CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Drew White barrel-rolled twice after a missed tackle, ending on all fours and frozen in time, head hung. He knew.
Notre Dame’s senior middle linebacker knew Clemson running back Travis Etienne had nothing but Kentucky bluegrass left on the path to the end zone. His tackle attempt came in the last line of defense. A critical fourth-and-one play turned into a 44-yard touchdown run, a 24-3 Clemson lead with 21 ticks until halftime and a swift kick in the gut.
White knew Notre Dame was heading to unexplored waters. Knew it’d take a comeback not mounted on Clemson in a while to grab a win. Maybe, just maybe for a fleeting second, he knew of the idea reverberating through Notre Dame fan circles as teammates mobbed Etienne.
The fever dream scenario was unfolding.
All the Irish had to do was avoid a boat-racing. Stay upright. Etienne’s dash, though, sent them to the ground for the rest of the night. This ACC Championship rematch between Notre Dame and Clemson was nothing like the all-timer they played six weeks prior. Notre Dame retreated from Charlotte, N.C., with a 34-10 loss played amid an amplifying soundtrack of teeth-grinding and clenched fists.
The Irish entered the day 10-0 and No. 2 in the College Football Playoff committee’s top 25, snuggly in the top four. They’ll find out Sunday around noon if they stay there. Their credentials remain strong. Their one loss is to a team they beat. They have a convincing win over another top-15 opponent, North Carolina. They played 11 games.
“I don’t know that you need to look any further than that,” head coach Brian Kelly said.
But Notre Dame gave the committee an excuse to, even if it’s one that doesn’t hold up against the supposed directive to evaluate the entire body of work and avoid recency bias.
Notre Dame didn’t claim a league title in its lone season in the ACC.
The No. 2 Fighting Irish (10-1, 9-0 ACC) lost to Clemson (10-1, 8-1 ACC) 34-10 in the ACC Championship Game Saturday night. It was their first defeat since a 45-14 loss at Michigan on Oct. 26, 2019.
Here are some thoughts and numbers from the game.
• The College Football Playoff selection committee is supposed to judge entire bodies of work. In that sense, this is just one of 11 games and Notre Dame should have no worries about being in the top four. But you still want to leave a good last impression, because the committee has bit on those before. This was decidedly not a favorable last showing. The Irish now have to sweat a little bit after giving committee an excuse to leave them out, even if it would be a sketchy one to use.
• Notre Dame averaged 7.1 yards per play in the first quarter, yet ended it with just three points. That only happens with execution mistakes. There were plenty. A fourth-down drop and missed throw. A doinked field goal. A protection breakdown. Those mattered, but didn’t cost Notre Dame the game. Not on a day where fifth-year senior quarterback Ian Book was sacked six times, the run game averaged 3.5 yards per non-sack carry and the defense allowed 8.2 yards per play. The Irish offense averaged just 3.49 yards per play in the final three quarters.
• Quite a game of revenge for a Clemson offensive line that was beaten and bruised when these teams first met. It looked like a weakness that might keep the Tigers from playing for a national title or out of the CFP altogether. Instead, the front five helped pave the way for 9.0 yards per non-sack rush.
• Whoever would steadily move the ball on Notre Dame’s defense was going to do it by avoiding havoc plays (sacks, tackles for loss, forced fumbles, passes broken up and interceptions). The Irish entered with a 22.7 percent havoc rate this season and topped 20 percent in every regular-season game. They had 10 havoc plays on Clemson’s 66 snaps, a 15.1 percent rate.
• Clemson’s offense lived in third-and-long when it played Notre Dame in November. The Irish learned Saturday that’s not a fun existence. They had average distance of 8.9 yards to gain on third down. Notre Dame converted its first two third-down chances, both with at least five yards to gain. They were 1 of 10 after that.
For Notre Dame, the margin of defeat erases what seemed like a certainty before the weekend — that the Irish were in the playoff win or lose — and complicates the debate over the final spot in the national semifinals.
"There’s no doubt that this football team is one of the four best in the country," Kelly said. "And we’ll leave the rest up to the committee."
Texas A&M has an argument. The Aggies are 8-1 after beating Tennessee 34-13, with a resume-building win against Florida and just one loss, to Alabama. Oklahoma is in the mix after beating Iowa State to win the Big 12, the Sooners' six consecutive conference championship. And Cincinnati may be in the mix with a win against Tulsa in the American championship game, though the playoff selection committee would frown on including a program from the Group of Five.
Losing by 24 points raises questions about what to make of the overtime win. That came without Lawrence and Skalski, the Tigers' leaders on both sides of the ball. It came at home, even if home-field advantage is weighed differently during a season with limited attendance. Saturday's worst-case scenario came to pass: Notre Dame lost by a lopsided margin on a neutral field with Clemson at full strength.
The Irish still have a strong case. In the strange arithmetic created by the playoff, that win against Clemson now looks stronger. There's also a convincing victory against North Carolina, which would land an automatic New Year's Six bowl bid should the Irish and Tigers reach the semifinals. In all, Notre Dame has nine wins against Power Five competition, four currently with winning records.
