In the most unique college football season in history, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee has less information available to it than ever before as it releases its first ranking of 2020 on Tuesday night. COVID-19 cancellations are forcing the committee to ask itself tough questions about which teams deserve a shot – and sometimes those questions surround a team not playing enough games.
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1. Will the Pac-12 play enough games to get a team in?
The sheer number of games may not be an issue for the committee but the number of quality games that they can use as a barometer could be the bigger problem. Only No. 9 Oregon and No.19 USC are ranked, and neither has looked overly impressive.
The Pac-12 was the last Power Five conference to begin – which didn't happen until November – and because of cancellations, some teams (Arizona State and Utah) have only played one game.
USC and Oregon will be lucky to play seven total games this season and none of their future opponents are likely to be ranked at the time of the matchup, which further limits their opportunities to earn style points against quality opponents.
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Ryan Young, TrojanSports.com:
“This has been the question since the Pac-12 announced it would be restarting well after all the other Power Five conferences. The point of optimism then for the conference was that its partnership with Quidel Corp. for daily rapid-result testing would ensure that the conference at least got its full six-plus-one (either Pac-12 championship game or other extra game) schedule completed, while other conferences may not be as fortunate.
"As it has turned out, the Pac-12 has been hit as hard as any conference by weekly cancellations. So far, the two teams with the best shot at CFP consideration -- USC and Oregon -- have gotten all their games in, but it's kind of like dodging landmines at this point. Those two teams may end up having no COVID-19 concerns in-house, but they can't control the status of their opponent, and so it remains to be seen if they'll even get a full seven games in.
“So that further compromises the conference's CFP outlook, but the biggest factor working against the Trojans and Ducks is that there isn't a game on either schedule that is going to jump out to the CFP selection committee. So it really comes down to what happens elsewhere and whether we simply end up with only three obvious playoff picks and a 7-0 Pac-12 team (if any team gets that many games in) suddenly looks too obvious to turn down.
"As long as Alabama, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Clemson hold serve, I don't see any consideration for the Pac-12. And that's not even considering the other unbeatens. I do think a 7-0 Pac-12 team would get the nod over an unbeaten BYU if everything else fell apart with one of those aforementioned favorites, but a potentially 10-0 Cincinnati team could be an additional obstacle. To summarize, there is simply too much working against the Pac-12 -- both internally and externally -- for me to see a playoff scenario come to fruition.”
A.J. Jacobson, DuckSportsAuthority.com:
“I think seven wins would probably be good enough for a Pac-12 team to make the College Football Playoff under the right conditions. They need to go 7-0 and look good doing it.
“They would also need some help. For a real chance, the Pac-12 would need a couple of the other top four teams under consideration to have at least one loss, assuming those teams played several more games.
“But in this crazy season, anything is possible including a Pac-12 team winning seven games and making the College Football Playoffs.”
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2. Could another team jump Ohio State in the rankings if it has another game cancelled?
It appears very likely that Ohio State will be in the top four of the first rankings when they are released Tuesday night. Where the Buckeyes get slotted, the No. 3 or No. 4 spot, could prove to be very important for how the final rankings look. More on that later.
The short answer is: Yes, a team could jump Ohio State if it ends up having another game cancelled as the Maryland game on Nov. 14 was. Would the committee exclude Ohio State from the playoff if it played only seven games? Probably not, but style points become even more important with every game that gets cancelled.
Would the committee slot Florida ahead of Ohio State if the Gators won the SEC Championship? What happens if Clemson wins the ACC championship in convincing fashion? If Ohio State continues to win big, it'll likely avoid being the odd team out, especially if it is ranked No. 3 instead of No. 4 on Tuesday night.
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Kevin Noon, BuckeyeGrove.com:
“Could another team jump Ohio State? Yes. Should another team jump Ohio State? No.
“Look, if Ohio State were to have a no contest against Illinois, Michigan State or even Michigan, would we know “less” about the Buckeyes than we did before? I think we all know the answer to that one. You don’t need eight, nine or 10 games to know if a team is good or not. Now, we do know that the more games you play, the greater the chance there is that a team could come out flat, miss several key players or just have something exposed over the course of that game.
"But I don’t need much more than four or five games to know who the best teams are and if we are being honest with ourselves, there are about four or five really good teams out there, a handful of teams that may be a rung lower on the ladder and then just everyone else.
“So no, I don’t believe Ohio State should be punished, especially if a game cancellation arose that was not their fault this season.”
