These are things everyone wants to know.
How big of a step back Notre Dame takes from last year’s College Football Playoff season will depend on the questions asked in this article.
We know what the Irish’s defense is capable of doing. Led by preseason All-American junior safety Kyle Hamilton, it could be one of the best units in the country. But what will the Irish offense do? The BlueandGold.com staff did its best to forecast that by throwing out predictions on a series of vital queries.
Will Jack Coan Reach 3,000 Passing Yards?
Mike Singer: Only seven quarterbacks in Notre Dame history have thrown for more than 3,000 yards, with Brady Quinn leading the way in 2005 with 3,919. In the Brian Kelly era, Everett Golson (3,445), Tommy Rees (3,257) and Ian Book (3,034) have eclipsed the number in a single season.
In 2019, Coan played 14 games for Wisconsin but wasn’t able to reach 3,000 yards. His 339 passing attempts netted 2,727 passing yards. This Irish offense should be more of a high-flying passing attack than what the Badgers had, but there are still plenty of question marks for Notre Dame at the receiver position.
Also, can Notre Dame’s new-look offensive line protect Coan, who is not as mobile as Book, long enough to find his receivers? If Coan stays healthy this season, I could easily see him eclipse 3,000 yards, but I’ll lean towards him ending up somewhere in the 2,700-2,900 yard range. It will be close.
Patrick Engel: I see Coan as the starter until we hear otherwise, and if he plays 13 games, I’ll take the over on him throwing for 3,000 yards. He should be efficient. Notre Dame should throw more often than Wisconsin did with him. Even if his completion rate drops from the 69.6 percent mark he hit two years ago at Wisconsin, his average depth of target figures to increase and largely offset that.
Notre Dame threw the ball often enough the last three years for Book to maintain a yards-per-game clip that would have translated to 3,000 over 13 games (he started that many times once). He was a career 63.8 percent passer. Only once since 2014 has Notre Dame’s primary starter not averaged enough yards per game to reach 3,000 over a 13-game season.
Tyler Horka: No. It has only happened three times during Kelly's tenure. Book barely reached the mark in 2019, though he came close in the two other seasons he started. Plain and simply, it's too much to ask for a transfer to come in and reach a passing yardage figure that's only been hit seven times in program history.
That's not to say Coan won't come close if he stays healthy and starts all 12 regular season games and a bowl game. The sport has changed. Even Notre Dame, who struggled to find an identity in the passing game last season, knows going through the air is the way to score these days.
Coan will be looking to stay in the pocket and pass much more than Book, who still threw for 2,830 yards in 2020. If the Irish's senior wide receivers are consistent targets for Coan, then he can sniff the number. But I predict he will not go over it.
Who Will Lead Notre Dame In Receiving Yards?
Mike Singer: Notre Dame’s returning receiving yards leader is Avery Davis (476). Behind him is Michael Mayer (450) after just one season. Kevin Austin Jr. comes to mind as an option, but he has just six receptions for 108 yards in his career as he’s struggled to find the field for various reasons. Braden Lenzy (317), Joe Wilkins (63) and Lawrence Keys (185) are also options.
But I’m going with Mayer. He will be the best friend of Notre Dame’s starting quarterback, and I could see him having around 650 receiving yards, which may be enough to lead the Irish if it’s a receiving unit by committee, rather than having a go-to alpha.
Mayer is an alpha in his own way, but tight ends don’t often put up gaudy numbers in college. Austin, Lenzy, Keys and Wilkins are X-factors because of what they could develop into, but we have a great idea of what Mayer will be this season, and that’s one of the very best tight ends in the country. He’s the safe choice for this question.
Patrick Engel: I’ll take the plunge. Austin will stay healthy and become a go-to receiver. His run-after-catch ability and verticality will make him the receiving yards leader, even if Mayer has more receptions. This also dovetails into question No. 1. If Austin is the leading receiver, I feel even stronger about Coan reaching 3,000.
Tyler Horka: Davis. He was Notre Dame's No. 1 wide receiver last season, and he'll be that again. I do think Austin will take a big step forward, but anything more than one catch for 18 yards would be a step forward for him.
Davis is going to have to compete with the mighty Mayer for Notre Dame's receiving crown, but in the end he's able to do more with the ball in his hands after the catch than ever Mayer — the one they call "Baby Gronk" — can.
Davis averaged 13.4 yards per catch last season. Mayer averaged 10.7. If Davis closes the gap in receptions (Mayer had a 42-24 advantage last year) than he will have the most receiving yards of any Irish player come December.
Will Kyren Williams Reach 2,000 All-Purpose Yards?
Mike Singer: In looking at some recent history, there are typically six to eight players nationally who eclipse 2,000 all-purpose yards. Former Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey’s 2015 season was ridiculous, as he totaled 3,864 yards. He ran for 2,000 yards alone and also had over 1,000 kick return yards.
Most players who hit the 2000-yard all purpose mark are very involved in the return game, which Williams was not featured in last season. He still finished 10th in the country with his 1,438 all-purpose yards. I doubt he’ll be field punts or kickoffs this season, so I will say he does not hit 2,000 yards.
Patrick Engel: Williams would’ve had 1,558 scrimmage yards last season if Notre Dame played 13 games. Is a 442-yard increase in a year where his offensive line will be worse really feasible, even if a supposed receptions bump comes this year? I’m selling on that.
Tyler Horka: If Notre Dame did not have a speedster in sophomore Chris Tyree breathing down Williams' neck in the running back room, then I'd be tempted to say yes — Williams could eclipse 2,000 yards as a junior.
With Tyree a focal point in preseason camp and the Irish wanting to prove to the college football landscape it can throw the ball around the yard a little, though, Williams will not hit that Doak Walker-worthy number.
But even with the evolving circumstances around the Irish's No. 1 back, I think he can increase his production from last year and land somewhere in the 1,700-yard range. That'd be a stellar season, especially if Coan and company figure it out aerially.
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