Numbers Crunching For Notre Dame’s Fifth-Year Seniors And 2017 Roster

Entering this December, only eight scholarship players on Notre Dame’s current roster have exhausted their eligibility.

Four of them were fifth-year seniors — nose guard Jarron Jones, offensive guard Mark Harrell, long snapper Scott Daly and running back Josh Anderson — while a fifth was in his sixth year (safety Avery Sebastian).

There were only three fourth-year seniors who completed their eligibility in 2016: team captains Isaac Rochell (defensive end) and James Onwualu (Sam linebacker), and three-year starting cornerback Cole Luke.

The Fighting Irish scholarship roster breakdown for 2017 is, so far, as follows:

• 20 fourth-year seniors, headlined by quarterback DeShone Kizer. He and two other classmates — left guard Quenton Nelson and linebacker Nyles Morgan — have submitted their names for NFL evaluation. They have until Jan. 16 to make their decision to either return to Notre Dame or depart for a pro career.

Because Kizer has been projected as a potential top-10 pick, he would be the most likely to go, although Nelson also has appeared as a first-round pick in mock drafts. Offensive linemen at Notre Dame have been less likely to leave until after their senior seasons. Until there is an announcement stating otherwise, the staff has to look at 20 returning from this class.

• 22 juniors, including wide receiver/return man Chris Finke, who was awarded a scholarship this August and finished by scoring touchdowns against Virginia Tech and USC.

• 23 sophomores, with 14 having played this season as freshmen, the most in head coach Brian Kelly’s seven seasons.

• 17 verbal commitments so far in the class of 2017, after Indianapolis Cathedral outside linebacker Pete Werner decommitted from the Irish yesterday. This occurred after his unofficial visit last weekend to the Ohio State-Michigan game and then a Monday in-home visit from Buckeyes defensive coordinator/linebackers coach Luke Fickell.

That takes the count to 82 — the NCAA permits 85 on scholarship — not including eight current Irish seniors eligible for a fifth year. If all eight come back to elevate the number to 90, that means barring any early departures to the NFL, transfers or medical hardships, the staff will have to trim five scholarship players from the roster to return to 85.

It’s not unusual to have 90-plus players after February’s signing date — as long as it reaches the 85-man limit by August. That has never been an issue.

Senior offensive lineman John Montelus and senior quarterback Malik Zaire will not return in 2017, with Zaire seeking another landing place to use his fifth season (i.e. Everett Golson at Florida State in 2015) after graduating this December.

With much help and analysis provided by BlueandGold.com analyst Bryan Driskell, here is a summary of the other eight members of the 2013 recruiting class who may or may not return for a fifth season in 2017.

Most Likely To Return: Left tackle Mike McGlinchey and tight end Durham Smythe.

Pegged by some as a potential first-round NFL Draft pick in May, McGlinchey has publicly declared since October the desire to return for a fifth season. He moved to left tackle his senior season after starting the previous 14 games at right tackle, but the transition was not overly smooth. He was inconsistent in pass protection, not the dominant run game force he was in 2015 and had an inordinate amount of illegal procedure penalties.

Smythe, who has started 15 games, missed all but three contests in 2015 because of knee and shoulder injuries, but he quickly won his starting spot upon his return. The Texas native caught only nine passes for 112 yards, but four of the grabs were touchdowns.

On The Bubble: Senior wide receiver Torii Hunter Jr., right guard Colin McGovern and guard/tackle Hunter Bivin.

Hunter Jr., a 2016 captain, missed his freshman season in 2013 while recovering from a broken femur as a high school senior. He started eight of the team’s first 11 games this year and ranked second in receptions (38) and receiving yards (521) while scoring three touchdowns.

Hunter Jr. was sidelined against Nevada (concussion) plus Army and Virginia Tech (knee), and took only 13 snaps in the finale at USC. His injury history and the fact he was selected in the 2016 Major League Baseball Draft and signed by the Los Angeles Angels could also factor into the decision for Hunter Jr., who got married during the team’s bye week.

It would make sense for McGovern to return for a fifth season. He started eight games this season, but injuries have ravaged his career. McGovern has twice injured his knee and suffered from a number of other ailments, including multiple concussions. That injury history and a likely battle with either sophomore center Tristen Hoge (who also has worked at guard) or freshman Tommy Kraemer — both prominent recruits — might prompt McGovern to hang up the cleats.

Bivin competed with McGovern at right guard for much of spring and part of August. Bivin received his first career start Oct. 15, when the Irish hosted Stanford, and he served as the primary backup at right guard and left tackle much of the season. His return remains a question mark, especially without a path to a starting position. A starting opportunity as a graduate transfer could be in his best interest.

Convincing McGovern and Bivin to return would be beneficial, if there is room. Should either decide not to come back for a fifth season, it would leave Notre Dame with just 11 returning offensive linemen on the roster.

Less Likely To Return: Running back Tarean Folston, tight end Jacob Matuska and cornerback Devin Butler.

After rushing for 88 yards in the opener against Texas, Folston (77 carries for 334 yards and two touchdowns in 2016) steadily lost playing time and carries to sophomores Josh Adams and Dexter Williams.

With Adams and Williams returning, it is unlikely Folston, the top rusher in 2014 with 889 yards, suddenly will be thrust back into the role as the primary ball carrier. That could result in him either declaring for the NFL Draft or finding a place to transfer where he can get more consistent carries.

Although Matuska helped on special teams, he played only 10 snaps at tight end this season. Not only are Smythe and juniors Nic Weishar and Tyler Luatua poised to return, but playmaking sophomore Alizé Jones also plans to come back after missing this season because of an academic suspension. Jones was going to be the 2016 starting tight end after compiling the most catches (13) and receiving yards (190) at the position his freshman year in 2015.

Notre Dame is also expected to add four-star recruits Brock Wright and Cole Kmet to the roster. Wright, the top tight end in the nation according to Rivals.com, is slated to enroll in January, and he has the size and physical skills to help right away.

Butler was supposed to be one of Notre Dame’s veteran leaders in 2016, but a broken foot cost him his senior season. The injury gives Butler an extra season of eligibility, but an August arrest — he pled guilty Oct. 17 to a misdemeanor resisting law enforcement charge — placed him on suspension and put his future at Notre Dame in doubt.

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