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Examining Notre Dame postseason scenarios and the Peach Bowl likelihood

Let’s make one thing clear first. Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff hopes have a pulse.

It’s a faint pulse, but it’s there. In fact, it’s a bit more appreciable than it was after the initial CFP rankings release.

Since then, Wake Forest fell to North Carolina Saturday and therein likely knocked the ACC out of the playoff hunt. Michigan State’s loss to Purdue ended the Spartans’ undefeated season and elevated the Boilermakers into the rankings, which gave Notre Dame a second top-20 win alongside Wisconsin.

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As a result, Notre Dame (8-1) moved up a spot to No. 9 in Tuesday’s refreshed rankings, leaping Wake Forest. It’s a small step up the ladder, but a step nonetheless.

For Notre Dame to move off the periphery and into the thick of the playoff discussion, though, it’ll need more chaos. A lot more. It doesn’t help that the Irish’s final three games are against unranked opponents. None are likely to be ranked a month from now. Two could finish with at least eight losses. As it stands, with the Irish still a healthy distance from the top four, they’re on a New Year’s Six course.

Specifically, one headed to the Dec. 30 Peach Bowl in Atlanta — a game the Fighting Irish have never played in before. If the season ended today, that would be their destination. They’ll officially head there if two things that are on track to occur materialize on selection day Dec. 5:

• Notre Dame wins out but is ranked outside the CFP top four.

• Cincinnati does not make the playoff but secures the Group of Five New Year’s Six autobid.

The non-playoff New Year’s Six games without conference tie-ins (Peach, Fiesta, Cotton) take the Group of Five qualifier on a three-year rotation. Two years ago, the Cotton Bowl took Memphis. Last year, Cincinnati played in the Peach Bowl. This season, the Fiesta bowl will get the Group of Five autobid winner if Cincinnati doesn’t reach the playoff.

The No. 5 Bearcats (9-0) will head there if they retain pole position among Group of Five teams but are left out of the top four. If so, that has a direct impact on Notre Dame.

The New Year’s Six like to avoid rematches. Notre Dame and Cincinnati, of course, already played this season — a 24-13 Bearcats win Oct. 2 in South Bend.

Cross out the Fiesta vs. Cincinnati as a bowl destination for the Irish. Same with the Rose Bowl, which maintains its Big Ten vs. Pac-12 ties in years where it doesn’t host a playoff semifinal.

That leaves the Peach.

Another consideration when setting New Year’s Six matchups is geography. The Peach Bowl, then, is the likely destination for the ACC champion, which gets a New Year’s Six autobid.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish football junior running back Kyren Williams
Notre Dame and Cincinnati would not likely meet in a New Year’s Six bowl rematch. (Darron Cummings/AP)

Wake Forest, the ACC’s highest-ranked team, is closer to Atlanta than suburban Phoenix. The same goes for every other ACC school.

What’s that got to do with anything? If Cincinnati heads to the Fiesta and Notre Dame misses the playoff, it’s likely the Irish would play the ACC winner — unless it’s 2021 opponents North Carolina or Virginia. Both are still alive for the Coastal Division title. In this deep-cut hypothetical reliant on Coastal craziness, the Tar Heels or Cavaliers would likely head West and Notre Dame would play a Big Ten or SEC at-large team in Atlanta.

Unless, of course, the boost Notre Dame would get from the Tar Heels’ or Cavaliers’ potential top-25 ranking in that wonky scenario is enough to send them to the CFP.

That’s the kind of chaos Notre Dame might need to get there.

“Like anything else, if Notre Dame just keeps winning, we’ll have to see what happens with Oklahoma, Michigan State, Michigan that are above them,” CFP committee chairman Gary Barta said Tuesday of the Irish's playoff standing.

Even if the Irish take a loss, a New Year’s Six bid isn’t out of the question. But it would become a reach. If 10-2 Notre Dame is left out, it would head to one of the ACC’s three major non-New Year’s Six bowls. Those are the Gator Bowl (Jacksonville, Fla.), the Cheez-It Bowl (Orlando, Fla.) and the Holiday Bowl (San Diego).

Assuming anything in college football is as wise an idea as boarding a flight to Las Vegas thinking you’ll return with a profit. This sport has unmatched capability of upheaval. And even though Cincinnati is a hot topic because it has been left out of the top four so far, it’s sitting at No. 5 and within striking distance of a playoff spot.

Anything can happen in the final four weeks. But at the moment, the Irish’s postseason future looks Peachy.

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