Playing the game of alternative universes in which Sam Hartman never opts to transfer to Notre Dame last January — or bails in late April after test-driving the new offense and its coordinator for 15 spring practices — only confirms the calculus that raised expectations for the Irish football team last offseason.
Even if the team’s 9-3 bottom line coaxes and endless stream of yeah-buts and even more hypotheticals. And fair enough.
But here are the numbers anyway. Hartman’s season pass-efficiency rating of 159.5 is not only his career best to date — admittedly a 10th of a rating point over his final season at Wake Forest — it’s the 17th-best nationally and the third-best for a single season in Notre Dame history.
And, with the Irish done for the regular season and only conference championships and Army-Navy left to play on a national schedule, it’s tops among the quarterbacks who were available in last offseason’s transfer portal cycle.
The three QBs who have transferred out and were still active in 2023? Tyler Buchner (Alabama) and Phil Jurkovec (Pitt) are listed as third-stringers. Drew Pyne (Arizona State) would share the same status if healthy, but he’s not.
In 19 pass attempts, Buchner’s pass-efficiency rating is 69.1 with Alabama’s season still in progress. Pyne finished at 101.1 in 49 attempts and Jurkovec at 124.6 in 112.
Some recruiting swings and missed who ended up elsewhere? Penn State sophomore Drew Allar ranks 57th (138.3), and UCLA freshman Dante Moore is 81st (125.6).
Among names suggested for Notre Dame, not all of whom were strongly considered or considered at all: Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei 45th (145.0), Kentucky’s Devin Leary 66th (132.3), NC State’s Brennan Armstrong 69th (131.0) and Purdue’s Hudson Card 88th (122.0).
And a player of note teams wish had plopped into the portal — North Carolina’s Drake Maye — is 37th (140.0).
The 24-year-old, four-time captain’s pass-efficiency numbers and rankings are well within the range of teams that compete and win national championships. Why Hartman’s numbers didn’t translate to a higher win rate is something not for second-year head coach Marcus Freeman not to defend, but to study. And knowing his “question everything” mantra and his penchant for living it, he’ll do just that.
Not to assign blame, but to craft solutions.
How much of Hartman’s dip statistically in Notre Dame’s three losses was tied to an inexperienced offensive coordinator?
How much was tied to Hartman having to learn a completely new offensive system?
How much was tied to injuries and inexperience at wide receiver?
Would Notre Dame be better off with a starting QB with more dual-threat capabilities? The Irish have those in the pipeline and those who trend more toward Hartman’s strengths.
How much of a payoff was Hartman’s leadership and locker room respect?
These are the questions that matter when the transfer portal opens next Monday. These are the questions that will help the Irish program, as Freeman likes to say, chase its full potential. These are some of the questions when addressed should help Freeman evolve as a head coach.
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Assessing a significant statistical milestone
The flip side of finding a quarterback who will coax Notre Dame to its next playoff berth and have the ability to win games there is challenging and mitigating the elite quarterbacks it’s likely to have to face.
Which is why Notre Dame’s ascendance to the No. 1 spot nationally in pass-efficiency defense on Sunday is more than just fun water-cooler talk.
In the 2000s, there have been only two outlier national champions that had a national PED ranking of lower than 18th — the 2010 Cam Newton-led Auburn team (76th) and 2002 Ohio State a couple of years before ND’s Freeman arrived to suit up for the Buckeyes.
And only five of the 23 national titlists finished their respective seasons outside of the top 10 in that national statistical category. The Irish were 42nd last season.
USC junior Caleb Williams was No. 1 individually when he came into Notre Dame Stadium on Oct. 14 and left with a 100.0 rating in a 48-20 USC loss. That’s 70 points lower than his season average (which is seventh nationally) and better than 33 points lower than the next-best defensive showing against him, from Utah.
Squibs
• Notre Dame runner back Audric Estimé's revenge tour landed him on Sunday 10th nationally in rushing yards per game (111.8), 12th in yards per carry (6.39) and third in rushing TDs (18, a school record). That after 238 yards, 25 carries and four TDs — all career highs Saturday at Stanford.
Should he opt in for Notre Dame’s bowl game, Estimé would need 97 yards to break Vagas Ferguson’s 44-year-old single-season rushing record of 1,437 yards. Ferguson accomplished that in 11 games, but carried the ball 301 times that season. Estimé has 210 attempts this season, a reflection of how much running back philosophy has changed over time.
• Meanwhile, Estimé was Pro Football Focus’ highest-rated Notre Dame player on either side of the ball in the 56-23 Irish tromping of the Cardinal (94.1). Former walk-on and current freshman Jordan Faison was No. 2 (87.8).
With 14 receptions in just six games, he has more than all but five Notre Dame freshman wide receivers have amassed since 2010, and two of those ahead of him are current fellow freshmen Jaden Greathouse (16) and Rico Flores Jr. (27).
• Flores’ 27th reception Saturday at Stanford means just Michael Floyd (48), Duval Kamara (32) and former Heisman Trophy winner Tim Brown (28) have garnered more catches as an ND freshman wide receiver since the NCAA permanently restored freshman eligibility in 1972.
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