What The Advanced Stats And Analytics Say About Notre Dame And Clemson

Notre Dame vs. Clemson is a meeting of top-five teams in the Associated Press poll, but not in several advanced stats and rankings. In some, AP No. 4 Notre Dame is outside the top five. In others, Clemson is not No. 1 like it is in the AP.

Whatever rating system or advanced stat is consulted, these two unbeaten teams are among the country’s best. Here’s a look at a few.

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FEI represents the per-possession scoring advantage a team is expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Offense (OFEI) and defense (DFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantages for each unit against an average opponent unit.

• Clemson: 3rd in FEI (1.14), 6th in OFEI (1.27), 2nd in DFEI (1.35)

• Notre Dame: 6th in FEI (.86), 8th in OFEI (1.06), 12th in DFEI (.77)

The FPI is a predictive model that is rooted in projecting success (or lack thereof) over the course of the season based on 10,000 simulations using FPI, existing results and remaining schedule. The number itself represents how far above average a team is.

Clemson: 3rd (26.8), 36.7 chance of winning out

Notre Dame: 6th (19.4), 4.9 percent chance of winning out

ESPN’s Team Efficiency Scores:

Clemson: 4th overall (87.7), 9th offensive (81.7), 4th defensive (85.6), 74th special teams (41.6)

Notre Dame: 10th overall (81.7), 12th offensive (78.3), 16th defensive (75.7), 62nd special teams (46.1)

FPI gives Notre Dame a 34.9 percent chance to beat Clemson on Saturday. The Irish have at least a 71 percent chance of winning their other four regular-season games.

Created by ESPN’s Bill Connelly, SP+ is a tempo- and opponent-adjusted efficiency measure. It’s not a resume ranking, but rather a measure of what’s most sustainable and predictable in football.

Clemson: 4th overall (28.1), 6th offensive (41.0), 10th defense (17.0)

Notre Dame: 7th overall (13.6), 16th offense (36.6), 8th defense (15.7)

Here’s a look at the Pro Football Focus grades for individuals and team units. A single-game grade of 64 is considered average. On the whole, Clemson is PFF’s fifth-highest graded team, at 93.7. Notre Dame is one spot behind Clemson at sixth, with an overall grade of 93.6.

PFF rates Notre Dame as the No. 14 offense (an overall grade of 85.5) and Clemson as the No. 2 defense (93.5). the Irish’s highest-graded offensive category is run blocking (89.0), while Clemson’s highest-graded defensive unit is its run defense (91.8).

Passing matchup (PFF grade in parenthesis)

• Notre Dame passing: 82nd nationally (59.4)

• Notre Dame pass blocking: 20th (76.2)

• Notre Dame receiving: 49th (68.2)

• Clemson pass rush: 11th (80.7)

• Clemson pass coverage: 8th (90.8)

Rushing matchup

• Notre Dame rushing: 49th (75.9)

• Notre Dame run blocking: 1st (89.0)

• Clemson run defense: 2nd (91.8)

• Clemson tackling: 53rd (65.5)

Highest-graded Notre Dame offensive players (min. 150 snaps)

• OT Liam Eichenberg (90.8)

• OT Robert Hainsey (90.0)

• C Jarrett Patterson (86.6)

• TE Tommy Tremble (82.8)

• G Aaron Banks (78.8)

Highest-graded Clemson defensive players (min. 150 snaps)

• DE Myles Murphy (84.9)

• CB Derion Kendrick (80.0)

• LB Mike Jones Jr. (79.6)

• LB James Skalski (78.1, won’t play due to injury)

• DT Jordan Williams (78.0)

• CB Andrew Booth (77.7)

Takeaways

• Notre Dame ranks in the national top 25 in rushing attempts per game (17th), yards per carry (21st) and yards per game (11th). The Irish’s offense centers around the ground game, and Clemson is better equipped to stop it than their first six opponents.

• Throwing the ball has brought mixed results for Notre Dame, and Clemson’s secondary is tough there too. The Tigers are ninth in pass efficiency defense and allow opponents to complete 46.8 percent of their passes.

PFF’s overall defensive grade for Notre Dame is 90.2, which ranks fourth nationally. Clemson’s offensive grade of 83.1 ranks 17th. The Irish defense’s highest-graded area is coverage (91.0) and Clemson’s highest-graded offensive section is passing (90.1).

Passing matchup

• Clemson passing: 9th (90.1)

• Clemson pass blocking: 8th (80.7)

• Clemson receiving: 30th (72.7)

• Notre Dame pass rush: 17th (77.9)

• Notre Dame pass coverage: 7th (91.0)

Rushing matchup

• Clemson rushing: 46th (76.9)

• Clemson run blocking: 25th (72.3)

• Notre Dame run defense: 13th (81.8)

• Notre Dame tackling: 39th (69.1)

Highest-graded Clemson offensive players (min. 150 snaps)

• RB Travis Etienne (84.0)

• OT Jordan McFadden (82.0)

• WR Amari Rodgers (77.9)

• OT Jackson Carman (76.1)

• TE Davis Allen (70.9)

Highest-graded Notre Dame defensive players (min. 150 snaps)

• LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (81.0)

• S Kyle Hamilton (77.6)

• CB TaRiq Bracy (76.5)

• DE Ade Ogundeji (76.4)

• DE Daelin Hayes (75.7)

Takeaways

• The biggest part of that high passing mark is quarterback Trevor Lawrence (91.3 overall grade), who will not play. Freshman fill-in and former five-star recruit D.J. Uiagalelei earned an 83.0 passing grade in his first start last weekend.

• Like Notre Dame’s offense and Clemson’s defense, the Tigers can run the ball and the Irish can stop the run. No individual player has topped 100 rushing yards against Notre Dame’s defense this year.

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