Observations From The Rose Bowl Rewatch: Efficiency, Explosiveness, RPOs
You probably left Notre Dame’s College Football Playoff loss to Alabama at the end of the 2020 season thinking the Irish are a little closer to Alabama and Clemson than the last time they played each team in the postseason.
Not before realizing, though, the distance between them still resembles a chasm more than it does a creek. The task of making up ground in a meaningful way will shape Brian Kelly’s next years as head coach. As allergic to discussing it as he was after the game, it’s relevant then and will be this offseason and beyond.
But before spending time on what Notre Dame can do next, it’s worth re-examining one more time the last piece of evidence — the 31-14 Rose Bowl loss. A week later, with the wounds a little less fresh for Irish fans, here are some thoughts from a second viewing.
Right Idea, Still Not Enough
Notre Dame’s best chance at keeping pace with Alabama’s point-spewing offense was to play keep-away. In many ways, the Irish did.
They ran 25 more plays (80 to 55). Excluding two sacks and a backward pass, they averaged 5.2 yards per rush and allowed just one tackle for loss on sophomore running back Kyren Williams. They gave up only two sacks against a disruptive front. Most of all, Alabama had only eight drives (not including a kneel-down before half).
So why was the result a 17-point loss that rarely felt that close?
Efficiency.
Notre Dame wasn’t going to match Alabama’s explosiveness. But the Irish had to meet the efficiency. The best ways to do it: gain meaningful yards on first down and make the explosive play gap somewhat close. They did neither.
Notre Dame had four plays of 15-plus yards through three quarters. Alabama had nine. Too big a difference. Especially when Notre Dame ran four more plays than the Crimson Tide in that span. (The largely garbage time fourth quarter, when Notre Dame ran 30 plays to Alabama’s nine, is most responsible for the 25-play overall deficit).
As for the first-down gains: Notre Dame averaged 3.1 yards per play on first down (31 plays, 95 yards). Alabama averaged 10.6 (30 plays, 318 yards) and gained a first down on a first-down play 13 times. All told, the Irish called 19 passes and 12 runs on first down.
The inefficiency on early downs set up 16 third downs, with an average distance of 7.7 yards to go. Notre Dame converted eight, but that means there were still eight misses in a low-possession game. Third-down misses usually end drives and force kicks. Playing keep-away against Alabama only works when a majority of the drives end in touchdowns.
Possessions that last eight minutes and take 15 plays are good, but they require perfection over a sustained time. On its 15-play touchdown drive in the first half, Notre Dame encountered three third downs — all short-yardage situations. Still, it needed a fourth-down touchdown plunge from Williams to score. It was impressive, but difficult to replicate.
With that blueprint, one first-down negative play or two straight negligible gains to set up third-and-long kills a drive. Sure enough, Notre Dame’s next two drives sputtered after failing to convert a third-and-eight and third-and-11. A little explosiveness is the shortcut.
Notre Dame held the ball for nearly 34 minutes, but it’s worth much less when noting the Irish had a 39 percent success rate. Alabama’s was 55 percent. (A “successful” play gains 50 percent of the needed yards on first down, 70 percent on second down and 100 percent on third or fourth. It’s the best measure of efficiency).
Explosiveness Disparity
Fifth-year senior quarterback Ian Book’s 11 pass attempts on throws at least 10 yards downfield was actually four more than Alabama quarterback Mac Jones tried, which on the surface might hint at equal levels of explosiveness.
No number lies more, though.
Book attempted only four of those throws through the first three quarters. And Alabama didn’t need to go vertical because it has the skill players to gain chunk yardage with quick passes.
For Notre Dame to be explosive, it needed scheme. Like a well-choreographed screen to running back Chris Tyree for 27 yards. Or play action and max protection to make sure a shot play has time to develop. Or just pushing the ball downfield with more frequency and effectiveness.
Those four 10-plus yard attempts from Book were two throwaways, an interception intended for freshman tight end Michael Mayer and a 20-yard completion to fifth-year senior wide receiver Ben Skowronek on a dig route just before halftime. Given that context, the throw to an open-but-not-unguarded Mayer made sense. It just had to be placed better.
