The prevailing ND football spring storyline needs to be player development
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Perhaps a bit lost in the more bedazzling storylines on day one of Notre Dame football spring practice, Wednesday morning, will be a rude and necessary reminder that follows practice No. 2 on Friday at the Irish Athletics Center.
In the form of Notre Dame Pro Day and what it implies about the state of the program.
Which is that player development still matters. A ton.
And gauging how second-year head coach Marcus Freeman’s model is faring between now and the spring wrap-up — the Blue-Gold Game on April 22 — is more than a worthwhile endeavor in determining the trajectory of the program that not even the NIL/transfer portal cocktail can dilute.
Once a cornerstone of former head coach Brian Kelly’s 12 seasons as Notre Dame’s most-enduring and winningest football coach, player development appears to have waned at the end of his run, based in part of on two-man NFL Draft class in 2022 and the prospect that this April’s could be as small as three, depending on how Pro Day goes on Friday.
“Five in two years? That’s almost embarrassing,” said longtime recruiting analyst Tom Lemming, publisher of Prep Football Report. “As recruiting analysts, we pay attention to NFL Drafts as a measure of, ‘Was I right about a particular player?’
“I’ve been doing that for 45 years. And sometimes you don’t hit on a guy. But what these potential smaller classes back to back tell me is something wasn’t right at the end of the Kelly Era. Maybe it was evaluation, maybe it was not going after enough difference-makers in recruiting or getting enough offers out early when Brian Polian was recruiting coordinator. Maybe it’s player development.
“I’m not trying to throw anyone under the bus, but maybe this is confirmation that Brian Kelly could only get the program so far in its pursuit of a national championship.”
Rivals250 rankings are loosely based upon eventual draftability of prospects in each national recruiting class, with the top 32 — five-stars — the projected first-rounders. There will actually be 259 players drafted this spring’s seven-round affair, from April 27-29 in Kansas City, Mo.
That equates to a combined 17 draft choices should be coming from the 10 top 250 players the Irish accrued in their 2018 class and the seven in the 2019 group. So far, they’ve actually produced one — safety Kyle Hamilton.
And none of the 16 others — with a handful still playing out their eligibility — are a slam dunk to join him. Defensive tackle Jayson Ademilola — working out in front of NFL scouts, coaches and personnel types at Friday’s Pro Day after being snubbed for the NFL Combine — probably has the best chance among those, including players finishing out at other schools.
Safety Houston Griffith, in the current draft pool, was the highest-rated prospect from those two classes — No. 43 in 2018.
“Notre Dame wants to be like Georgia, Alabama,” Lemming said. “That’s not how you get there, missing on evaluations or development. I think you’ll see a difference in guys making it once Marcus’ guys in another couple of years are draft-eligible.”
To Kelly’s credit, in the 12 drafts he presided over, the Irish produced 56 draft picks, including 10 first-rounders. In the 12 drafts that preceded him, those numbers were 46 and two, respectively.
Of the 56 Kelly Era Draft picks, 35 of them were Rivals250 players coming out of high school, and 21 were not and overachieved. The 56 drafted Kelly Era players work out to 4.7 drafted per year.
Given there are 36 former Rivals250 players on the current roster, that would work out to an average of 7.2 per draft class, knowing some might not make it and some non-top 250 players are likely to get drafted.
The position group with the most former Top 250 players going into spring is offensive tackles (6), followed by wide receivers (5) and linebackers/rovers (5). Notre Dame’s offense has 22 of the 36 on its side of the ball.
Safety is the only position group without a least one. The top three players at that position group going into spring are two converted cornerbacks (DJ Brown, Ramon Hernandez) and a converted wide receiver (Xavier Watts).
It’s also one of the position groups that most urgently needs to show player development, along with defensive end.
How the quarterbacks and offensive line develop will be compelling, given new position coaches Gino Guidugli and Joe Rudolph, respectively. Both have strong recent histories of doing so.
Ian Book (fourth round, 2021) and DeShone Kizer (second round, 2017) are the only two Irish QBs to be drafted in the Kelly Era.
Nine offensive linemen were selected during that time frame, including four first-rounders.
“The difference Marcus is making in recruiting is being the lead recruiter for every prospect and offering guys much earlier,” Lemming said. “Notre Dame would lose a third of every potential class by waiting too long.
“I think this spring you’ll see Marcus Freeman have a plan that’s equally effective when it comes to turning those top recruits into top players and eventually draft prospects.”
Tracking ND's former top prospects
Former Rivals Top 250 prospects on Notre Dame’s 2023 football roster, sorted by position group:
QBs (2): Tyler Buchner, Kenny Minchey
RBs (4): Chris Tyree, Audric Estimé, Jadarian Price, Jeremiyah Love
WRs (5): Lorenzo Styles, Deion Colzie, Jaden Greathouse, Rico Flores Jr., Braylon James
TEs (2): Kevin Bauman, Eli Raridon
OTs (6): Tosh Baker, Michael Carmoday, Joe Alt, Blake Fisher, Ty Chan, Aamil Wagner
OGs (2): Rocco Spindler, Billy Schrauth
Cs (1): Zeke Correll
DEs (4): Jordan Botelho, Joshua Burnham, Aiden Gobaira, Brenan Vernon
DTs (3): Rylie Mills, Gabe Rubio, Tyson Ford
LBs (5): Prince Kollie, Jaylen Sneed, Junior Tuihalamaka*, Drayk Bowen, Jaiden Ausberry
SFTs (0): None
CBs (2): Jaden Mickey, Christian Gray
*Note: Tuihalamaka may move from linebacker to defensive end full-time this spring.
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