What Recent Grad Transfer RB History Says About Trevor Speights' Potential
Notre Dame’s backfield heading into the offseason was a cast of unproven characters and largely unknown college football commodities.
That’s not to say it is light on talent. Chris Tyree is one of the higher-profile running back recruits Notre Dame has signed under Brian Kelly. Kyren Williams is intriguing because of his versatility. Jahmir Smith and C'Bo Flemister had small roles in 2019.
But its most senior member, Jafar Armstrong, has 505 career yards. The other five have a combined 430. It’s asking a lot for many of them to all of a sudden become a top option. Or in Armstrong’s case, projecting him as a lead back doesn’t feel like a sure thing due to his injury history struggles when given more carries.
So Notre Dame added more experience, securing a commitment from Stanford graduate transfer running back Trevor Speights Thursday night. He’s the fourth grad transfer the Irish have added this year, continuing an anomaly of an offseason trend. He has played four years of college football and could apply for a sixth year of eligibility after the season.
Thing is, Speights is not exactly loaded with in-game experience. He has 95 career carries for 363 yards and has seen the field in only two of those years. For now, it’s hard to peg him as the clear solution given his past.
By unofficial count, Speights will be one of five grad transfer running backs on Power Five teams this season. A combined 10 grad transfers rushers have played for Power Five teams the last two years. Here’s a look at the recent history of their impact and the backfield situation of teams who added them. (BYU is included as a Power Five team for the purposes of a larger sample).
2019 Season
James Gilbert, Kansas State
Prior school: Ball State
Career stats: 2,806 yards (4.7 ypc), 30 TD
Situation: Kansas State lost 1,300 rusher Alex Delton and had no returning running backs who carried the ball in 2018. The Wildcats had signed four freshmen running backs and had a transfer eligible, but that wasn’t enough. They grabbed Gilbert from the MAC, where he starred.
Outcome: Gilbert led the team with 737 yards while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He had six touchdowns. Kansas State had the nation’s No. 47 rushing offense with its overhauled backfield that also featured…
Jordon Brown, Kansas State
Prior school: North Carolina
Career stats: 1,005 yards (4.2 ypc), 8 TD; 46 catches, 342 yards
Situation: Brown was one of two grad transfer running backs Kansas State took before 2019, joining Gilbert in the built-from-scratch running back room. He came in after playing three years as a complimentary piece.
Outcome: Brown was Kansas State’s third-leading rusher, with 380 yards and four touchdowns. He also caught 14 passes.
Armand Shyne, Texas Tech
Prior school: Utah
Career stats: 885 yards (4.5 ypc), 9 TD
Situation: Leading rusher Ta’Zhawn Henry returned, but the three backs behind him all departed. Texas Tech had an ineffective rushing attack where no one ran for more than 370 yards. First-year coach Matt Wells wanted some re-enforcements after signing one running back in 2019. Shyne was available as a bigger, physical back who was Zach Moss’ No. 2 in 2018.
Outcome: Shyne had 374 yards (5.8 per carry) and three touchdowns as the Red Raiders’ third-leading rusher. Texas Tech ranked No. 83 in yards per game.
Tavean Feaster, South Carolina
Prior school: Clemson
Career stats: 1,330 yards (6.0 ypc), 15 TD
Situation: South Carolina returned three of its top four running backs from 2018, leaving its backfield in respectable shape. Its top two rushers were heading into their senior years. Feaster, though, represented a possible game-changer who was simply buried in Clemson’s deep running back room behind All-American Travis Etienne.
Outcome: Feaster split duties with Rico Dowdle and ran for a team-high 672 yards and five touchdowns. South Carolina was 82nd in rushing yards per game.
Ty’Son Williams, BYU
Prior school: South Carolina
Career stats: 799 yards (4.8 ypc), 5 TD; 21 catches, 1 TD
Situation: BYU lost its top three backups behind leading rusher Lopini Katoa, who ran for 423 yards. The Cougars employed a committee backfield, with five players carrying the ball between 59 and 91 times. Williams was in a similar role at South Carolina.
Outcome: Williams ran for 264 yards and three touchdowns for the nation’s No. 68 rushing attack. He was BYU’s fourth-leading rusher.
