Friday Five: What’s The 2019 Class’ Junior-Year Outlook?
I wrote last week Notre Dame’s 2018 recruiting class’ lighter than expected impact rests in its lack of junior-year starters compared to prior classes. Only center Jarrett Patterson and tight end Tommy Tremble were starters from beginning to end. That’s less than a third of the 2016 and 2017 class’ junior-year starters.
A natural follow-up is to wonder about the 2019 class’ junior-year impact.
It will assuredly be better than 2018. The class has already produced two full-time underclassmen starters: running back Kyren Williams, safety Kyle Hamilton. That matches 2018. Two more feel like near-certainties to start as juniors: center Zeke Correll and defensive end Isaiah Foskey. That’s four, which would match the unquestioned junior-year starter output of the 2015 class.
The ceiling for 2019’s number depends on linebacker Marist Liufau, linebacker Jack Kiser, cornerback Cam Hart and guard Andrew Kristofic. They were all competing to start this spring. All four starting seems unlikely. Two, though, is a fair expectation.
Kiser and Hart exited spring as the perceived favorites at rover and boundary corner, respectively. Liufau ended last year as a starter and is battling Shayne Simon at Will linebacker. Kristofic took some first-team reps this spring, but his chances ultimately hinge on Patterson’s eventual position.
Another interesting note and a 2018-to-2019 parallel: defensive tackle Howard Cross III appears to be on a Jayson Ademilola-like path.
Ademilola was an impact rotation player as a sophomore and junior before sliding into the starting lineup as a senior. Cross cracked the rotation as a sophomore and will be in it again this fall. His slipperiness, quickness and versatility are valuable. Notre Dame will have at least one starting defensive tackle spot open. If Cross continues his current trajectory, he will be heavily in the mix for it.
I only looked at offense and defense when examining a class’ junior-year starters, but Jay Bramblett earning the punter job as a freshman adds to the 2019 group’s impact.
2. Where 2018 Goes From Here
Another follow-up inquiry to 2018’s two true junior-year starters is the senior outlook for the class.
Heading into 2021, Patterson and Ademilola are clear starters. Tremble was a third-round pick. How many classmates can join them?
• The plausible best case: Simon at Will linebacker, Houston Griffith or D.J. Brown at safety, Kevin Austin Jr. at boundary receiver, Braden Lenzy, Lawrence Keys III or Joe Wilkins Jr. at field receiver, TaRiq Bracy at field/nickel corner.
• The worst case: Griffith or Brown at safety, freshman Lorenzo Styles Jr. at field receiver, Liufau beats out Simon, Bracy isn’t the field or nickel corner, Austin’s injury issues continue and make someone else the boundary receiver.
3. 2018’s Junior Ceiling
One factor in the 2016 class yielding nine junior-year starters was their freshman season. Many of them were pressed into action during a bumpy 4-8 season, did enough well to earn more looks and turned freshman cameos into starting jobs.
That’s not the case with the 2018 group, which entered a less tenuous situation and could wait its turn. It still could have produced more than two 2020 starters. It wasn’t going to reach nine.
The maximum felt like seven. Griffith or Brown had a chance to start at safety. Simon had opportunities last year. Lenzy and Austin would’ve been in the starting lineup if not for injuries. Bracy was on his way to being a wire-to-wire starter before his play declined in November and freshman Clarence Lewis bumped him out of the lineup.
But there was no room for entry into the starting defensive line for Jayson or Justin Ademilola, or Ovie Oghoufo. Bo Bauer was a sub-package mainstay, but Drew White was locked in as the starting middle linebacker. Paul Moala wasn’t leaping Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at rover. George Takacs wasn’t going to keep freshman tight end Michael Mayer off the field (nor was anyone else).
Those players needing to wait another year or two for starting roles was a sign of Notre Dame’s depth, not their inability to win jobs.
