What Needs To Happen For Notre Dame To Make A New Year's Six Bowl?
The College Football Bowl selection process is full of bewilderment. Even national experts and analysts seem to get confused about the rules from time to time.
After doing hours of research, I'm still not positive I understand all the criteria that goes into picking the contestants for each of the New Year's Six games.
For instance, I'm not sure a major bowl invite has to be given to the next highest-ranked team. If Notre Dame doesn't jump Penn State in the rankings, could the selection committee still decide to give the Irish an at-large big to the Cotton Bowl over the Nittany Lions if they wanted to do so? I'm honestly not sure.
I've seen language that would indicate end-of-the-season rankings doesn't necessarily determine who a selection committee has to select for a bowl game.
But this seems as if it's a moot point, either way. Unless a New Year's Six Bowl game is contractually obligated to include a participant from a certain conference, they tend to choose the highest-ranked opponent available to them.
It doesn't help that this season the only New Year's Six games Notre Dame can play in are the Cotton Bowl and the Orange Bowl. The Peach Bowl and the Fiesta Bowl, which ordinarily accept at-large teams, are part of the College Football Playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Rose Bowl is between teams from the Big Ten and the Pac-12, while the Sugar Bowl pits programs from the SEC and Big 12 against one another.
ORANGE BOWL
On ESPN’s College GameDay this past Saturday, Lee Corso spoke about what would happen if Notre Dame were able to go 10-2 this season.
“They’ll win their next one against Stanford, and they’ll go to Florida to play in the Orange Bowl against Florida,” he said. “Not a bad way to end the season in Miami.”
(This discussion takes place at about the 10:30 mark in the video below)
Kirk Herbstreit then reiterates this statement, but it's unclear if he does so just because Corso just said it or if he also believes it.
The issue with what Corso said is that when the Orange Bowl is not part of the College Football Playoffs, its selection committee appears to be contractually obligated to invite an ACC team, which will then play a team from the Big Ten, SEC or the Fighting Irish. This means that it would be impossible for Notre Dame and Florida to meet in the Orange Bowl.
Sbfletch pointed out on the Rockne’s Roundtable message board that there could be a loophole for leaving an ACC team out of the Orange Bowl. This involves there being no ranked ACC team, outside of playoff-bound Clemson, in the College Football Playoff Rankings after conference championship weekend.
I’m just not sure this is the case. According to their website, “the Capital One Orange Bowl will host the ACC versus the highest-ranked available team, from the B1G, SEC, or Notre Dame,” which does not explicitly state that the ACC team must be ranked.
The only caveat to is that in the five years we’ve had the New Year's Six Bowl Games, there’s never been a participant ranked below No. 16, let alone one that’s unranked.
So maybe there is a way the Orange Bowl selection committee could push out an unranked Virginia Tech or Virginia, but I wouldn’t count on it.
COTTON BOWL
I’ve heard that Notre Dame needs to be ranked inside the top 10 to make the Cotton Bowl, but I’m not sure that’s true. Last season, LSU was invited to the Cotton Bowl at No. 11.
What’s guaranteed is that one of the two Cotton Bowl participants will be the highest-ranked Group of Five team. The other spot goes to an at-large team, which has historically been the highest-ranked available Power Five program.
In order to achieve this, the Fighting Irish will likely need to be ranked much higher than No. 16.
The biggest hindrance to Notre Dame climbing in the College Football Playoff Rankings is the committee’s apparent lack of respect for the Fighting Irish after their 45-14 blowout loss to Michigan on Oct. 16. Ever since Notre Dame has been unable to move past No. 15 and even dropped to its current position in the poll after a win over currently ranked Virginia Tech.
For Notre Dame to move into the top 12, chaos must ensue and even that doesn’t guarantee much progress.
WHAT TO ROOT FOR OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKENDS
A win over a 4-7 Stanford team likely won’t move the needle much for Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff Rankings, so the Fighting Irish need the teams in front of them to lose — in some instances twice.
No. 15 Auburn — The Tigers host Alabama tomorrow at 3:30 p.m. ET. Without Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama is favored by just three points, but an Auburn loss will give them four losses on the season, which will almost certainly drop them below Notre Dame.
No. 14 Oregon — The Ducks host 5-6 Oregon State tomorrow at 4 p.m. ET. Win or lose and they’ll play in the Pac-12 Championship, likely against No. 6 Utah. A loss in either game should allow Notre Dame to leap an Oregon team with only a so-so schedule.
No. 13 Michigan — The Wolverines host the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes tomorrow at Noon ET. Unfortunately, I’m not sure an Ohio State win guarantees Notre Dame jumps Michigan. The Buckeyes will need to win convincingly (we’re talking at least two touchdowns, if not more).
No. 12 Wisconsin — Will it be enough for the Irish to move past the Badgers if they lose to the No. 8 Minnesota Golden Gophers at 3:30 p.m. ET tomorrow? I’m honestly not sure. This would give Wisconsin a third loss, one of which was to Illinois. At the end of the day, it’s best to hope Minnesota blows them out.
No. 11 Florida — The Gators host the Florida State Seminoles at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday. This game may have the biggest impact on Notre Dame’s chances at a New Year's Six game. Irish fans should hope the firing of Willy Taggart at FSU is enough to reinvigorate the team and leads them to an upset victory over Flordia.
No. 10 Penn State — It will take a miracle for Penn State to lose to 2-9 Rutgers at 3:30 p.m. ET, but a Nittany Lions loss would be great for the Fighting Irish. Otherwise, it’s hard to see Notre Dame jumping them.
No. 9 Baylor — Baylor has two games left this season: a matchup with 3-8 Kansas tomorrow at 3:30 p.m. ET and in the Big 12 Championship game against No. 7 Oklahoma. It will likely take a loss in both for Notre Dame to be ranked ahead of Baylor but, perhaps, a defeat at the hands of a bad Kansas team could do it.
No. 7 Oklahoma — Before the Big 12 Championship game, the Sooners must get past the No. 21 Oklahoma State Sooners. If they lose both, this could have a dramatic impact on Oklahoma's ranking but how much remains to be seen.
The rest of the Top 10 — It would be very difficult for Notre Dame to pass any of the other teams currently ranked ahead of them, but it would be helpful if the teams in the top four stay there.
For that to happen, No. 4 Georiga will likely need to be No. 2 LSU in the SEC Championship Game. That should keep the one-loss Tigers in the playoff hunt.
Assuming Utah wins, this would send the Utes to the Rose Bowl and prevent an Oregon team likely ranked outside of the top 14 from taking a spot in a New Year's Six game.
Unfortunately for Irish fans, the chaos laid out above is unlikely, and it doesn't even guarantee that Notre Dame makes the top 12 and a date with the Camping World Bowl is the most probable scenario.
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