Meanwhile, Jones completed just one pass that traveled more than 20 yards downfield, but Alabama’s receivers still had five catches of 20-plus yards. Part of that is due to …
Alabama’s RPO Game
… the lethal run-pass options that compromised every defense Alabama faced this season. Four of the five 20-yard catches were on run-pass options (RPOs) where the ball did not travel more than 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
RPO success is based in creating deception and favorable numbers. The first play of the game is a fine illustration. All three linebackers are drawn up on a play fake and taken out of passing lanes, leaving tight end Miller Forristall and a blocking receiver against fifth-year senior cornerback Nick McCloud and deep sixth-year senior safety Shaun Crawford. The receiver locks up McCloud, Forristall catches the pass at the line of scrimmage and scoots 15 yards, largely untouched.
The first touchdown to Heisman winner DeVonta Smith, a 26-yard pass 4:46 into the game, is a similar situation. Senior rover Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah bites hard on an apparent run (sold well by tight end Jahleel Billingsley coming to make a kick-out block), making his eventual retreat backward longer.
All that’s left is McCloud and freshman cornerback Clarence Lewis. Smith catches the screen pass and freezes Lewis. Receiver John Metchie III blocks McCloud out of the play. Sophomore safety Kyle Hamilton might have had a chance to run Smith out of bounds, but he charged a bit too far forward when he saw the screen. At least too far forward to catch Smith. This touchdown play and this scheme aren’t personnel-proof. Smith has to still bring his unmatched elusiveness and burst.
Alabama’s two longest pass plays were more of the same numbers game, perimeter skill and convincing run fakes. The linebackers see two pullers and step up, clearing the throwing lane. They have to be mindful of Najee Harris and Alabama’s dangerous rushing operation. Hamilton is over the top of Metchie in the first play in the clip below, far away from Smith. He follows Billingsley in motion on the second play and Jones throws to Metchie behind him.
The last play in the clip below is a defensive win, junior linebacker Shayne Simon defeating an RPO and likely big gain to Smith by batting down a pass.
Smith averaged 18.6 yards after catch on his seven receptions. The run-after-catch ability turns short throws into big gains. Alabama started its first drive on its own 21 and reached midfield in two pass plays, with neither throw traveling beyond the line of scrimmage. The Crimson Tide needed five plays to go 97 yards, and only one was a throw 15-plus downfield — a 12-yard touchdown to Billingsley.
Other Notes And Musings
• Jones threw at Hamilton once, a sideline shot on the first drive that required Hamilton to run from just outside the hashes to make a play on the ball. He did, nearly picking the throw off. That was the end of that.
• Sophomore center Zeke Correll held up fine in his second career start. He had an important downfield block on the Tyree screen pass. He generated plenty of push on Williams’ one-yard touchdown. He had the key block at the line of scrimmage on Book’s 20-yard quarterback draw run just before halftime.
• On the other side, Correll was tardy in picking up a stunt that led to a hurried third-and-eight throw in the second quarter. He and fifth-year senior right guard Tommy Kraemer also allowed defensive tackle Christian Barmore to slip through them without much resistance for a 14-yard sack in the second half.
• Senior defensive tackle Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa quietly had a solid game. He twice was too quick through a gap for center Chris Owens to block him, first forcing Smith backward on a reverse that lost six yards and later pressuring Jones into throwing away a screen.
• The third-and-seven designed quarterback run on Notre Dame’s second drive was an odd call considering the need for explosiveness. It seemed like one made while thinking a fourth-down attempt would follow. Until Barmore pushed past Kraemer, tripped up Book and forced fourth-and-five on Notre Dame’s 43-yard line. Even without his disruption, it’s still a fourth-down try on the minus-side of the field. Not much upside there. In trying to match Alabama, every play has to have scoring or chunk potential.
• Excluding the two spikes, Notre Dame called 28 runs and 50 passes. When removing two sacks and a backward pass, Book ran for 75 yards on 12 carries. Five were designed runs.
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