for granted against an unorthodox opponent.
Is Kyle Hamilton’s college career over?
Yikes! It seems like he just got here.
With an ornery knee injury keeping Hamilton out against Navy for a second straight game, Coach Kelly was asked if we’ve seen the last of his All-American safety at Notre Dame.
And while Kelly suggested that Hamilton will be back this season, the coach also explained that much evaluation and risk-reward consideration needs to go into whether this projected top-10 2022 NFL pick needs to shut it down or return and potentially jeopardize his future draft status.
Elite players are increasingly using caution before valor when weighing injury risk versus draft rewards.
“He’ll have all the information in front of him, and we’re going to support him 100 percent, whatever it is,” Kelly said of any forthcoming decision Hamilton might make. “Again, that’s the nature of where we are today in college football. Guys got to make those kinds of decisions, but we’ll support him, he’s been a great teammate.”
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