Notre Dame's NCAA Strength Of Schedule Ratings Under Brian Kelly
Attempting to rank college football strength of schedules during the preseason can be an exercise in folly.
Who would have thought with last year’s Notre Dame slate that a 3-10 Navy team from 2018 would morph into an 11-2 outfit that finished No. 20 nationally? Or how about 2-10 Louisville becoming a competitive 8-5 unit?
Meanwhile, one of the “power games” for the Fighting Irish from 2010-18 — Stanford — sputtered to a 4-8 finish to bring down the final grade, while popular Big Ten favorite Michigan came in at only 9-4, although that didn’t affect them against Notre Dame.
SportsBetting Dime’s odds-makers has developed a preseason propriety formula to determine strength of schedule based upon the opponents’ efficiency ratings from last season minus the production lost from the 2019 team, recruiting rankings from the past four years, and major transfers gained and subtracted. Factored in as well is whether it is a home or road game.
Among the 130 Football Bowl Subdivision schools, Notre Dame ranked No. 23 (Purdue was No. 1). Consensus preseason No. 1 Clemson, who is scheduled to play at Notre Dame Nov. 7, was No. 61 — part of why it is such a popular pick for the top spot.
Two other superpowers, Ohio State and Alabama, rank 14th and 15th, respectively.
Notre Dame’s final strength of schedule rankings, per the NCAA in head coach Brian Kelly’s 10 seasons are as follows — and wins by opponents against FCS opponents are not included.
2019: No. 28 — 90-64 (.584)
Notre Dame Final Record: 11-2 (No. 12)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 1-2
Defeated No. 20 Navy (52-20), but lost the two road games to No. 4 Georgia (23-17) and No. 18 Michigan (45-14).
2018: No. 19 — 95-62 (.605)
Notre Dame Final Record: 12-1 (No. 5)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 3-1
Conquered No. 14 Michigan (24-17), No. 15 Syracuse (36-3) and No. 21 Northwestern (31-21), while the lone defeat was to eventual national champ Clemson (30-3) in the Cotton Bowl matchup of the College Football Playoff.
2017: No. 3 — 97-63 (.647)
Notre Dame Final Record: 10-3 (No. 11)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 4-3
For the first time since 2002, Notre Dame recorded four victories against teams that placed in the final Top 25: No. 12 USC (49-14), No. 15 Michigan State (38-18), No. 18 LSU (21-17) in the Citrus Bowl, and No. 23 North Carolina State (35-14).
The losses were to No. 2 Georgia (20-19), No. 13 Miami (41-8) and No. 20 Stanford (38-20).
2016: No. 80 — 66-65 (.504)
Notre Dame Final Record: 4-8 (unranked)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 1-3
Despite the weakest slate in the Kelly era, the Irish had eight losses, notably back-to-back home defeats to 3-9 Michigan State and 4-8 Duke.
It did topple No. 20 Miami (30-27), but fell to No. 3 USC (45-27), No. 12 Stanford (17-10) and No. 16 Virginia Tech (34-31).
2015: No. 26 — 85-62 (.578)
Notre Dame Final Record: 10-3 (No. 11)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 1-3
Probably the most talented all-around Kelly team lost to the units that finished 2 through 4: Clemson (24-22), Stanford (38-36) and Ohio State (44-28), the latter in the Fiesta Bowl.
The win came versus No. 18 Navy, similar to last year.
2014: No. 34 — 80-63 (.559)
Notre Dame Final Record: 8-5 (unranked)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 0-4
The setbacks were against No. 5 Florida State (31-27), No. 12 Arizona State (55-31), No. 20 USC (49-14) and No. 24 Louisville (31-28) in the back half of the campaign.
2013: No. 23 — 86-63 (.577)
Notre Dame Final Record: 9-4 (No. 20)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 3-2
No. 3 Michigan State’s lone loss was to Notre Dame (17-13), while No. 19 USC (14-10) and No. 21 Arizona State (37-34) also fell (37-34).
The losses were to No. 6 Oklahoma (35-21) and No. 11 Stanford (27-20)
2012: No. 4 — 89-56 (.630)
Notre Dame Final Record: 12-1 (No. 4)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 3-1
En route to the 12-0 regular season, the Irish vanquished No. 7 Stanford (20-13 in overtime), No. 15 Oklahoma (30-13) and No. 24 Michigan (13-6).
The defeat came against No. 1 Alabama in the BCS Championship (42-14).
2011: No. 32 — 78-63 (.553)
Notre Dame Final Record: 8-5 (unranked)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 1-4
There was a conquest of No. 11 Michigan State (31-13), but the setbacks were against No. 6 USC (31-17), No. 7 Stanford (28-14), No. 12 Michigan (35-31) and No. 23 Florida State (18-14) in the Champs Sports Bowl.
2010: No. 4 90-52 (.634)
Notre Dame Final Record: 8-5 (unranked)
Vs. Final Ranked Teams: 0-3
The defeats came against No. 4 Stanford (37-14), No. 14 Michigan State (34-31 in overtime) and No. 24 Tulsa (28-27).
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