Friday Five: Why Notre Dame’s 2021 opener feels similar to 2019’s
Brian Kelly brought up Notre Dame’s 2019 opener at Louisville in his Monday press conference when discussing the Irish’s Sunday trip to Florida State that kicks off 2021.
There are a lot of similarities: upstart opponent with some talented skill players, a packed stadium, a standalone night game. Louisville was 2-10 the year before and playing its first game under a new coaching staff. The Cardinals pushed the Irish for a half, before Notre Dame found its footing and won 35-17. It also aged well as a victory — Louisville finished 8-5.
The more I think about the 2021 opener and the more we’ve learned in the last month, I see a similar script playing out Sunday night. A month ago, I wasn’t thinking Notre Dame would lose this game, but I thought the winner might not top 25 points and the final margin would be single digits.
Now, after seeing Notre Dame’s offense in fall camp, it should have enough firepower to approach 30 points, even if it’s still working through some kinks at the start. It won’t be playing a stout defense either.
At the same time, if Florida State starts Jordan Travis at quarterback, I think it’s likely the Seminoles put some pressure on the Irish defense with the zone-reads and option runs. Just like they did for a half last year. Just like Louisville did in the first two quarters in 2019 with a similar game plan.
Like 2019, the Irish defense has enough new pieces that it might need a quarter or two before finding its footing against an offense that requires discipline to stop. There are two new starters at linebacker (also like 2019) Florida State could target in the run game.
Notre Dame has too talented and too well-coached a defense not to eventually quell Florida State’s offense, though, and control the game for the final 15 minutes. I think Notre Dame covers the single-digit spread.
2. 21 personnel
I counted 29 plays where Notre Dame used two-back sets last year. They ran just 10 plays in 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end), with only one of those coming in the final six games. Six pass attempts and four rushes in 21 personnel led to 75 total yards.
All told, it just wasn’t part of the Irish’s offensive repertoire.
But the way Kelly and offensive coordinator Tommy Rees discuss two-back usage this year, Notre Dame might run 10 plays in 21 personnel during the opening game alone.
The Irish want to involve running backs Kyren Williams and Chris Tyree as much as possible and in as many ways as possible. Two-back sets and 21 personnel are the logical starting point for increasing an already high workload for them. With Michael Mayer as the tight end, 21 personnel puts three of Notre Dame’s most dynamic players on the field together.
“It’s putting another playmaker on the field for us we can move around into different formations and sets,” Kelly said. “21 breaks out for us into no-back. It breaks out into 11 personnel because of the multiplicity we have with one in particular – Kyren – who can move around.”
Expect to see Williams in the slot and Tyree in the backfield in many of the 21 personnel snaps. Notre Dame might put both in the backfield. Or go empty with both in the slot. How Rees deploys two-back sets will be a captivating subplot to Sunday’s opener at Florida State and the whole season.
The screen game possibilities in particular feel endless. Williams’ route tree from the slot likely won’t be limited to screens and 5-yard outs either.
3. Assistants on the rise
The final weeks leading up to the first slate of games is unofficial “assistant coaches to watch list” season. Sure enough, The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman and ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg each put out lists of coaches who will likely be in the mix for promotions at season’s end. Both contained a few Notre Dame assistants.
Feldman’s list of 43 mentioned defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman, special teams coordinator Brian Polian and running backs coach/run-game coordinator Lance Taylor. Rittenberg’s included Freeman and Rees. What could be a possible next step for each, and when? I have some thoughts.
• Freeman: He’s the clear candidate to be the next head coach hired off this Notre Dame staff. (Yes, that’s what Kelly meant in that viral comment removed of necessary context). He has already interviewed for head-coaching jobs. Yes, he still needs to coach a game for the Irish, it’s hard to imagine him spending more than three years as their defensive coordinator.
It’s also feels unlikely his first head-coaching job is at a lower Group of Five program after this year. Freeman can be picky. If he’s successful in this job for even a year, he should be able to fetch a head-coaching position at a mid-level Power Five institution. He already interviewed for one (Illinois) before coming to Notre Dame. Cincinnati would also make sense if his mentor, Luke Fickell, leaves for another job.
