The axiom about never needing later in life the math you learned in elementary school never felt more like mythology, it would seem, than for college football fans in the coming week.
For instance, with one regular-season game left for its 16 teams in the deceptively named Big “12” Conference, nine teams remain alive to become its conference champ and gain an automatic bid into the 12-team College Football Playoff by landing a berth in the league championship game. And one of them, West Virginia, is 6-5 overall.
Maybe the “Big” is deceptive too.
At least for Notre Dame fans, the CFP math is minimal for the Irish comparatively, especially if the CFP selection committee mimics on Tuesday night (8 EST, ESPN) what the AP and coaches polls put out Sunday.
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Following its ninth straight win, a 49-14 Shamrock Series TKO of then-19th-ranked Army, Notre Dame (10-1) moved up a spot in each set of rankings to No. 5. Idle Oregon (11-0) remained No. 1 in both, followed by Ohio State (10-1), Texas (10-1) and Penn State (10-1) ahead of the Irish.
Here’s what matters when calculating what the postseason could look like for Notre Dame.
► Win Saturday in Los Angeles against arch-rival USC (3:30 p.m. EST on CBS), and the Irish are in the field and almost certainly hosting a first-round game Dec. 20 or 21 at Notre Dame Stadium.
Win big — in a comparative data point with No. 4 Penn State — and the Irish might be able to move up a seeding spot in the final rankings/seedings on Dec. 8. The Nittany Lions edged the Trojans (6-5) on the road in overtime, 33-30, back on Oct. 12.
A less-interesting commonality between ND and PSU was how bad each made 18th-place Big Ten team Purdue (1-10) look. The Irish handled them on the road 66-7 back in September, while the Nittany Lions more recently drubbed them 49-10.
One final note on USC, which began the season promising enough by taking down Brian Kelly’s LSU Tigers in Las Vegas 27-20 Labor Day weekend, has indeed lost five times this season, but never lost big to this point. A seven-point setback at Minnesota is the largest margin of defeat for the Trojans to date.
The Irish opened Sunday as a seven-point betting favorite per Circa Sports.
► Notre Dame’s highest-possible seed, by rule, is No. 5 because of the requirement that the four highest-ranked conference champs take seeds 1-4. Given that two of those champs would likely be ranked behind an 11-1 Irish team, ND’s most likely seeding is 7, with 6 the most realistic ceiling, even though there are extreme and chaotic scenarios that exist that could push that to 5.
The Irish are one of just four teams in the AP top 15 who are not still in the running to play in a conference championship game Dec. 6 or 7. The others are AP No. 7 Tennessee (9-2), No. 13 Alabama (8-3) and No. 15 Ole Miss (8-3).
Not all of the others will play in conference championship games. Some will be mathematically eliminated this weekend by what other teams do or by what they do.
► What happens to Texas A&M and Army ahead still matters as far as Notre Dame’s résumé is concerned. They are the only two teams in the AP Top 25 that the Irish have played — and beaten.
The Aggies (8-3) took a perceptual hit on Saturday night when they fell 43-41 at Auburn in four overtimes. Army (9-1) will play for the American Athletic Conference title on Dec. 6 against Tulane after taking on UTSA this weekend.
The Black Knights still have a pathway, albeit very narrow, to sneak into the playoff through a back door.
As far as the Power 4 Conference Championship Game scenarios, let’s start with the one that requires the least math.
SEC: The winner of Saturday’s game between Texas and host Texas A&M gets Georgia Dec. 7 in the title game, with that winner getting a top 4 seed. So yes, the Aggies could still make the playoff field AND be seeded higher than the Irish, if they do win out.
ACC: SMU (10-1) is in the title game. If Miami can knock off Syracuse (8-3), the Hurricanes play the Mustangs for the title. If Miami loses, Clemson (9-2) plays SMU.
Big Ten: Oregon has clinched. An Ohio State win over Michigan on Saturday, sends the Buckeyes to the title game and a chance to avenge the one-point loss to the Ducks in Eugene earlier this season.
Penn State needs to beat Maryland (4-7) and an Ohio State loss. Indiana (10-1), meanwhile, needs to beat Purdue and have the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions both lose to reach the title game. If all three lose, then it’s back to Ohio State getting the berth.
Big 12: This will make your head hurt. The Big 12 told CBS Sports there are 250 different combinations of possibilities, which actually doesn’t seem possible. In any case, the simplest way to look at it, if the four teams currently tied in first place at 6-2 all win this coming weekend, it favors Arizona State and Iowa State to play for the title over BYU and Colorado.
► Two of the three times Notre Dame has been deep in the national championship conversation in December/January the Irish included a victory at USC to make it happen (2012 BCS Championship Game and 2018 CFP).
Getting to the 2020 CFP would have required one too. USC was originally on the schedule for the Saturday after Thanksgiving, but the game was canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Instead, the Irish played a Friday road game at North Carolina, ranked 25th, that weekend.
Should the Irish win in LA on Saurday for the first time since the 24-17 victory over USC in 2018, it would boost Marcus Freeman’s November record to 8-2, an .800 record in a small sample size.
And yet it would be the best November winning percentage by an Irish head coach since coaching icon Ara Parseghian finished with an .829 mark upon retiring 50 years ago.
CFP contenders' remaining regular-season opponents
(Using Sunday’s AP rankings)
No. 1 Oregon (11-0): vs. Washington (6-5)
No. 2 Ohio State (10-1): vs. Michigan (6-5)
No. 3 Texas (10-1): vs. at No. 20 Texas A&M (8-3)
No. 4 Penn State (10-1): vs. Maryland (4-7)
No. 5 Notre Dame (10-1): at USC (6-5)
No. 6 Georgia (9-2): vs. Georgia Tech (7-4)
No. 7 Tennessee (9-2): vs. Vanderbilt (6-5)
No. 8 Miami: (10-1) vs. Syracuse (8-3)
No. 9 SMU (10-1): vs. Cal (6-5)
No. 10 Indiana (10-1): vs. Purdue (1-10)
No. 11 Boise State (10-1): vs. Oregon State (5-6)
No. 12 Clemson (9-2): vs. No. 16 South Carolina (8-3)
No. 13 Alabama (8-3): vs. Auburn (5-6)
No. 14 Arizona State (9-2): at Arizona (4-7)
No. 15 Ole Miss (8-3): vs. Mississippi State (2-9)
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