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Why Notre Dame's Rushing Numbers At Pitt Are A Fine Blueprint Vs. Clemson

Brian Kelly was determined to shoot down any fear.

Notre Dame’s run game emphasis isn’t fool’s gold that will disappear when it plays a Clemson defense that’s tougher than any of the previous six on the schedule, he said. Saturday won’t be a repeat of the game plan from last year’s loss at Georgia, when the Irish were disinterested in a ground game because they assumed it wouldn’t work.

That night, Notre Dame ran the ball 14 times for 46 yards, but it’s really 12 carries for 29 yards when removing two scrambles that were designed pass plays. Like Michael Jordan, Kelly can’t accept not trying.

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Notre Dame's surface rushing numbers against Pitt weren't great, but dig deeper, and they'd be a success against Clemson.
Notre Dame's surface rushing numbers against Pitt weren't great, but dig deeper, and they'd be a success against Clemson. (ACC)

“We want to be who we are,” Kelly said Thursday. “I think we’ve defined that through the first six weeks. We want to play a physical brand of football. That’s who we are.

“At the end of the day, this is about a four-quarter, physical presence with our offense. That’s how we’ve played football this year. You don’t start changing who you are at this time.”

It’s not reasonable to think Notre Dame can put 353 sack-adjusted rush yards on Clemson like it did against Florida State. The 237-yard (and 5.6 per carry) outing last week against Georgia Tech feels like a dream too. The Tigers are eighth in yards per carry allowed, fifth in tackles for loss per game and are Pro Football Focus’ second-highest graded run defense unit.

So what is a realistic performance for a dominant run team against a stout run-stopping crew? More importantly, what’s a successful one? Asked for his thoughts on the matter Thursday, Kelly chose not to put a number on it.

“Running the ball is about run efficiency,” Kelly said.

The best statistical answer and expectation may be from just a couple weeks ago, when Notre Dame hammered Pitt 45-3 on Oct. 24. Yes, a game in which Notre Dame ran for 120 yards on 46 carries, excluding sacks (2.5 per rush), was actually a success and could be against Clemson. In this case, the surface numbers lie.

Saturday, Notre Dame may also find itself with unremarkable standard rushing stats but a performance that should be considered effective because it was efficient. That’s best measured using success rate and short-yardage effectiveness.

To address the first: against a Pitt defense that ranks second in rush yards per game and first in tackles for loss per game, Notre Dame converted all five third- and fourth-and-shorts (3 or fewer yards) when it ran the ball. That’s excluding a sack that shows up as a run. All told, Notre Dame has converted on 24 of 30 third- or fourth-and-short designed run plays.

Of Notre Dame’s six failures, four were garbage-time goal line carries while running out the clock. One was a 5-yard loss early in the Sept. 19 game against South Florida. And one was a 1-yard gain on third-and-2 Sept. 12 against Duke, which was a call with a fourth-down attempt in mind. That fourth-down play call was a Williams’ 26-yard touchdown run.

Notre Dame wouldn’t mind another game with zero 10-plus yards from its running backs if it can convert every short-yardage run play. That’s containment but not dictation.

Pitt, with its stiff run defense and top-25 ranking in short-yardage conversion rate, could only do the former.If that’s the case with Clemson’s defense on Saturday, it boosts Notre Dame’s ability to chew clock like it has in recent weeks. Short-yardage success will be hard-earned, because Clemson leads the country with a 45.8 percent first-down rate on short-yardage runs.

“I have confidence we will not be stopped on third-and-1,” running back Kyren Williams said. “I tell the offensive line that every single play.”

Onto another measure. Notre Dame’s rushing success rate against Pitt – gaining 50 percent of the yardage needed on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third and fourth – was 36 percent.

In a vacuum, that’s not a great number. Against a sturdy front that included eight- and nine-man boxes and allowed 2.5 yards per carry, though, it’s quite good. Pitt’s opponent rushing success rate is 29 percent, which leads the ACC. The Panthers sell out to stop the run.

“Good coaching and execution is based upon what a defense is doing,” Kelly said. “To say, ‘Hey we ran the ball effectively against a nine-man front,’ what does that mean? It means you ran the ball for 7 minutes, 52 seconds to end the game when they knew you were going to run it.”

As Kelly alluded, Notre Dame had three drives of at least 4:52 in the win over Pitt. They were methodical and slower-paced, but featured enough forward movement to stay on schedule.

“We knew we’d have to grind yards out, 3 or 4 yards, that’s the type of day it was going to be,” Notre Dame center Jarrett Patterson said. “We really wore them down. That’s the biggest thing we took away from that game, that we have two or three tight ends out there, Tommy Tremble at fullback and we’ll run it right at you.

“Even though the rushing numbers at the end of the day weren’t our best, I felt we really established enough of a ground game and really opened up in the back end for Ian and the receivers.”

For the season, Clemson’s opponents have a rushing success rate of 31 percent. Chunk gains will be rare if not limited entirely. No yards will be easily gained.

Just like the matchup with Pitt, all Notre Dame’s run game needs to do is avoid being controlled. Do that, and Clemson will respect the threat of a run call for the entire game and therein create some downfield one-on-ones. Don’t, and Notre Dame might have to turn elsewhere to find a primary source of yards. Relying on its less proven passing offense against a Clemson secondary that coach Dabo Swinney has called one of his best is not where Notre Dame wants to end up.

“The most important thing here is this will be a battle of wills,” Kelly said, referring to the Irish offensive line. “It has really been talking about, ‘We’re not going away from being physical and running the football.’ This is going to fall a lot on their shoulders. They’re excited about this opportunity they get to control a lot as to what’s going on with our success on offense.”

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