Why Notre Dame vs. Virginia expectations depend on Brennan Armstrong injury
What happens Nov. 13 in Charlottesville is incredibly dependent on the impending announcement of Virginia junior quarterback Brennan Armstrong’s injury status. Virginia head coach Bronco Mendenhall said the news could come at the 11th hour, just before kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday.
With Armstrong, the Cavaliers have a chance to score a boatload of points on an up-and-down Notre Dame defense and potentially pull off an upset. Without him, the Cavaliers might not have much of a chance to score more than a couple times and will almost assuredly need something miraculous to happen to win.
Armstrong is that much of a difference maker.
Through nine weeks, only one FBS quarterback — Western Kentucky’s Bailey Zappe — had thrown for more yards per game than Armstrong. Zappe ranked No. 1 with 425.9 while Armstrong was No. 2 at 395.2.
Armstrong threw for 337 yards and four touchdowns in Virginia’s most recent game against BYU before battling for a four-yard rushing gain on fourth-and-four early in the fourth quarter. Armstrong took a shot to the ribs on the play. He tried to throw a crossing route over the middle on the next snap, but he wasn’t able to put anything behind a flat-footed toss that was intercepted.
Armstrong limped to the sideline pointing at his ribs while seemingly saying, "It’s broken. It’s broken” over and over again. If something is indeed broken, then perhaps so too are Virginia’s chances of upsetting the Fighting Irish. The Cavaliers won’t be the same team without the signal-caller who has thrown for 3,557 yards and 27 touchdowns with 271 rushing yards and seven more scores.
Mendenhall said the Cavaliers’ bye week was spent rehabbing Armstrong’s injury and preparing a backup quarterback in the event the star signal-caller won’t be able to give it a go.
Virginia has played one game without Armstrong in the last two seasons. The Cavaliers lost that game to NC State (40-23). Mendenhall used a quarterback by committee with Lindell Stone, Keytaon Thompson and Ira Armstead all getting reps at the position.
Armstead, a redshirt freshman, is listed as the No. 2 quarterback on Virginia’s official depth chart. He has only attempted two passes this season, though. Freshman Jay Woolfolk has attempted six, and he might be the player Mendenhall turns to if he has to go in a direction other than Armstrong. Thompson, who has been turned into a wide receiver/running back hybrid, essentially confirmed as much after the 66-49 loss to BYU.
“I think we have a great quarterback — Jay Woolfolk — and we have a next-man-up mentality,” Thompson said. “Of course Brennan is a great quarterback. But I believe in our coaches and I believe in our players to find a way to fill that void.”
‘Keep Fighting, Keep Trying’
Armstrong’s potential absence wouldn’t only affect Virginia in the passing game. A running game that already doesn’t fare too well with Armstrong on the field could get even worse without him.
For starters, Armstrong is the team’s second-leading rusher. The only player with more yards on the ground than Armstrong is senior running back Wayne Taulapapa who has 290 on 55 carries (5.3 yards per rush). Thompson has 216 on 31 rushes (6.8 yards per attempt), and senior Devin Darrington has 213 on 24 attempts (8.9 yards per try).
Those advantageous averages have come in large part because of opposing defenses’ respect for what Armstrong can do in the passing game. Running lanes get much narrower and perhaps closed entirely when the passing game isn’t much of a threat.
So if called upon, could Woolfolk pick up where Armstrong left off? Probably not to the full extent, no. The 5-11, 200-pounder didn’t play in his senior season of high school because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
How about making your first collegiate start and first start overall since 2019 against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish? Football might not even be his No. 1 sport either. He was the Virginia Gatorade Player of the Year in baseball as a sophomore. He’s got a 93-mile-per-hour fastball and was ranked as the nation’s No. 35 prospect by Baseball America for the class of 2021.
All that said, it’d be a great story if the two-sport star came off the bench and put Notre Dame on the ropes. But it sure would be a lot to ask. All Mendenhall wants from his team is the same sort of fight the Cavaliers displayed in coming back from a 21-0 deficit to take a 42-38 halftime lead over BYU Oct. 30.
No, Virginia didn’t win. But it displayed a lot of mettle. And whether or not Armstrong is on the field, Mendenhall knows it will need that same sort of fight to compete with a ranked Notre Dame team.
“My team, they love to play football. And they love each other,” Mendenhall said. “They’re not perfect. And I’m not perfect. But they hang together. And they keep fighting, and they keep trying. And they keep fighting, and they keep trying.
“With all of our flaws collectively, they keep going. I’m proud of them for that.”
Defense ‘Has To Get Better’
It won’t matter how hard Virginia fights and tries if its defense doesn’t play better.
Allowing 66 points isn’t going to win a team many football games. The Cavaliers also allowed 59 points in a loss to North Carolina Sept. 18 and 37 points in a loss to Wake Forest Sept. 25.
The Virginia defense has been battered in a few wins, too. Miami scored 28 points, Louisville scored 33 and Georgia Tech scored 40. Those teams had a combined record of 12-15 through Week 10. The Cavaliers are prone to allowing large chunks of points in any given game. That’s not good news for the home team in welcoming a Notre Dame squad that has started clicking offensively in the second half of the season.
“Our defense has to get more stops, has to play better from beginning to end,” Mendenhall said. “That has to happen.”
Virginia ranked No. 122 nationally in total defense through Week 10. Only three Power Five teams — Duke, Missouri and Kansas — had allowed more than Virginia’s mark of 466.2 yards per game.
The Cavaliers have a few solid individual defensive players. Junior linebacker Nick Jackson has 86 tackles. Fellow junior linebacker Noah Taylor has 56 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss. Senior safety Joey Blount has 66 tackles, two interceptions and three passes defended. Five other Cavaliers, one of them being Taylor, have four or more passes defended.
Virginia is capable of making a defensive play here and there. But collectively, the unit has not put it all together this season. The Cavaliers have yet to reach double figures in turnovers forced, and they rank tied for 99th nationally in turnover margin at minus-four.
From the uncertain quarterback situation to a defense that has only shined against William & Mary and Duke, Virginia doesn’t have a lot going for it heading into a tough matchup against a Notre Dame team with postseason aspirations to play for.
But that doesn’t mean the Cavaliers are going to lay down and surrender. Virginia can still punch a ticket to the ACC championship game. Gaining a bit of momentum against Notre Dame would be a favorable objective for Mendenhall and the Cavaliers as they go into games against Pitt and Virginia Tech to finish the regular season.
“We control our destiny, and playing well and winning is really what’s at stake,” Mendenhall said.
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