Friday Five: Final Notre Dame-Related Thoughts On 2021 NFL Draft
One takeaway from the end of the 2020 season was Notre Dame’s coaching staff got as much out of its roster as possible.
It didn’t have the on-paper, star-ranking talent of the other three College Football Playoff teams. It didn’t have a quarterback in the first-round discussion. It didn’t have high-round 2021 draft prospects at premium positions. It’s not stocked with three or four projected first-rounders for 2022.
And yet Notre Dame went 10-2, beat one of the CFP participants in the regular season and made the field of four.
Last week’s NFL Draft confirmed Notre Dame did get a lot of mileage out of its 2020 roster. It should, though, also have made clear Notre Dame didn’t reach the playoff in spite of its talent. I’m not sure how obvious that was on Jan. 2. I think it’s easy to see now. This roster wasn’t some Outback Bowl-level group that overachieved.
No, Notre Dame didn’t have six first-rounders and eight top-40 picks like the Alabama team that bulldozed everyone in its path. But nine draft picks are still nine draft picks, even if none of them came on Day 1. The roster’s ceiling was much lower than Alabama’s. It still had a pretty high floor.
Only Alabama and Ohio State (10 each) had more draft picks than Notre Dame this year. Georgia had nine. Florida and Michigan had eight. Clemson and playoff regular Oklahoma had five. Notre Dame had five top-100 picks, the same number as Ohio State and one more than Clemson.
I’m not here to dispute the lack of a talent gap or say there’s nothing more Notre Dame can do to improve its postseason results. The positions of those early-round picks matter. The other three playoff teams had first-rounders at quarterback. Ian Book was a fourth-rounder. Alabama had two first-round receivers, and Clemson a third-rounder. Notre Dame had one seventh-round receiver (Ben Skowronek).
On defense, Georgia had two cornerbacks picked in the top 35, and Alabama’s best corner went No. 9 overall. Notre Dame hasn’t had a corner go before day three since KeiVarae Russell in 2016. Notre Dame’s two 2020 starting defensive ends were fifth-round picks. The other three playoff teams had mostly underclass edge rushers, but some of them are viewed as early-round prospects for next year’s draft.
Notre Dame didn’t quite have the same amount of juice at those premium positions as its Playoff counterparts or a few other top-10 teams. But to have nine picks — many of whom went earlier than expected — shows there was still plenty in the tank. (Not to mention, of course, tight end Michael Mayer and safety Kyle Hamilton were perhaps Notre Dame’s two most talented players but weren’t draft-eligible).
2. High Floor Seeking Higher Ceiling
Let’s rewind a bit.
Notre Dame’s 2018 CFP team had one first-round pick in the three drafts that followed. Only seven of its starters were drafted in the first three rounds.
For comparison, here’s a look at the other three CFP teams that year. Clemson, the 2018 national champion, had seven first-round picks in the 2019-21 drafts. Alabama had 13. Oklahoma had four. For other measure, 2018 CFP No. 5 Georgia had four and No. 6 Ohio State had six.
Again, that’s not to say Notre Dame didn’t belong in the 2018 College Football Playoff. It produced 21 total draft picks from 2019-21. That’s three more than Clemson and four more than Oklahoma. Meanwhile, Alabama and Ohio State each had 29 in that span.
Notre Dame going 12-1 and reaching the playoff that year is a real testament to the coaching staff’s ability to evaluate and develop. None of its 2015-18 recruiting classes finished in Rivals’ top 10. To get 20 (and counting) draft picks out of them is impressive work.
The first-round differences, though, happen because those other teams develop too – and are doing so with a higher initial level of talent. The way to close that oft-discussed gap is to push closer to them in recruiting. That's not a revelation. But it is new to hear a coaching staff member openly discuss it like a challenge he's ready to take on.
“I think for us to continue to elevate and be National Champions and be able to close that gap with Alabama, we’ve got to continue to acquire some of the best football players in the country,” defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman said. “Those guys might not always be dying to come to Notre Dame, but if we understand they're the right fit and we do our research, they can be successful here at Notre Dame. Our job is to convince them.”
3. The 2016 Class
OK, it’s not all about signing top classes.
Notre Dame’s 2016 class finished 13th in Rivals’ rankings and produced nine NFL draft picks. Future playoff teams signed five of the 12 classes ranked above the Irish’s, but so did six teams that had at least one losing season in the five following years (there is overlap between those two). The only classes to surpass nine draft picks were No. 4 Michigan’s and No. 1 Alabama’s, which each yielded 10.
Notre Dame’s nine draft picks from that year include 2016’s highest-ranked signee (former five-star Daelin Hayes) and its lowest, excluding a long snapper (5.5-grade three-star Ade Ogundeji). After Hayes, the next two highest-rated players were offensive lineman Tommy Kraemer and receiver Javon McKinley. Neither was drafted, but each became a starter. Five of the top seven players in the class were drafted.
Of the nine draft picks, only Ian Book and Ogundeji were three-stars. The class produced two second-round picks, one third-rounder, three fourth-rounders and three fifths.
4. The First Round By Stars
On the whole, highly ranked classes matter. On an individual level, five-stars are more likely to make the NFL or be drafted than three-stars. Same time, a ranking is hardly a guarantee (see Jordan Johnson).
A look at the first round by Rivals ranking (find each player’s ranking here):
• Five-star: 8
• Four-star: 12 (three top-100)
• Three-star: 9
• Two-star or unranked: 3
5. About Development …
One last thing on player development.
We have a tendency to see players like former three-star recruits Ogundeji and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah as the best examples of it. Theoretically, they made the most strides because they were ranked lower.
Maybe so, but that also makes it easier to lose sight of the development of blue-chip players. They need it too. Five- and four-stars aren’t ready-made pros.
Take a look at Notre Dame’s 2016 defensive end class. All four players in it were drafted. Ogundeji fits all the “maximized his talent” tropes because he was once headed for the Mid-American Conference.
But isn’t Hayes an impressive development example too? He was a five-star, but played in only eight high school games. There’s an inherent lack of feel and technical mastery attached to such a lack of game experience.
The same question applies to Julian Okwara, a four-star recruit who weighed under 220 pounds as a high school senior. Notre Dame had to transform him physically while not jeopardizing his speed and burst off the edge.
Blue-chip recruits still need coaching and strong developmental infrastructure to become impact college players and high-round picks, even if they’re often starting ahead of everyone else.
Take those 12 classes ranked ahead of Notre Dame’s 2016 haul, for example.
That year, Florida State signed the No. 2 class and got one draft pick out of it. There will be individual player ranking misses and five-star washouts, but when a class with that many high-end recruits yields such little impact, it’s a poor reflection on the team and coaching staff.
Notre Dame, meanwhile, has done well enough hitting on its highest-ranked recruits and supplementing them with a lot of impact from lower-level ones. That’s how to get classes like 2016.
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