Outlining the help Notre Dame needs to make the College Football Playoff
Notre Dame is in the clubhouse and kicked back on the sofa.
The No. 6 Irish turned in their metaphorical scorecard — an 11-1 record with seven straight wins, likely two top-25 victories when the rankings refresh Tuesday and clear progress from Week 1 to Week 13. The final audition, a 45-14 win over Stanford, should push them up at least one spot in Tuesday’s updated College Football Playoff top 25 because of No. 2 Ohio State’s expected fall after its loss to No. 5 Michigan.
They’ll watch conference championship week to see if anyone bogeys its way out of the top four or eagles its way in. They need at least one of the former. They’re hoping for no cases of the latter.
What needs to happen for Notre Dame to finish with a top-four score? Three of the following outcomes not only removes all doubt, but should push Notre Dame up to No. 3. Two likely does it. One makes for an anxious Sunday morning. None extinguishes hope.
Alabama loses to Georgia
There’s still a lingering feeling the Crimson Tide could remain in the top four with a close loss, but it’s easier to envision a two-spot drop than three after a loss to the No. 1 team. That’s assuming, of course, Michigan replaces Ohio State at No. 2 and Alabama stays third.
Alabama snuck out of Auburn Saturday with a triple-overtime win that was another .500-or-better victory but an uninspiring struggle. The question remains if the committee will buy the Crimson Tide’s selling points to the extent that it overlooks two close losses.
This is the one outcome that, when paired with any other loss by a team in the top six, doesn’t lock the Irish into the top four. Even if you think there’s a clear answer to what the committee should do with two-loss Alabama, the apprehension around what it will do makes it hard to say for sure a Crimson Tide defeat will disqualify them.
Cincinnati loses to Houston
A 12-1 Group of Five team that didn’t win its conference feels like a playoff longshot. If the Bearcats lose Saturday, they would have the same number of losses as Notre Dame but still own the head-to-head win.
Never speak in absolutes about the committee, but the decision to rank one-loss Cincinnati or one-loss Notre Dame higher feels like one that won’t be dictated by the head-to-head result.
Michigan loses to Iowa
If No. 16 Iowa beats the Wolverines, the Big Ten would have a two-loss champion and no teams with fewer than two losses, effectively ending its playoff chances.
Oklahoma State loses to Baylor
We’ve known since late on Nov. 20 there would be a one-loss team playing for the Big 12 title. A one-loss conference champion will have a strong case to jump Notre Dame. A two-loss one will be out of the mix. That 11-1 team is Oklahoma State, which beat No. 10 Oklahoma Saturday.
No matter if Tuesday’s rankings push the No. 7 Cowboys up two spots and over Notre Dame, Saturday’s Big 12 Championship Game is the real decider. A loss to No. 8 Baylor in it will send Oklahoma State backward. A win either cements Oklahoma State’s standing after already jumping Notre Dame Tuesday or likely boosts it over the Irish.
Go back to the golf analogy. Oklahoma State is lurking on the 18th fairway with a chance to eagle. Notre Dame playing 3-9 Stanford last week and taking this week off does not provide it that chance.
A loss by just one of Alabama, Michigan, and Cincinnati combined with a Cowboys win might shut the gate on Notre Dame.
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