With 20 signings from the 2018 freshman class this past Wednesday — and a projected No. 21 from Oregon wide receiver Braden Lenzy today (Dec. 22) — Notre Dame’s scholarship total has eclipsed the 85 limit of the NCAA, with Blueandgold.com’s unofficial count at 89.
No big deal at all.
In February 2016, after National Signing Day, Notre Dame also was at 89, and last February it was likewise over the limit. Both times by August, or the time when the 85 limit is required, the Irish were closer to 80 than 85.
Transfers, academic casualties, disciplinary matters, medical situations, etc., are inevitable between now and next August, as they are every season. Thus, head coach Brian Kelly acknowledges that saving for those rainy days by overstocking the cupboard is a path that Notre Dame has had to take, as do other schools.
“It is a reality,” Kelly said. “Our situation here at Notre Dame is we have not been at that 85. So we've been more aggressive this year with that. I never feel really comfortable with it, to be quite honest with you, but I've had to get over that. … We've consciously been more aggressive in that fashion.”
Here is the current breakdown of the potential 89 as Blueandgold.com sees it, with fluidity possibilities added in:
• At most, we project seven fifth-year seniors will return in 2018. Three of them have volunteered to make it public: tight end Nic Weishar, center Sam Mustipher, and rover/captain Drue Tranquill.
The other four most likely to return are guard Alex Bars, defensive end Jay Hayes, cornerback Nick Watkins and punter Tyler Newsome. Defensive tackle Jonathan Bonner told the Notre Dame student newspaper The Observer in November that returning was not in his plan.
Watkins coyly indicated this week that he is not certain about his future — although Kelly said internal discussions with the players have given the staff a good idea about who is and isn’t returning. They have chosen not to make them public yet.
“We know exactly what the plans are,” Kelly said. “All the player [NFL] evaluations have come back, we won’t divulge those [for now].”
• 18 Fourth-year seniors
The X-factors are whether running back Josh Adams, wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown, nose guard Jerry Tillery and linebacker/leading tackler Te'von Coney opt to turn pro. We believe at least one might jump to the NFL after his junior season. Returning all four would be quite the coup.
Tight end Alize Mack, sidelined in 2016 because of academics, is serving a one-game suspension for this year’s Citrus Bowl, thus continuing a checkered career.
• 22 juniors, including Navy transfer/safety Alohi Gilman. He sat out this season per NCAA rules, but Kelly indicated Gilman would have been a starter.
No one’s future on the team looks more tenuous than wideout Kevin Stepherson, who already had an off-the-field arrest in 2016, was “unofficially” suspended the first four games of 2017, and is now under suspension again for an indefinite period because of a shoplifting incident a week ago.
• 21 sophomores, a group that was led by co-starting right tackle Robert Hainsey and reserve defensive tackle Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa. Running back C.J. Holmes also has been suspended for the same reason as Stepherson, although unlike Stepherson this is his first such offense.
• 20 freshmen officially, with Lenzy potentially No. 21 by the end of today, which would take it to 89.
Nevertheless, first-year Irish recruiting coordinator Brian Polian could still envision taking four more in this class for 25, or holding pat with 21.
"We're not going to take guys just to take guys, but they've got to address needs,” Polian said. “We could go to 24, 25. We may go to 21, 22. We'll see how it plays out the rest of the recruiting period.”
Polian recognizes how fluid a college football roster can be, and the data points he’s worked on with director of player personnel Dave Peloquin include attrition as a part of the deal.
“There are personnel decisions being made by young men on our team.,” Polian said. “You just look at the culture of college athletics in general right now, people are transferring at a much higher rate than they did, say, 10 years ago.
“…And my experience as a head coach (2013-16 at Nevada) taught me that one time a year there is going to be a guy that walks in and says, I'm just not happy, and it's going to absolutely floor you. That's the nature of the world we live in today. Guys want immediate success and happiness and somebody is going to decide this is not for me.
"So we have tried to take that into account, but we are acutely aware of the 85 and we are factoring those things in. I know we have the ability to go past 25 because our great compliance office has told us we can count a couple back (with early entrants).”
One way or another, rest assured Notre Dame will be at or under 85 by August.
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