Friday Five: The 12-Team Playoff And Notre Dame’s National Title Path
Notre Dame’s access to the College Football Playoff indisputably increases if the proposed 12-team format is adopted.
What about the Irish’s chances of winning a title in the potential new format, though? Is there anything to the idea that better access comes with cratered hopes of claiming a championship?
The second question deserves some examination. It stems from two unideal circumstances of the 12-team format: Notre Dame’s inability to earn a first-round bye and its need to play four games to reach the national championship. More games mathematically increases the odds of a loss.
But there are more layers to both of those.
Let’s start with the former. Here are the No. 12 seeds who would have played a hypothetical No. 5 Notre Dame (its highest possible seed) in South Bend if this format were applied to the four-team playoff era: Coastal Carolina (2020), Memphis (2019), Penn State (2018), UCF (2017), Western Michigan (2016), Houston (2015) and Boise State (2014).
Not exactly strenuous games, especially if Notre Dame is seeded fifth but a top-four team in the CFP rankings.
Also, if Notre Dame is ranked in the top four but is the No. 5 seed, a conference champion from below them would be elevated to top-four status. That team would be top-four in designation but not by ranking.
Using the same retrofit idea, these would be the four bye teams. Their actual ranking and record are in parentheses if those do not match the seed.
• 2020: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Oklahoma (8-2, ranked sixth)
• 2019: No. 1 LSU, No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Oklahoma
• 2018: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Oklahoma (12-1, fourth), No. 4 Ohio State (12-1, sixth)
• 2017: No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Oklahoma, No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Ohio State (11-2, fifth)
• 2016: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Clemson, No. 3 Washington (12-1, fourth), No. 4 Penn State (11-2, fifth)
• 2015: No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Michigan State, No. 4 Oklahoma
• 2014: No. 1 Alabama, No. 2 Oregon, No. 3 Florida State, No. 4 Ohio State
In four of the seven years, the top four seeds would not have matched the top four in the CFP rankings. Even though a Notre Dame team ranked in the top four would have to play three top-four seeds in this format – the crux of the supposedly weakened championship chances – it wouldn’t face three top-four teams in the rankings.
Notre Dame would still have to beat the No. 1 team in the semifinals and likely the No. 2 or 3 in the finals to win the championship, but that’s already the case now. And that hasn’t been easy for the Irish to do in the current format.
2. More Playoff
It’s also worth comparing the independent path in the 12-team playoff to one if Notre Dame were to join the ACC.
Earning a bye is possible, but to get it, Notre Dame needs to win the ACC title game. Doing so would, in most cases, require beating Clemson at least once. If the Irish and Tigers were in opposite divisions, they would play for the league title. If they were in the same division, they would play every year in the regular season in what would essentially be a conference title elimination game.
A Notre Dame regular-season loss to Clemson if both are in the same division would take the Irish out of bye contention because they won’t be able to win a conference title. (Unless, of course, Clemson loses at least two other ACC games, but that’s unlikely in the Tigers’ and the league’s current states. Notre Dame would also need to remain perfect in the ACC otherwise).
A Notre Dame loss to Clemson in the conference title game means no bye and, if the Irish are still in the playoff field, a 17-game schedule to win the national championship. As an independent, Notre Dame would play a maximum of 16 games.
In all, not exactly easier.
3. Amorion Walker
A June stream of offers has shifted the narrative surrounding Ponchatoula (La.) High wide receiver Amorion Walker, who is the lowest-ranked player in the Irish’s 2022 class. Recent Alabama and LSU offers are a sign Notre Dame’s coaching staff was clearly onto something when it offered last fall and took his commitment in March.
I understand why his commitment didn’t generate much buzz given its context. He’s a low three-star recruit in Rivals’ rating system. He’s a boom-or-bust prospect. He was the first player in an important receiver class that must help offset the dearth of receivers in the current sophomore and junior classes (one total) and the potential for several senior departures. Notre Dame’s 2020 receiver play wasn’t particularly special.
The SEC offers don’t mean he’s any more of a sure thing than when he committed to Notre Dame, but they confirm the Irish weren’t alone among brand-name college teams that liked what they saw in Walker to think he’s more likely to boom than bust.
No matter when Walker committed, he was going to be an intriguing complementary piece if Notre Dame landed most of its top receiver targets or a main figure in a disappointing class.
I suspect the timing of his commitment and his status as the first receiver to hop in fueled concern about the latter happening. But right now, it seems Notre Dame is in good position with its top targets, namely top-160 players CJ Williams and Tobias Merriweather.
The day-to-day of recruiting can be a roller coaster of emotions and reactions. Situations like Walker’s remind that firm conclusions and takes are best saved until the zoomed-out, long-term view is available.
4. Name, Image, Likeness
The NIL era in college sports begins July 1, though with much less unity than expected weeks or months ago.
NCAA NIL legislation is not in place. Congress has not passed federal NIL laws. Instead, the likely outcome is “interim solutions that will fairly allow all student-athletes to take advantage of NIL opportunities regardless of the state in which they are enrolled,” as NCAA President Mark Emmert wrote in a Wednesday memo to his membership.
The stopgap measure would effectively eradicate the NCAA bylaws that prohibit athletes from earning money for use of their names, images and likenesses. The reported proposal on the table is to leave NIL policies and decisions up to individual schools in states without NIL laws. Schools in the six (or more) states that have NIL laws would adhere to that legislation.
The 11th-hour dive across the finish line, if passed, is enough to avoid an inequitable playing field where athletes at schools in states that have NIL laws could sign deals, but players in the 44 states without them could not.
What does this mean for Notre Dame? Indiana does not have any NIL legislation in place, so the school will have to draw up its own policies by July 1. Head coach Brian Kelly indicated in early June that process has started and won’t have to be entirely crammed into a short window between Wednesday and July 1.
“We’re prepared,” Kelly said. “We’ve put together what we believe the name, image and likeness will be for us at Notre Dame. We think it will be a very positive thing and enhance our ability to recruit.”
5. Dom Campbell
Notre Dame basketball hosts its first official visitor of the 2022 cycle on Monday. The Irish are bringing Philips Exeter Academy (N.H.) forward Dom Campbell to campus for an official visit. It will be his third one and follows June trips to Stanford and Oklahoma.
Campbell is currently unranked and therein unlikely to generate too much excitement among a fan base looking for signs of life in the program. In this likely large 2022 Notre Dame class, though, I think he’s a good fit. He’s a sturdy 6-8 and 235 pounds. He doesn’t get pushed off the block when he posts up. He can step out and make three-pointers. He seems to have some feel as a passer.
Rivals national analyst Jamie Shaw thinks those days as an unranked player are numbered.
“A big, strong player at 6-foot-9 and 240 pounds, Campbell can line up across the floor, whether it be on the low block with footwork and touch, the mid post with his ability to face and make a play or as a pick and pop or trail big shooting the 3-ball,” Shaw wrote last month.
“He has strong hands that once he gets ahold of the ball he is not letting go. Playing this Summer with Middlesex Magic (Mass.) program Campbell has burst on the scene and is someone who will, almost assuredly, be in the next Rivals150.”
Those are traits found in prior successful Mike Brey big men. I also suspect Campbell would not be the only newcomer frontcourt player on Notre Dame’s 2022-23 roster if he commits.
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