Several Notre Dame players have until Jan. 18 to decide whether to return to school in 2016 or enter the NFL Draft.
In a several-part series, Blue & Gold Illustrated will examine the factors involved in their respective decisions, continuing with junior running back Tarean Folston.
Tarean Folston’s 2015 season
Folston’s 2015 season ended after registering only seven snaps due to a torn ACL.
In 2014, he rushed for 889 yards and six touchdowns and added 190 yards and a score through the air. After rushing for 470 yards and three touchdowns as a freshman in 2013, he became the feature back in 2014.
DraftCountdown.com analyst Scott Wright’s take
“I absolutely think it's in Folston's best interest to go back and get healthy. In today's NFL Draft, it's already a tough go for running backs. We've seen the position devalued and see guys drop more often than not further than where they're expected to. If I were a running back like Tarean Folston, I would definitely go back for another year and get healthy and put yourself in position to put your best foot forward during the pre-draft process.”
Wright on whether running backs should consider which other players at the position come out that season: “Maybe to a certain degree because I do think next year is going to be a little stronger of a running back class at least in terms of the top. … Right now, I would say Ezekiel Elliott is the only running back I would say is a sure-fire first-round pick among the draft eligible guys [this year]. Could there be one or two that could be in the mix? Sure, probably. There's such little difference between being the 30th pick and the 50th pick value wise. A lot of times it comes down to team needs and the draft order.”
Tarean Folston’s expected role at Notre Dame if he were to return in 2016
Notre Dame is at its strongest position at running back, at least for now, heading into 2016 in the Brian Kelly era. Freshmen Josh Adams and Dexter Williams displayed flashes of brilliance in 2015 and will return to South Bend next fall. Adams rushed for 7.4 yards per carry and 757 yards on the season and could certainly overtake Folston in 2016.
Senior running back C.J. Prosise also has a decision to make for 2016 and is the wild card in the positional overview heading into the offseason. He hit the 1,000-yard mark and served as a home run threat every time he touched the ball. If Folston returns with Adams and Williams — not to mention incoming recruits Tony Jones and Deon McIntosh — Notre Dame could opt to use Prosise at running back or slot receiver or, more realistically, both.
Prediction
As Wright mentioned, entering the NFL Draft after missing an entire season due to injury is not ideal. But it’s no layup that Folston would improve his draft stock by returning to the Irish because of the depth at the position. It’s certainly possible — and probably likely — that he would not be the lead back in 2016, but rather part of a committee like in 2013 and part of 2014.
With no clear decision here, it will likely come down to Folston’s desire to go through another year of school and participate in a running back competition. This one could go either way, but the 2016 NFL Draft seems to be the likelier path at the moment.