Forgive Pitt if it declines to embrace the sneaky upset team label. Or the hat tips for near-topples of Notre Dame. Or the appreciation for the ability to stay in games. Or even the praise for annually picking off a highly ranked team as a heavy underdog.
It has gotten a little old.
Pitt would actually like to win some of these close calls. Or have its upsets be indicative of the season as a whole instead of a one-off surprise. The 2020 campaign, so far, is a continuation of being “this close.”
Pitt is 3-3 overall and 2-3 in the ACC, with its first two losses coming by one point. The second, a 31-30 loss at Boston College Oct. 10, was sealed by a missed extra point in overtime. It followed a home loss to North Carolina State in which the Wolfpack scored the go-ahead touchdown with 23 seconds left. The most recent defeat was by a 31-19 score at Miami Oct. 17.
“We can do do-you-think, do-you-think, do-you-think,” head coach Pat Narduzzi said. “We aren’t. If you make a couple plays, you’re this far away from being it. So that’s what I think. I don’t know if I can elaborate on it any more than that.
“You’re a few plays away, and we’ve got to win it in the fourth quarter, we’ve got to find a way to finish the darned game.”
There’s the central theme of his six years on the job. Since 2011, no Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) team has lost more games by a touchdown or less than Pitt’s 32, per ESPN’s David Hale. Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 19-17 in one-score contests. That’s 51 percent of his games. Pitt is hard to blow out, but it doesn’t wax many teams either.
“They need to do a better job of closing teams out, putting teams away and pulling away,” Panther-Lair.com publisher Chris Peak said. “But to do that they need to score more and be better on offense. They just haven’t been for a few years now.”
Two of those 32 losses are to undefeated Notre Dame teams in which the Panthers pushed the Irish more than anyone anticipated. They’d like to finish the job this time when they meet again Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Notre Dame’s last loss to Pitt was on the road, 28-21 in 2013. In all likelihood, this upcoming game is Pitt’s best chance to extend its upset streak. In each of the last four seasons, the Panthers have felled a team that won at least 10 games or finished in the top 15 of the final Associated Press poll. The list of victims is impressive. A year-by-year look:
• 2019: UCF (10-3, No. 24)
• 2018: Syracuse (10-3, No. 15)
• 2017: Miami (10-3, No. 13)
• 2016: Clemson (national champion), Penn State (11-3, Big Ten champion, No. 7)
That’s a résumé fitting of a conference title contender. Except Pitt lost at least five games in each of those seasons, turning the perception of those upsets into adorable “Pitt happens” occurrences rather than a plausible arrival as a regular ACC contender.
Win a game it shouldn’t. Lose a couple games it shouldn’t. Pitt is stuck in purgatory, unable to push itself forward but strong enough not to fall back.
“When people talk about Pitt knocking off really good teams, it’s in the context of ‘Pitt’s not very good, but they manage to do this once a year,’” Peak said. “I think the players and coaches resent that and want to believe they’re better, that it’s not this little upstart Pitt team knocked off Clemson, Miami or whoever it is.”
Disappointing Start
This season began with an experienced team and reasonable visions of nine-plus wins. Like Notre Dame, Pitt has a third-year starting quarterback in senior Kenny Pickett, a couple intriguing wide receivers and a veteran offensive line.
But the breakthrough has not yet occurred, and signs of one aren’t too plentiful. Pitt is staring at a possible 3-4 start to the season. An offense that needed to take a step remains stale. A stingy defense largely impressed but sprung a few late leaks in losses. Those are two ingredients of an almost-had-it cocktail. Pickett also sustained an ankle injury against Boston College that caused him to miss the game at Miami.
Pickett’s status for Saturday is not yet clear, Narduzzi said Monday. If he’s out again, redshirt freshman Joey Yellen will start for the second straight week. The transfer from Arizona State threw for 277 yards, but completed just 22 of his 46 pass attempts.
The offense’s persistent problems are rooted in run game futility. The Panthers’ measly 3.5 sack-adjusted yards per carry illustrate a rushing attack missing in action. They have not had a running back top 53 yards in a conference game this season.
“There’s nowhere to run,” Peak said. “No room at all. The O-line is just not opening any holes. … They’re probably worse [on offense] than they were last year.
“They were pretty bad at running the ball last year, and it’s holding back the whole offense.”
There’s one clear playmaker, freshman wide receiver Jordan Addison, who Notre Dame recruited. Of his 55 targets, 36 were on throws that traveled 10 yards or fewer downfield — Pitt’s way of offsetting its absent run game — but he still averages 11.7 yards per catch. For the season, he has 37 receptions for 444 yards and three touchdowns.
Whatever offensive issues arise, the defense has ensured Pitt will be a threat for 60 minutes in just about every game. Narduzzi, a former defensive coordinator, has a defense he can enjoy — even without possible first-round pick defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman, who opted out of the season.
Pitt’s opponents have rushed for just 3.25 yards per carry, and that’s excluding sacks. The Panthers have 29 of those, tops in the FBS and seven more than the next best team. Their average of 4.92 per game is a full sack higher than their nation-best 3.92 from last season. They also lead the country in tackles for loss, with 67, and had 15 tackle for loss against Miami.
“It’s all about stopping the run,” Peak said. “They’ve done a good job of it this year. They did a pretty good job of it last year.”
Fifth-year senior defensive ends Patrick Jones II and Rashad Weaver have picked up Twyman’s disruptive production, with 8.5 tackles for loss each. Jones also leads college football with 7.0 sacks. Eight players have at least 3.5 tackles for loss. First-team All-ACC safety Paris Ford has a team-high three interceptions and is tied for the team lead with 37 tackles (3.5 for loss).
The breakout player is sophomore linebacker SirVocea Dennis, who stepped in for injured all-conference linebacker Cam Bright and posted 11 tackles, with 4.5 for loss, against Boston College.
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