Lastly, I’m not a proponent of geographical fit. If a coach is good at his job, he will succeed no matter where it’s located. Freeman strikes me as someone who would be comfortable in any setting.
• Polian: He was fired in 2016 after four seasons at Nevada, but still took the Wolf Pack to a pair of bowl games. MAC or Conference USA teams that have openings in December could do much worse than him if they want someone who might stick around longer than an up-and-coming coordinator or position coach. The word is Polian, 46, wants another shot at being a head coach.
• Taylor: He probably has a choice to make for his next step: be a coordinator, perhaps at a lower Power Five school, or be a head coach at a lower Group of Five program. He was in the mix for the head-coaching vacancy at South Alabama – a job in his home state – this past offseason. Both options feel realistic in short order.
• Rees: The next step for a well-regarded Notre Dame coordinator is rarely another coordinator spot. Rees is the better bet of the Irish’s two coordinators to be here in 2023. He’s at his alma mater working for his mentor.
Another two successful seasons should be enough to generate some real attention from MAC teams. Will he want to go that route, though, if he’s successful in building a dynamic offense at Notre Dame? The 29-year-old Rees could also be content to stay for a few more years, especially if it could help make him a candidate for some Power Five jobs.
4. Tight end recruiting
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: Notre Dame has landed a highly ranked tight end.
It’s becoming a yearly occurrence and a more frequent one than earlier in Kelly’s tenure. Concord (Calif.) De La Salle's Cooper Flanagan, a 2023 target who committed Thursday, is the seventh four-star tight end to pick Notre Dame since the 2017 cycle. The prior six: Brock Wright (2017), Cole Kmet (2017), George Takacs (2018), Michael Mayer (2020), Kevin Bauman (2020), Holden Staes (2022). Wright, Kmet and Mayer were top-100 recruits.
From 2010-16, Notre Dame signed five four-star tight ends, with Ben Koyack (2011) as the lone top-100 prospect.
Tight end recruiting before 2017 was good. Since then, it has pushed through to great.
5. Basketball’s big visits
Notre Dame basketball did well to get top 2022 target and four-star guard J.J. Starling on campus for an official this weekend – before he sees Syracuse (the hometown school) and Duke later this month. Sure, it would’ve been nice to host him on a home football weekend, but that’s splitting hairs. What matters is he’s coming to campus.
The Irish staff also did quick work with Scottsdale (Ariz.) Sunnyslope forward Elijah Saunders. He added a Notre Dame offer on Aug. 17. He’s coming on a visit this weekend. It sounds like a “late” offer, but he didn’t garner serious high-major attention until this summer. Notre Dame has a chance to make a real move with him this weekend.
It’s a good start. Notre Dame needs more than one big visit weekend in this class, though. It’s fair to be disappointed the Irish couldn’t get four-star Severn (Md.) Archbishop Spalding wing Cam Whitmore to visit. He’s a legacy recruit Notre Dame has targeted since early spring.
The Irish were enamored with Whitmore’s skill set and athleticism. They would’ve faced a tough battle to land him, but the first step to winning it was hosting him for a visit. Instead, he did not include Notre Dame in his top three of Illinois, North Carolina and Villanova.
Notre Dame did strong covert work on Orlando Christian Prep (Fla.) forward Ven-Allen Lubin, who put the Irish in his top seven Monday and is set to visit campus next month. The 6-8, 205-pound forward is a lethal transition scorer with impressive leaping ability and a good handle for his size. He would be a good frontcourt compliment to commit Dom Campbell, who is a true center.
----
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, Blue & Gold Illustrated.
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
• Sign up for Blue & Gold's news alerts and daily newsletter.
• Subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts.
• Follow us on Twitter: @BGINews, @Rivals_Singer, @PatrickEngel_, @tbhorka and @ToddBurlage.
• Like us on Facebook.