Friday Five: 2021’s Potential For Notre Dame Streak-Busting
Notre Dame hasn’t lost a game in which it was favored since November 2017 at Stanford, per OddShark – 31 straight wins. It has won 32 straight games against unranked teams. The last 24 Notre Dame Stadium visitors left with a loss.
The Irish have won every game they were supposed to win the last three years. It feels more likely than not they will be favored in all 12 regular season games this year. Yet predicting Notre Dame to go 12-0 feels a bit delusional. I suspect most folks inside the Gug would be pleased if 2021 brought an 11-1 or 10-2 (at worst) record with a non-Playoff New Year’s Six bowl appearance.
That would, though, end some of those impressive “taking care of business” streaks. The wins-as-a-favorite one feels particularly endangered. It would have to end if the Irish aren’t once underdogs in the regular season but don’t run the table.
Onto the home winning streak. October visitors North Carolina, USC and Cincinnati are near-locks to be preseason top-25 teams, if not top-20. The Tar Heels and Bearcats are in the top 15 of most offseason rankings. It’s ideal to draw your best opponents at home, but if a loss comes from that group, the home win streak is done.
Wisconsin is a surefire preseason top-20 team too. But that game is at Soldier Field in late September. A loss would at least keep the home streak alive. (Unless, of course, Notre Dame drops its mid-September home games to Toledo or Purdue, but then it has larger problems).
All told, I’ll predict two of the streaks end, with the program-record unranked opponent streak living on until 2022.
2. Offensive Line
This was Notre Dame’s first-team offensive line on March 27: LT Tosh Baker, LG Dillan Gibbons, C Zeke Correll, RG John Dirksen, RT Josh Lugg.
This was the first-team line in the final spring practices: LT Blake Fisher, LG Rocco Spindler, Correll, RG Andrew Kristofic, Lugg.
Just two holdovers.
We know there will be at least one change from the latter group, because Jarrett Patterson will start somewhere. Notre Dame’s coaching staff probably knows where it will put him on the first day of fall camp, but I’m not sure it’s confident in him staying at that same spot. Developments at other positions may send him on the move again.
I’m setting the over-under of differences between that late-April lineup and the opening night starters at 2.5. With so many inexperienced players competing to start, nothing should be written in ink yet and no lead should be insurmountable. We know from past experience a bad spring doesn’t portend a bad fall.
There’s still a degree of “believe it when you see it” with a freshman starter. Even more so with two freshmen starters. What if someone who struggled this spring impresses in August and forces the staff to change its plans? This is an overhaul that isn’t completed in one spring.
3. Old-School Linebackers
I thought Drew White was Notre Dame’s most under-appreciated starter last year. I think he may earn that same title this year, even though he enters his third season as the Irish’s No. 1 middle linebacker.
This story by ESPN’s David Hale gives a good look at why he seems to go less recognized. The crux: “Old-school” linebackers aren’t the NFL’s preferred flavor. And by extension, fans are often drawn to players who are because early-round picks are usually high-impact ones. There’s no better example than Notre Dame’s defense: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, the man who played next to White, won all the awards and was a second-round pick.
White fits that old-school description. He’s not going to blaze a 40-yard dash. He doesn’t play on third downs unless they’re short yardage. He’s not often asked to handle one-on-one coverage.
Even if he delivers another strong year, it doesn’t seem likely to shake up his draft stock. Take Northwestern’s Paddy Fisher as an example. He went undrafted this year, but ended 2020 as the NCAA’s active leader in tackles and forced fumbles.
All this doesn’t mean White is not useful. He’s physical. He’s around the ball, an active tackler and a strong in-the-box defender. Fisher was a two-time All-American. Any college team would sign up for his kind of impact.
But the margin for error is lower. Owusu-Koramoah could read, react and make a play because of his burst and speed. An “old-school” linebacker like White has to know what to expect before it happens.
A fifth-year senior who has watched countless hours of film, though, should have the instincts that help him produce at the same level as a smaller, faster or more versatile linebacker. And it’s hard to say White hasn’t been productive. Hale’s way of quantifying it: White was eighth among Power Five linebackers in yards per tackle, at 2.1.
4. Playoff Expansion
Last month’s College Football Playoff expansion chatter was different.
The CFP itself said it is studying expansion scenarios – 63 of them. Hearing the CFP say it after years of swatting away such talk all but signals it’s in motion. (But it won’t happen this year or next). The CFP is studying formats with six, eight, 10, 12 and 16 teams.
I hadn’t thought much about anything higher than eight, but I’m intrigued by 12 teams with six autobids. It opens the door for a team to “steal” a bid if it upsets someone in the conference title game. But with 12 instead of six or eight, that thief is also less likely to push out a 10- or 11-win title game loser or some other double-digit victory team.
I bring up bid-stealing, though, to highlight the reason I’m pro-expansion in general.
More access.
The Playoff is predictably the same teams from largely one part of the country. For other sections of America, it’s stale. That apathy shows up in declining TV ratings.
Autobids give every region and conference a reason to care. They also allow teams like Purdue or Virginia a more plausible way in. Those mid-level Power Fives aren’t expected to compete for at-large bids often (if at all), but they can get in if they win their division and pull a league title game upset.
That might not happen very often. But it’s a chance. It’s hope.
That’s what fans and teams want. To feel like they have some title path, even if it comes with long odds. Same with Group of Five teams that go unbeaten. In every other sport, a team can say, ‘If we win all our games, we will be champions” or at least get to play for a championship. Not college football.
I don’t know if a bigger playoff field will create a different outcome than the four-teamer. I doubt it, in fact. But that’s OK. The NCAA tournament often has memorable early-round upsets and still yields two No. 1 seeds or big brands playing for the title. No one seems to mind. A bigger playoff can create a captivating spectacle more of the country enjoys and still effectively put the two best teams against each other for the championship.
5. A Critical Offseason
Mike Brey needs to ace any staff changes he makes.
It’s hard not to see Anthony Solomon’s addition as anything else. When he has been at Notre Dame, the program has been at its best. He’s not the sole cause, but it’s also no accident. His résumé is strong from his prior two stints with the Irish and his recent four-year run at Dayton.
Notre Dame now needs to nail its 2022 recruiting class. It has five team members who will play their fourth college season in 2021-22 (seven academic seniors in total). It would be a surprise if more than one or two used the COVID-19 blanket waiver to play an extra season. In turn, adding five newcomers feels like a reasonable target.
Of course, filling those spots starts with recruiting. Right now, the Irish aren’t making too much noise on the trail. They have offered 10 currently uncommitted 2022 players. Perhaps this year will just start later than normal with visits opening next month and live evaluation periods coming in July, but Notre Dame has been quiet relative to others. Just four ACC teams have at least one player committed, but only three have extended fewer offers.
Adding transfers in the spring under the new immediate eligibility rule allows any team to recover from summer and fall recruiting misses. There’s less of a need to reach on a high school recruit, especially in the fall. Notre Dame frequently mined the undergrad transfer market before the new transfer rules passed. That trend ought to continue.
But in a cycle where Notre Dame has this many openings, it’s important to get two or three high school signees as future building blocks in the November signing period. Can the Irish pull enough of them — and enough of their early identified priorities — from their usual private school demographic? How much will they expand the board this summer?
A strong class can give a clearer sense of direction and create some momentum for the program beyond this season. There’s not much of either right now.
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