The Numbers That Show Julian Okwara Could Be A Day Two NFL Draft Steal
Julian Okwara is at peace with wherever he is drafted, paying no mind to whatever perceived slip in his draft stock one year and a broken leg after generating buzz as a possible first-rounder.
He will be picked, barring some unforeseen circumstance, likely in the first three rounds of the draft, which starts Thursday night. Maybe, by some small chance, he will be the first Notre Dame player drafted.
“Late first round, second round, early third round, I’ll have an opportunity at the end of the day,” Okwara told NBC Sports in early April. “My brother [Romeo Okwara] is an example of that, and he went undrafted. He’s going into his fifth year. In the NFL it’s about the consistency you bring each day.”
In four years at Notre Dame — the final two as a starter at defensive end — Okwara tallied 15.5 sacks and 24.0 tackles for loss. He played in nine games as a senior before suffering a broken fibula in a win over Duke Nov. 9. The dip in production and injury were two primary factors in his slide largely out of the first-round conversation.
Notre Dame tight end Cole Kmet and wide receiver Chase Claypool, meanwhile, hopped in the discussion as the Irish’s best draft prospects this year with strong 2019 seasons. Kmet is considered the draft’s top tight end.
Dive into some deeper numbers and film, and Okwara’s pre-injury 2019 is not as steep a decline as his counting stats or his poor game against Georgia in September may indicate. In fact, it is not much of a drop at all, and an NFL team that sees his impact and grabs him as a day-two selection could end up with a heist.
The concerns, besides the health, are tackling struggles and average production in run defense. He is not weak or brittle, but his 6-4, 252-pound frame is not filled out. When drafting outside the first round, though, a player who can do one important thing at a higher level than you would expect to find in that round becomes an attractive option.
With Okwara, that is his ability as a rusher and the tools that are evident when watching it. This is the origin of the first-round chatter. He was the primary pass-rush threat in a defensive front that finished 13th nationally in sack rate.
Pro Football Focus’ unashamed affinity for Okwara — he is No. 28 on its big board — is understandable when taking a look at its numbers. The outlet credits him with a 19.1 percent pressure rate since the start of 2018, which led all Football Bowl Subdivision players nearly a full point. Ohio State’s Chase Young, the likely No. 2 pick, was at 17.6 percent.
Okwara’s pass rush grade increased from 2018 to 2019, from an already strong 86.5 to 90.4, a grade given to the game’s best edge players. It ranked behind only Young, Wisconsin's Zack Baun, Michigan’s Josh Uche and Boise State’s Curtis Weaver among PFF’s top 100 draft prospects and ahead of possible first-round picks K’Lavon Chaisson (LSU), A.J. Epenesa (Iowa) and Yetur Gross-Matos (Penn State). His two-year pass rush grade ranks seventh in the country, per PFF.
The disruptive ability comes from a charged-up first step and willingness to meet and attack blockers. Okwara’s length (34 3/8 inch arms) helps him shed blockers. He appeared on The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List before the season, which highlighted his reported tracked speed of 21 miles per hour.
Okwara’s two least active games in 2019 were Notre Dame’s two losses, where he had a total of three pressures and was given his two lowest pass-rush grades of the year, per PFF. Georgia’s hulking bookend tackle pair of Andrew Thomas and Isaiah Wilson — both expected high-round draft picks — controlled the edge.
Elsewhere, Okwara produced standout games against other top offensive line prospects. He had five pressures against USC and saw about half his snaps against likely top-three round pick offensive tackle Austin Jackson. He had a sack against Louisville and possible top-10 pick Mekhi Becton. In 2018, he had five pressures against Stanford, with about half his snaps against potential 2021 first-round pick Walker Little.
Okwara missed a chance to prop up his athletic traits with more numbers at the combine, his leg still not recovered enough to fully work out. He only did the bench press, where he completed 27 reps, a sign that he can mix power with his burst.
Notre Dame’s pro day set for April 1 was canceled, depriving Okwara of his plans to work out in front of scouts when near full health. He held his own personal pro day and ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash (hand-timed). He said he ran a 4.53 last spring. If taken at face value, that 4.6 would have tied for the fastest time among defensive linemen at the combine.
“Put a little trust in them that I’ll be back to what I am, show that I can run,” Okwara said.
Okwara said he’s “95 percent” back and is now five months removed from surgery to repair his broken leg. He had combine interviews with 22 teams. He estimated that if he ran the 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine, he could have pushed 4.5 seconds.
It could have fueled a rise back up draft boards. He had his sights set on more than a personal best 40, though.
“I would have killed all of them,” Okwara said. “I was really looking forward to that.”
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