Notre Dame has the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class.
Even in early August, with four months until signing day and a narrow grip on the top spot, it’s a meaningful accomplishment to tout and a sign the Irish’s recruiting operation is pushing upward. It’s a height they have not often reached at any point in a recruiting cycle.
Finishing there, though, would be more meaningful. And much harder.
Getting to this point required a lot of work. To sit at No. 1 on signing day will require much more work – and that still may not be enough. Notre Dame only has so much control of the teams giving chase. And the best-case scenarios for its own class finish aren’t likely to provide enough of a boost to ward all of them off.
Residence atop the recruiting rankings is often fleeting. Classes are assembled at different paces and add their key players at different times, but in the end, most teams sign at least 20 recruits. Rivals’ ranking formula only considers a class’ 20 highest-rated players.
With 21 commitments, Notre Dame is coming into view of the ceiling for its point total; every addition means there’s a subtraction. A new commit is a net gain for total points, but not as big of one as it would be if the class had fewer than 20 members.
At the same time, Notre Dame finishing in the top five feels more within reach after the Irish landed four-star wide receivers Tobias Merriweather (No. 155 overall) and C.J. Williams (No. 29) this week — which vaulted them to No. 1. Those two commitments are oxygen for a top-five finish.
Despite their current standing, top five is a more realistic goal than keeping the top-ranked class. There are two reasons why.
1. No team since 2003 LSU has signed a No. 1 class without landing at least three five-star recruits. Usually, the recruiting national champion has four or more. Notre Dame’s absolute best possible finish includes three five-stars.
2. Many of the usual top-five dwellers are lower in the rankings because their classes are smaller right now but will grow by December.
On the first point, Notre Dame is involved with one five-star prospect, Lynchburg (Va.) Liberty Christian offensive tackle Zach Rice. The Irish brought him on campus for an official visit in June, but aren’t considered the favorite for him at this point.
Even if Notre Dame pulls a heist by signing Rice and sees linebacker commit Jaylen Sneed (No. 46 overall) bumped to five-star status, it would need a Williams bump to reach three. The odds of all three happening are low.
Say Notre Dame pulls off its best-case (and unrealistic) finish to 2022: Rice, a Sneed bump to No. 30 and a five-star, Williams earning a fifth star and staying 29th, four-star defensive tackle Hero Kanu (No. 80), four-star defensive end Cyrus Moss and four-star safety Xavier Nwankpa.
Notre Dame has 2,386 points in Rivals’ ranking system. Adding Rice (211), Sneed (add 23 to his existing status), Williams (add 15), Kanu (157), Moss (155), Nwankpa (186) and subtracting 345 points for the four players they bump would give the Irish 2,788 points – which has not been enough to finish No. 1 in any year since Rivals switched to its current rankings formula in 2013.
On the second point, the jockeying atop the rankings will continue. No. 2-ranked Penn State is 65 points behind Notre Dame, but already has 24 commitments. No. 3 Ohio State trails by 85 points, but has only 15 players in its class.
Can a more realistic finish to this cycle keep Notre Dame ahead of some of them? If the Irish close with a more plausible foursome of Kanu, four-star offensive guard Billy Schrauth, four-star defensive end Anthony Lucas and a Sneed five-star bump, they would have 2,603 points. That’s a top-five class in two of the past nine cycles and a mean finish of 6.8.
To finish in the top five, a class almost always must include a five-star signee. Notre Dame could conceivably end up with none. It could get one if Sneed is elevated or it filches Rice. Since 2013, seven teams have signed a top-five class with just one five-star member, though only 2016 LSU did it with zero.
In the context of the current No. 1 ranking, finishing between fifth and seventh may seem disappointing, but anything eighth or higher would still be the second-best ranking of Brian Kelly’s 13 cycles. Notre Dame’s 2021 No. 9-ranked class holds that designation now).
All told, it’s highly likely Notre Dame drops from No. 1 well ahead of National Signing Day. How far the Irish fall depends on their success closing out the class and the number of usual top-five occupants who take smaller classes or miss on a couple of their highly ranked targets.
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