Three things to know about Notre Dame’s Week 13 opponent, Stanford
After a year away, Notre Dame’s regular season ends in its normal setting: in California against a rival.
The No. 6 Fighting Irish (10-1) travel to Stanford on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, FOX), seeking their third straight win in the series. Here are three things to know about the Cardinal (3-8, 2-7 Pac-12).
1. Run game downturn
Three Stanford running backs were Heisman runners-up between 2009 and 2017. Their average rushing output was 314 carries, 2,002 yards, (6.8 yards per carry) and 18 touchdowns. Stanford had a 1,000-yard rusher every season except 2014 in that span, including six years with one who topped 1,500 yards. That dovetails into seven offensive line draft picks from 2010-17.
Add it all up, and the Cardinal run-game operation had no inarguable superior — which makes its dramatic downturn even more confounding.
In three full seasons since 2017, Stanford’s leading rusher has finished with fewer than 850 yards and averaged less than 5.0 yards per carry. This year’s team ranks 114th in yards per rush (3.26). The leading rusher, junior Nathaniel Peat, is averaging 5.3 yards per run, but on only 76 carries. Junior Austin Jones’ team-high 98 carries have netted 343 yards (3.5 yards per rush).
Offensive line play has unsurprisingly dipped. Stanford ranks 123rd in opportunity rate (percentage of carries where the line does its job, per Football Outsiders), 123rd in stuff rate and 92nd in power success rate (a measure of short-yardage effectiveness). Pass protection is a struggle as well – the Cardinal are 103rd in sack rate. They have topped 100 rushing yards as a team only four times in 11 games.
2. Defensive woes
Stanford’s defensive regression is nearly as startling as the run game’s. The Cardinal posted four top-35 finishes in yards per play from 2010-15, including three straight years in the top 15. They also ranked in the top 35 in scoring defense every season from 2010-17.
In each of the last three, though, they’re 75th or lower in both categories. Stanford’s 2021 unit might be the worst of head coach David Shaw’s 11-year tenure. It is 7th in scoring (31.3 points per game) — the lowest ranking in the Shaw era — and 113th in yards per play (6.42). In a related development, Stanford has allowed 128 points in its last three games.
The Cardinal are 126th in yards per carry allowed (5.81) and bottom 15 in sacks per game, tackles for loss per game and third down conversion rate. In the advanced stats metrics, they’re 106th in defensive SP+ and 89th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) defensive rankings.
3. A quarterback chasm
In eight games with sophomore quarterback Tanner McKee as the starter, Stanford is averaging 5.6 yards per play and 25.4 points per game. The Cardinal have surpassed 30 points four times with him at the helm. Nothing impressive, but it’s at least a pulse. Enough of one to put up 31 points in an overtime win over No. 3 Oregon.
Without McKee, the pulse is barely detectable. In two full games without him and two drives of the season opener before he played, Stanford had 21 possessions (excluding kneel-downs) and scored three touchdowns. Nine drives were three-and-outs.
McKee missed Stanford’s first two November games due to injury. He returned for last week’s rivalry matchup against Cal and threw two interceptions in a 41-11 loss. He is averaging 7.4 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
It’s worth noting all those picks came against three of the four highest-ranked yards per play defenses he faced (Arizona State, Washington, Cal), though he did toss three touchdowns and zero interceptions against Oregon.
----
• Learn more about our print and digital publication, Blue & Gold Illustrated.
• Watch our videos and subscribe to our YouTube channel.
• Sign up for Blue & Gold's news alerts and daily newsletter.
• Subscribe to our podcast on Apple Podcasts.
• Follow us on Twitter: @BGINews, @MikeTSinger, @PatrickEngel_, @tbhorka, @GregLadky, and @ToddBurlage.
• Like us on Facebook.