4. Primetime Games
Notre Dame played two of its 12 games at night in 2020. It was an outlier number in an outlier season.
This year already has three on the schedule: Sept. 5 at Florida State, Oct. 23 vs. USC and Oct. 30 vs. North Carolina. The other five home games are set for afternoon kickoffs.
Could Notre Dame play half its schedule in primetime? To get there, it would need three of these games to get a night kickoff: Sept. 25 vs. Wisconsin in Chicago, Oct. 9 at Virginia Tech, Nov. 13 at Virginia and Nov. 27 at Stanford.
The first one is the most likely. Sept. 25 is a fairly weak schedule otherwise. Alabama is idle. Ohio State plays Akron. Are Clemson at North Carolina State, West Virginia at Oklahoma, Iowa State at Baylor, Texas A&M vs. Arkansas or Tennessee at Florida more enticing primetime games with higher potential ratings draws? Not undeniably.
Notre Dame’s 2018 early October visit to Virginia Tech was a night game. Will it be appealing enough to give it the same treatment? Notre Dame’s odd-year Thanksgiving weekend trip to Stanford was a night game five straight times until 2019, when Stanford went 4-8. The Cardinal are no longer a top-10-to-15 fixture.
5. Continuity
In an offseason of unprecedented player movement in college basketball, Notre Dame is a rarity with its continuity.
More than 1,600 players have entered the transfer portal. The number of players declaring for the NBA Draft with eligibility remaining has soared in recent years.
At Notre Dame, though, only one player has entered the transfer portal and just one incoming transfer has joined the program. The Irish return 79 percent of their minutes from last season. That would’ve ranked third in college basketball last season and seventh in 2019-20, per KenPom. (Notre Dame was second in minutes continuity in 2019-20).
Yet it’s not easy to sell widespread improvement based on continuity of teams that struggled.
Since 2016-17, there have been 17 major-seven conference teams (Power Five, Big East, American Athletic) that returned at least 66 percent of their minutes after finishing 70th or worse at KenPom. Eight of them finished inside the top 50. Only six made the NCAA tournament or were in KenPom’s projected 2020 field.
A look at those eight:
• 2021 UCLA: KenPom No. 78 in 2020, finished No. 13 and in the Final Four.
• 2021 Missouri: KenPom No. 79 in 2020, finished No. 47 and earned a No. 9 seed in the NCAA tournament.
• 2021 Utah: KenPom No. 114 in 2020, finished No. 44 but with a 12-13 record.
• 2020 Illinois: KenPom No. 84 in 2019, finished No. 30 and a projected No. 7 seed.
• 2019 Washington: KenPom No. 98 in 2018, finished No. 48 and earned a No. 9 seed.
• 2019 Wisconsin: KenPom No. 70 in 2018, finished No. 16 and earned a No. 5 seed.
• 2019 Iowa: KenPom No. 88 in 2018, finished No. 37 and earned a No. 10 seed.
• 2018 Penn State: KenPom No. 87 in 2017, finished No. 19 and won the NIT.
All but one of the six tournament or projected tournament teams did at least one of the following: won at least 20 games the prior season (Washington), was still a projected tournament team the prior year (UCLA), added a top-50 recruit (Iowa, Illinois) or had a returner who finished top-10 in KenPom’s player of the year rankings (Wisconsin).
Missouri is the exception. The Tigers had no freshmen and one sophomore among their eight players who averaged at least 10 minutes per game this year. Seven of the eight were with the team the season before.
Notre Dame, in a way, is like Missouri. It went 11-15 and finished 85th in KenPom. It has five team members who will play their fourth college season this year and two more in their academic senior year. It added zero top-50 recruits.
The Irish brought in Ivy League co-Player of the Year Paul Atkinson Jr. and two freshman ranked between No. 100 and 125 nationally. Notre Dame needs contributions from that trio plus a lot of fourth-year leaps from holdovers to get to the tournament in a year where that’s a must.
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