Emmanuel Eskupa, BYU
Previous school: Rice
Career stats: 778 yards (4.0 ypc), 5 TD
Situation: BYU wanted a second grad transfer and an equally deep backfield as it had the year before. Eskupa, a rotational player on dreadful Rice teams from 2015-18, was available.
Outcome: Eskupa ran for 190 yards and two touchdowns. He was one of five players who had between 46 and 85 carries for BYU.
2018 season
Tre Watson, Texas
Previous school: Cal
Career stats: 1,380 yards (5.1 ypc), 8 TD; 37 catches, 379 yards, 5 TD
Situation: Texas was returning three of its top four running backs, but wanted another body to boost a running game that ranked 96th in yards per game and 110th in yards per carry. Watson was Cal’s second-leading rusher in 2016 before an injury sidelined him for most of 2017.
Outcome: Watson led the 10-4 Longhorns in rushing with 786 yards (4.2 ypc) and three touchdowns. He also caught three touchdown passes. Texas had three players with at least 140 carries, including quarterback Sam Ehlinger, and was 91st in rushing and 104th in yards per rush.
Travon McMillian, Colorado
Previous school: Virginia Tech
Career stats: 2,158 yards, 16 TD; 35 catches, 357 yards, 7 TD
Situation: The Buffaloes needed to replace Phillip Lindsay, who ended his career as the second-leading rusher in school history and set a team record for career all-purpose yards. His 301 carries in 2017 led the FBS. McMillian ran for 1,043 yards as a freshman, but his role decreased the next two years.
Outcome: McMillian led Colorado with 1,009 yards and on a 5.0 per-rush average. Colorado was No. 100 in rushing yards per game.
Jon Hilliman, Rutgers
Previous school: Boston College
Career stats: 2,238 yards (3.7 ypc), 26 TD
Situation: Rutgers wasn’t very good in 2017, but had a passable rushing offense and needed to replace its top two backs. Hilliman rushed for 860 yards and 13 touchdowns as a freshman, but never cleared 4.0 yards per carry in the next four seasons. He was injured for most of 2015 and took a grad transfer after falling behind freshman star A.J. Dillon in 2017.
Outcome: Hilliman had 337 yards, which was third on the team behind a pair of intriguing underclassmen. He ran for a team-high six touchdowns. Rutgers was 106th in rushing offense.
Madre London, Tennessee
Previous school: Michigan State
Career stats: 924 yards (4.0), 8 TD
Situation: Tennessee lost John Kelly, a sixth-round pick and a bright spot on a bad team that made an in-season coaching change. New head coach Jeremy Pruitt picked up London, a career rotation player who ran for 500 yards in 2015 on a College Football Playoff team.
Outcome: London was the Volunteers’ third-leading rusher in a timeshare backfield, with 206 yards and three touchdowns. The top two were also veteran players. Tennessee had the country’s 114th-ranked rushing offense.
Other 2020 RB Grad transfers
Trey Sermon (Oklahoma to Ohio State)
Stats: 2,076 yards (6.1 ypc), 22 TD; 36 catches, 391 yards, 3 TD
Brittain Brown (Duke to UCLA)
Stats: 1,126 yards (5.1 ypc), 10 TD; 17 catches, 218 yards
Khalil Herbert (Kansas to Virginia Tech)
Stats: 1,735 yards, (5.4 ypc), 14 TD
Devonta’e Henry-Cole (Utah to BYU)
Stats: 469 yards (5.2 ypc), 4 TD
With a couple exceptions, the Power Five teams that took grad transfer backs had middling offenses after dipping into the transfer pool. Notre Dame’s offense and overall outlook is much higher than that. There were productive players, but it’s hard to say anyone was a game-changer or brought loads of upside. Part of that is due to the position itself, which has limited ability to change a game in modern college football.
Every backfield situation and player is different. Reading too closely into prior grad transfer history can be a fool’s errand. But knowing the history of production with grad transfer running backs at the highest level helps when trying to determine reasonable expectations for Speights. Going through it shows any expectation for him to be the leading rusher would be rooted in a bold projection.
No grad transfer who led his team in yards did with as shallow a history of production as Speights’. He has nearly 400 fewer yards than any of the 10 Power Five grad transfer running backs from 2018-19. Most of them have held a more central role or were a team’s top rusher at one point in their careers before transferring. For him to be a notable part of Notre Dame’s backfield, he would need to defy that trend.
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