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Notre Dame Faces Ultimate ‘What Tho’ The Odds’ Situation

Yesterday we featured how Notre Dame will attempt a rare “two-timing” feat by vanquishing two No. 1-ranked teams in the same season.

Auburn achieved it in 2017 (versus Georgia and Alabama that November), and this year the Fighting Irish will have that opportunity when they face the 11-0 and No. 1-ranked Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff semifinal Jan. 1 in the Rose Bowl (held in Arlington, Texas).

Despite its No. 1 ranking, Notre Dame was a 9.5-point underdog versus Alabama in the 2013 BCS Championship.
Despite its No. 1 ranking, Notre Dame was a 9.5-point underdog versus Alabama in the 2013 BCS Championship. (Matt Cashore/USA TODAY Sports)
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Earlier this season, head coach Brian Kelly’s troops defeated then No. 1-ranked Clemson, 47-40 in double-overtime. Last weekend the No. 3-ranked Tigers avenged that setback with a 34-10 drubbing in the ACC Championship to earn the No. 2-seed in the four-team playoff. Thus, a Notre Dame-Clemson III matchup on Jan. 11 is a possibility.

To achieve it, Notre Dame must first pull off what would be classified as the biggest upset since the advent of the CFP in 2014 — and maybe of all time in major bowl annals.

As of Monday night, Alabama was installed as a 19.5-to-20-point favorite against Notre Dame, the highest in the seven-year history of the playoffs. The previous standard was the 2018 Orange Bowl, when the Crimson Tide was a 14.5-favorite over Oklahoma, but did not cover in the 45-34 victory.

Earlier that day, Clemson was an 11.5-favorite over the Irish and recorded a 30-3 victory prior to also demolishing Alabama for the national title more than a week later.

Among the 14 CFP semifinal games (including the two to be played this Jan. 1), four had a team favored by double digits — and Notre Dame was/is that underdog in two of them. The fourth was the 2016 Peach Bowl, semifinal when Alabama was a 14-point favorite versus Washington and won 24-7.

Kelly and Alabama head coach Nick Saban last met in the 2013 BCS Championship. Even though No. 1-ranked Notre Dame was 12-0 and allowing only 10.3 points per game, the 12-1 Crimson Tide was installed as a 9.5-point favorite. As much as the Irish tried to use the “disrespect card,” Alabama displayed its dominance, taking a 28-0 lead by halftime that soon stretched to 35-0 before putting it in cruise control in the 42-14 victory.

To our recollection, the most enormous point spread in a major bowl in which the underdog was victorious was the 1978 Orange Bowl.

No. 7-ranked Arkansas, under first-year head coach Lou Holtz, was not classified in the same class as No. 2 Oklahoma when the matchup was first announced. Then when it was revealed that Holtz had suspended three of his top players for the game, including his star running back and leading wide receiver, the spread was even temporarily taken off the Las Vegas boards before the Razorbacks were installed as an 18-point underdog.

Not only did Arkansas cover the spread, it crushed the Sooners by a 31-6 count. That aided Notre Dame’s vault all the way up from No. 5 to No. 1 and the national title after earlier in the day, as a seven-point underdog, the Irish romped past No. 1 Texas, 38-10, in the Cotton Bowl.

What was classified as the biggest Notre Dame upset in its major bowl history?

A strong case could be made for that demolition of the Longhorns, or even the 1992 Sugar Bowl versus No. 3 Florida in what became known as “The Cheerios” Bowl.

And then there is also one against Alabama. More on that later this week.

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