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3. Are Notre Dame and Clemson locks to make the playoff if they play the rest of their games?
Not necessarily. If Notre Dame wins this weekend at North Carolina, and doesn’t have a hiccup prior to the ACC championship game, and doesn’t get blown out in that title game rematch against Clemson, it’ll probably be in the playoff.
Clemson has to not only play, but win the rest of its games to get into the playoff. A really puzzling scenario emerges if Clemson wins out, beating an undefeated Notre Dame in the ACC championship, and Florida wins out, beating an undefeated Alabama in the SEC championship. The committee would have a very hard time sorting that out.
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Patrick Engel, BlueAndGold.com:
“I’d be hesitant to say locks, because at this point, we’re just guessing how the committee will evaluate this season full of uneven schedules and few meaningful non-conference games. I’ll answer this under the assumption that Notre Dame and Clemson are 11-1, with each handing the other a loss. That’s the only way I can see both getting into the playoff field, provided Notre Dame is competitive in the conference title game rematch. If so, those will be two strong resumes that are difficult to match. The happenings in other conferences can help (or hurt) the case.
“It feels safe to write out the Big 12 and its zero teams with fewer than two losses. No one has given the Pac-12 much of a chance, but I’m curious to see what the committee does with Oregon and Ohio State. If both are safely top-10 teams, maybe the committee is more eye-test reliant than we thought, and that pushes the door further open for unbeaten teams that play a single-digit number of games
“I’d also pay attention to the SEC if Florida manages to beat Alabama in the SEC title game. That’s where things get interesting and the resumes of Notre Dame, Alabama, Florida and Clemson would be pretty similar. I’ve come not to expect the committee to do much with Group of Five teams.
“The committee says the number of games won’t be taken into consideration, but it’s difficult to read too much into that without seeing how the rankings unfold. For now, I’d be hard-pressed to see them pass on an 11-1 team with a top-five win, several pastings of inferior opponents and a respectable, competitive loss as its lone blemish.”
Larry Williams, TigerIllustrated.com:
“I’m probably not the best person to consult with questions about "locks" for anything. College football in general punishes assumptions; college football in 2020 decapitates them.
“I will say Notre Dame took a big step with its victory over Clemson in South Bend, even against short-handed Clemson. The Irish so badly needed a certifying moment like that almost more for their own good than for any perceptual benefits.
“I know quite a few Clemson fans are assuming a full-strength Tigers squad wipes the floor with the Irish if indeed the two teams meet in the ACC title game. I'm not as convinced, though. Notre Dame looks like a really good, veteran team to me, one that is going to be able to control the line of scrimmage against almost everyone it plays.
“These look like two CFP teams to me.”
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4. Is this the year when a non-Power Five team makes the playoff?
If a non-Power Five team can’t get in the playoff this year then it’s probably never going to happen but Cincinnati and BYU will still need some help to make their dreams a reality. Obviously, they’ll need to go undefeated the rest of the way and winning by big margins can only help.
After that, it can get a little complex but to sum it all up, if the top three teams (presumably Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State) win out, Cincinnati will have a pretty good chance at making the playoff. It’s going to be very hard for BYU to jump the Bearcats unless it finds a way to add another game. The rumored game against Washington would be huge for BYU’s chances. Winning that game could push the Cougars ahead of Cincinnati.
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Kelly Quinlan, BearcatReport.com:
“I think this is a year where you could see a non-P5 team make the CFB playoff, but it will be hard because Clemson is probably going to beat Notre Dame in a rematch, and would the committee leave out the Irish if their only loss is in the ACC championship game? If Notre Dame wins the ACC, then that opens the door for Cincinnati or BYU. Assuming the other teams are Alabama, Ohio State, and Notre Dame that win those three conferences. The Big 12 has no shot at the playoffs with every team having two losses and the Pac-12 will have a tough argument with the soft schedule Oregon is playing this year.
“The wild card teams are Texas A&M and Notre Dame if the Irish lose in the ACC championship. Those are the two teams that would make it hard for Cincinnati or BYU to make the playoffs. Cincinnati has a better resume than BYU with wins over at least two top 25 teams this season and if Tulsa hangs on to its ranking and the Bearcats beat them, that will be three. BYU has one top 25 win against Boise State. The lack of non-conference games really makes this hard though. Cincinnati had a game at Nebraska and BYU had four P5 games on the original 2020 schedule against Utah, Michigan State, Arizona State and Minnesota. If it had won those games, BYU would walk into the playoffs.”
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