"Absolutely Notre Dame deserves to be in," Swinney said. "They stepped in the ring with Clemson twice. Lost one, won one. There’s no doubt in my mind that Notre Dame deserves to be in."
“Offensively, we know what Clemson does in their front seven, they bring heat. The offensive line let us down today and they could not track the movement of the Clemson front seven. From day one, Notre Dame has leaned on and relied on its offensive line to be the strength of this team and the backbone of this team and they have been that but today they were discombobulated from the movement and that carries into pass protection. As far as the game plan, I thought we would see Tommy Tremble show up and he had three catches and I thought we would see some middle screens but we only ran one I believe. If you are blitzing, football 101 is throwing a screen to slow that down. Today, it just never stopped. Once we started bleeding, it just got worse and worse. I feel like if we rewatch the game, that 4th and 3 drop was the beginning of the end.
The Irish started off well with a field goal and that interception of Lawrence. But things quickly went south from there. Notre Dame got near the end zone on its second drive of the game but Clemson held the Irish to a field goal attempt. And while Jonathan Doerer hit a 51-yard kick to start the game, his 24-yard field goal attempt hit the right upright.
After Clemson followed up the missed field goal with a TD, Notre Dame got into Tigers’ territory again. And again the Irish came away with no points. The Irish eschewed another Doerer field goal attempt on fourth down and appeared to have the conversion after Ian Book rolled to his right and found a wide open Avery Davis. But Davis kept running to the sideline and Book’s pass was just behind him. It fell incomplete.
Clemson scored another TD six plays later.
Will Notre Dame make the playoff?
OK, it’s time to get to the biggest question from the game. Will Notre Dame be in the playoff on Sunday?
The Irish seemed like a safe bet to make the playoff barring a blowout loss. And, well, that blowout loss happened. Is it enough for the committee to push No. 5 Texas A&M ahead of Notre Dame?
Maybe. But Notre Dame has the benefit of beating both Clemson and No. 15 North Carolina in 2020. Texas A&M’s only win over a team currently ranked came against No. 7 Florida. And while the Aggies have liked to point out that they’ve played three more games than Ohio State, Notre Dame has played two more games — and has two more wins — than Texas A&M.
Clemson, meanwhile, seems like a sure bet to be the No. 2 team in the rankings behind Alabama assuming the Crimson Tide win the SEC championship game on Saturday night. That No. 2 spot could seemingly set up a playoff semifinal rematch with Big Ten champion Ohio State as the No. 4 Buckeyes beat No. 14 Northwestern, 22-10, on Saturday for a fourth consecutive Big Ten title.
Not many teams can say that in 2020. Given the postponements and cancellations, Notre Dame managed to deliver something that resembles a normal schedule. And not only did it play a normal schedule, but it was also largely dominant. All but two wins this year were by double digits.
The biggest win? The team that also delivered the Irish's only loss. Beating Clemson 47-40 earlier in the year, even if the Tigers were without quarterback Trevor Lawrence, is a massive resume boost. And in some respects, it's the perfect counter to its only loss.
Notre Dame's second-best win—a road victory over North Carolina—is also a decent boost given the way the Tar Heels closed out their season with an impressive 62-26 win over Miami.
The Case Against Notre Deme
The final impression is enormous. A computer program is not deciding the playoff teams; a collection of human beings who naturally have a recency bias will make this decision.
As such, losing the last game this group sees is obviously suboptimal. Perhaps the best news in the bad is that Notre Dame didn't lose as badly as it could have. The 34-10 outcome had the look of a much more lopsided loss near halftime.
It was still a dominant Clemson victory. But given the decision being made, it wasn't as bad as it felt like it was going to be. Every bit counts.
The outcomes have not always felt dominant. Notre Dame had its own Vanderbilt-like letdown against Louisville earlier in the year.
Like A&M, Notre Dame finishes its year without a conference championship. The Irish, of course, became a temporary full-time member of the ACC in 2020 because of the pandemic, which is why it was given a chance to win a title. The absence of a title simplifies the conversation: one resume vs. the other.
The Verdict
Given how little disagreement there has been surrounding playoff decisions in the past, a quality debate is actually refreshing for those without a horse in the race. For Texas A&M and Notre Dame, it's quite the opposite.
While the committee has shown to be inconsistent—and frankly, that might be kind—Notre Dame will earn the nod on Sunday.
Despite the freshness of the loss, the Irish still have the better overall resume. Four wins over teams with a winning record versus two for A&M. Two wins over ranked teams versus one. Notre Dame also has played more games, which is a strange resume item in a strange year.
It's not an easy decision. The outcome will not be met with applause, but rather strong, disapproving reactions regardless of how the committee handles what suddenly feels like a razor-thin debate.
But Notre Dame's overall campaign will be rewarded. And then let the fireworks fly.
