Key storylines: Notre Dame vs. Virginia
Nothing was surprising Tuesday night when the quizzical College Football Playoff committee released its Week 2 rankings and held together an objective to make No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Alabama, No. 4 Ohio State and eventually No. 8 Oklahoma its four-team playoff field.
No. 9 Notre Dame (8-1) moved up one spot from last week, yet, it still ranks behind four other one-loss teams — No. 3 Oregon (8-1), No. 4 Ohio State (8-1), No. 6 Michigan (8-1) and No. 7 Michigan State (8-1) — even with the only Irish loss coming to No. 5 Cincinnati (9-0).
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The CFP committee vows that steady improvement is an important criteria for selection consideration, and with five double-digit wins in its last seven games, Notre Dame is arguably the most improving team in the country, so what gives?
All eyes on Armstrong
Preparing to play at Virginia on Saturday against what is statistically the most dangerous offense on the 2021 Irish schedule would be difficult enough under normal circumstances for head coach Brian Kelly and Co.
But the availability uncertainty of star junior Cavaliers quarterback Brennan Armstrong makes the coaching challenge even greater.
Before his bye week last weekend, Armstrong suffered a rib injury Oct. 30, against BYU, and Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall is wisely not revealing much about the availability of his All-America candidate for Saturday.
“It literally is day-to-day,” Mendenhall said Monday, when asked for an Armstrong update, “and we’re going to give him every minute, right until the ball is kicked off, to be our quarterback.”
Armstrong ranks second in the country with 395.2 passing yards per game on a team that scores 38.9 points per outing and leads the nation with 545.2 total yards per game.
Kelly explained that what makes Virginia so dangerous on offense is Armstrong’s athleticism and ability to extend plays.
The 6-foot-2, 215-pound playmaker manages that with five pass catchers — including four wide receivers — who average more than 50 receiving yards per game.
Sophomore wideout Dontayvion Wicks ranks 10th in the country with 108.0 receiving yards per game and has nine touchdowns.
“It’s not like we can roll our coverage or drop somebody down and have our eyes on a particular player,” Kelly explained. “And that’s really what makes this offense so difficult to defend because if [Armstrong] does extend the play, these guys are dangerous. And it’s not looking to one guy, it’s four, and that’s problematic.”
What’s most intriguing, and perhaps problematic for Notre Dame, is that after spending an entire practice week preparing for the run-reliant triple-option offense of Navy, it had to flip its defensive script this week.
To illustrate the contrasting profiles of Navy and Virginia in back-to-back games, the Midshipmen have 490 total passing yards this season while Armstrong has single-game passing performances of 487 yards against Louisville and 554 yards against North Carolina.
“His ball can go anywhere,” Kelly said.
Armstrong’s availability remains the top storyline the rest of this week.
Time to shine
Obviously, the loss of Irish graduate student wide receiver Avery Davis for the rest of this season after his knee injury against Navy will be tough to absorb from both a production and a leadership standpoint, especially at a position group already diluted by injury and attrition.
Davis, a team captain, has always been wildly popular among his coaches and teammates, and he is also third on the team with 386 receiving yards and second with four touchdown catches.
“Very disappointed for him,” Kelly said.
But if there is one positive to come from the injury it’s that ready or not, freshman wide receivers Deion Colzie and Lorenzo Styles will inherit larger roles and get a head start on their development before next season.
The loss of Davis leaves Notre Dame with only five scholarship wide receivers on its roster.
The Irish opened training camp with nine scholarship wideouts before sophomore Xavier Watts moved to defense, senior Lawrence Keys III left the team after the season opener and senior Joe Wilkins Jr. damaged his knee against Cincinnati, all before the injury to Davis against Navy.
With nine catches for 160 yards, including one touchdown grab, Styles has played well in limited snaps this season. His 17.8 yards per reception leads the Irish. Colzie has three catches for 51 yards in minimal playing time.
Styles and Colzie were considered the receiving tandem of the future when they arrived at Notre Dame as four-star players.
And given the attrition at this position, their future may start now, which bodes well for years to come.
Depending on the stay-or-go decisions after this season from senior wide receivers Braden Lenzy, Kevin Austin Jr. and Davis (all three have another year of eligibility remaining because of COVID-19), 2022 could bring sophomore starting roles for these two.
Jack Coan the man
For full disclosure, when Coan was struggling early this season, I was in favor of giving a starting shot to sophomore backup Drew Pyne. Not anymore.
Since leading a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter of a 32-29 win over Virginia Tech Oct. 30, the Irish graduate student quarterback has become a different player.
In Coan’s four games from Virginia Tech through Navy, he completed 73 percent of his passes and threw for four touchdown passes with just one interception.
Coan was brought into the program more as a game manager and a bridge player to 2022 than he was a stat-sheet stuffer in 2021, and his 13 touchdowns, four interceptions, leadership qualities and an ability to lead game-winning drives make him a perfect fit on a team with an improving rushing game and a stellar defense.
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