One predictive metric, SP+, is lower on Notre Dame’s 2021 outlook than any other human poll or mathematical equation.
Another offers one of the more bullish projections for the Irish.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) predicts Notre Dame will be the eighth-best team in college football this season. It’s a measure of expected point difference against an average opponent on a neutral field and calculated with 20,000 simulations of the remaining season.
Notre Dame’s 16.1 mark is No. 8. The Irish trail Texas (16.4), Texas A&M (18.5), Georgia (19.2), Ohio State (22.5), Oklahoma (24.1), Clemson (26.6) and Alabama (28.6). Iowa State (15.5) and Miami (15.0) complete the top 10.
FPI’s projected win total for Notre Dame is 9.1. It puts Notre Dame’s chances of winning out at 3.4 percent, its odds of reaching six wins at 99.2 percent and its playoff odds at 22.9 percent. The Irish have a 7.2 percent chance of reaching the national title game and a 2.3 percent chance of winning it, per FPI.
Though FPI projects Notre Dame to lose 2.9 games, it has the Irish as a favorite in each one. Here’s a look at the 12 opponents’ FPI rankings and Notre Dame’s chances of winning each game.
Sept. 5 at Florida State
• FPI: 5.1 (44th)
• Projected record: 5.9-6.1
• Chance to win: 71.9 percent
• 2020 record: 3-6, 2-6 ACC
Sept. 11 vs. Toledo
• FPI: 0.3 (66th)
• Projected record: 8.9-3.5
• Chance to win: 90.2 percent
• 2020 record: 4-2, 4-2 Mid-American
Sept. 18 vs. Purdue
• FPI: 3.8 (49th)
• Projected record: 5.8-6.3
• Chance to win: 85.9 percent
• 2020 record: 2-4, 2-4 Big Ten
Sept. 25 vs. Wisconsin at Soldier Field
• FPI: 11.1 (17th)
• Projected record: 8.4-4.0
• Chance to win: 61.4 percent
• 2020 record: 4-3, 3-3 Big Ten
Oct. 2 vs. Cincinnati
• FPI: 9.3 (22nd)
• Projected record: 9.5-3.2
• Chance to win: 73.2 percent
• 2020 record: 9-1, 7-0 American
Oct. 9 at Virginia Tech
• FPI: 8.3 (26th)
• Projected record: 7.4-4.7
• Chance to win: 61 percent
• 2020 record: 5-6, 5-5 ACC
Oct. 23 vs. USC
• FPI: 9.7 (21st)
• Projected record: 8.6-3.9
• Chance to win: 78.7 percent
• 2020 record: 5-1, 5-1 Pac-12
Oct. 30 vs. North Carolina
• FPI: 12.7 (14th)
• Projected record: 8.6-3.7
• Chance to win: 65.3 percent
• 2020 record: 8-4, 7-3 ACC
Nov. 6 vs. Navy
• FPI: -12.3 (116th)
• Projected record: 2.7-9.3
• Chance to win: 96.7 percent
• 2020 record: 3-7, 3-4 American
Nov. 13 at Virginia
• FPI: 6.2 (37th)
• Projected record: 6.5-5.6
• Chance to win: 66.6 percent
• 2020 record: 5-5, 4-5 ACC
Nov. 20 vs. Georgia Tech
• FPI: 2.3 (57th)
• Projected record: 4.8-7.2
• Chance to win: 88.6 percent
• 2020 record: 3-7, 3-6 ACC
Nov. 27 at Stanford
• FPI: 3.7 (52nd)
• Projected record: 6.0-6.1
• Chance to win: 72.5 percent
• 2020 record: 4-2, 4-2 Pac-12
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