Without some last-second heroics late Wednesday night from Irish senior guard T.J. Gibbs in a thrilling 62-61 win at Boston College, any ongoing discussion or analysis of a Notre Dame NCAA Tournament chase would have ended right there.
No mulligans remain.
Notre Dame realistically faced no choice but to begin its six-game one-and-done postseason mission Feb. 17, when it hosted and beat North Carolina, two days after the Irish were clubbed 94-60 at Duke.
Based on a lack of quality wins and a perception that the ACC is down this season, Notre Dame (18-10, 9-8 ACC) heads into this weekend tied for fifth place in a league that stands to land only four tourney invites, while hoping for at least five, once conference chaos settles around the country in three weeks.
A search for “Notre Dame” on the web pages of well-known bracketologists Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm finds no hits — not a “first four out” or a “next four out” … nothing.
“We have work to do,” Irish head coach Mike Brey admitted before leaving for his game in Boston. “We have more to do but there’s other stuff out there happening in other leagues as well.”
If Notre Dame can win its remaining three regular-season games before the ACC Tournament begins March 10, it would finish with six straight wins — including victories in 10 of its final 12 games — and with a 12-8 league record.
It’s impossible to believe that finishing as one of the hottest teams in the country and four-games better than .500 in the ACC wouldn’t be enough to get into the Big Dance, even without any conference tournament success, but that appears to be the consensus among the experts.
Former Irish captain turned ACC Network basketball analyst Jordan Cornette provided his sobering assessment late Wednesday, even after Notre Dame extended its winning streak to three games after beating BC.
“The margin for error is slim, and I’m talking super slim, you get one more loss,” Cornette theorized. “And do you know where that loss needs to come, in the ACC Championship Game.”
Brey doesn’t believe hopes for a tourney invite are as dire as Cornette suggests, but winning these final three regular-season games — which includes a monster Quad 1 résumé builder March 4 at home against No. 6 Florida State — appears to be mandatory.
The NCAA selection committee places each game into one of four Quads.
Quad 1 games — the ones that carry the most weight and attention within the committee — are defined by a high-quality opponent, with emphasis added for road and neutral site games.
Quad 4 games are considered your "gimmes" and don't rate as highly.
Notre Dame has only one Quad 1 win (at Syracuse) but it has two Quad 2 victories (at Clemson, at Georgia Tech), meaning all three of its Quad 1 and 2 wins have come on the road.
Overall, the Irish are 3-9 in their Quad 1 and 2 games but six of those losses came by five points or fewer, something the committee might consider when and if the time comes.
Florida State (14-3), Louisville (14-4), Duke (13-4) and Virginia (12-5) are the four ACC tournament locks.
Notre Dame (9-8), Syracuse (9-8) and NC State (8-9) appear to be the next and only other tier of ACC teams that could play their way into at-large consideration.
Based on its impressive 5-3 record against Quad 1 opponents and an 8-8 record in Quad 1 and 2 games, NC State is listed by both Palm and Lunardi as one of their last-four teams in, even while the Wolfpack enter the weekend off two straight losses and a sub-.500 league record.
Lacking quality wins — and holding almost identical profiles — Syracuse and Notre Dame find themselves outside of any bracket, with a lot of basketball to be played now, but while Irish eyes dangerously peek forward to Wednesday, March 4, in what could become a play-in game for ND against Florida State.
“We’re not looking ahead, but next Wednesday night a Quad 1 opportunity is huge for us,” Brey said. “But if you keep winning down the stretch — whether it’s Quad 1s, Quad 2s or Quad 3s — you can start to get into the mix and it kind of works itself out, so that’s the goal.”
Below is a capsulated look at where these three ACC “bubble” teams stand now and what lies ahead for each.
AT A GLANCE
(Includes Quad records, pertinent rankings, remaining schedules, and current mojo; with Quad-1 wins listed in parenthesis)
Here are some key links to follow and bookmark as the NCAA Committee goes through its invitation decision process:
Notre Dame (18-10 overall, 9-8 ACC):
• Record Breakdown:
Quad 1: 1-6 (at Syracuse)
Quad 2: 2-3
Quad 3: 8-1
Quad 4: 7-0
• Current Rankings:
NCAA NET: 56
BPI: 58
KenPom: 57
RPI: 87
Sagarin: 42
• Remaining Schedule:
at Wake Forest (5-12)
vs. Florida State (14-3)
vs. Virginia Tech (6-11)
• Mojo Meter
Streak: W-3
Last 5: 3-2
Last 10: 7-3
Syracuse (16-12 overall, 9-8 ACC):
• Record Breakdown:
Quad 1: 2-6 (at Virginia, at Notre Dame)
Quad 2: 3-5
Quad 3: 5-1
Quad 4: 6-0
• Current Rankings:
NCAA NET: 59
BPI: 51
KenPom: 51
RPI: 80
Sagarin: 50
• Remaining Schedule:
vs. North Carolina (4-13)
at Boston College (7-11)
at Miami (6-11)
• Mojo Meter
Streak: W-2
Last 5: 2-3
Last 10: 5-5
NC State (17-11 overall, 8-9 ACC):
• Record Breakdown:
Quad 1: 5-3 (vs.Duke, vs.Wisconsin, at Virginia, at Syracuse, at UNC Greensboro)
Quad 2: 3-5
Quad 3: 3-3
Quad 4: 6-0
• Current Rankings:
NCAA NET: 57
BPI: 46
KenPom: 53
RPI: 65
Sagarin: 49
• Remaining Schedule:
vs. Pitt (6-12)
at Duke (13-4)
vs. Wake Forest (5-12)
• Mojo Meter
Streak: L-2
Last 5: 2-3
Last 10: 4-6
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