Notre Dame-Michigan State: Close Encounters The Norm

No. 18 Notre Dame opening as an early 6.5- to 7.5-point favorite (depending on where you look) at home versus No. 12 Michigan State this Saturday night in Notre Dame Stadium seems about right.

In the 14 most recent meetings between the Fighting Irish and Spartans from 2000-13, 10 of the contests were decided by seven or fewer points. The last matchup between the two programs was a 17-13 decision by No. 22 Notre Dame over unranked Michigan State in 2013 at Notre Dame Stadium. It would be the lone setback of the season for the 13-1 Spartans, whose No. 3 finish that season was their highest since the No. 2 placement behind Notre Dame in 1966.

That 2013 meeting saw Irish running back Cam McDaniel score the go-ahead touchdown in the opening seconds of the fourth quarter, set up by one of four pass-interference calls against the Spartans that had Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio fuming. The Big Ten officiating crew called 10 penalties on the Spartans that totaled 115 yards in that game.

While Michigan State had much greater overall success than Notre Dame from 2013-15 and was the lone team in the Football Bowl Subdivision to finish among the Associated Press poll’s top six all three of those years, the 2015 Spartans also felt Notre Dame’s 2012 pain.

A magnificent 12-1 regular season that earned Dantonio’s program a spot into the four-team College Football Playoff became sullied with a 38-0 drubbing at the hands of Alabama’s juggernaut. The Crimson Tide likewise had a 35-0 lead against 12-0 and No. 1 Notre Dame in the BCS National Championship Game on Jan. 7, 2013, before going into cruise control during the 42-14 triumph.

Like the 2012 Fighting Irish that were 5-0 in games decided by seven points or less — two of them in overtime — and came down to the game’s final series, the 2015 Spartans played one close game after another. They won five that were decided by four points or less: Oregon (31-28), Purdue (24-21), the miraculous punt block and return at Michigan as time expired (27-23), the epic upset of Ohio State — even though they played without top QB Connor Cook — in Columbus (17-14) and the slugfest in the Big Ten title game versus Iowa (16-13).

Unlike the 2012 Irish, Michigan State did lose once in the regular season — 39-38 at Nebraska on a controversial pass play with 17 seconds left — but earned the right to be in the College Football Playoff even though some opinion held it was “lucky” the way Notre Dame was in 2012.

Nevertheless, it requires strong mental resolve to consistently win the close encounters in football, and that was a hallmark of the 2015 Spartans. Whether that can carry over into this year is uncertain because of the going-to-the-well-too-often theory and a huge volume of players lost from that team.

Yet the 2013 Notre Dame team also started 5-0 in one-touchdown games before seeing that streak end at Pitt (28-21) and then at Stanford (27-20).

Conversely in 2012, Michigan State was 7-6 while losing five games by four points or less. Generally, the close wins and near-miss losses will even out over time amongst top contenders.

A pattern at Notre Dame shows that every year there will be at least five or six games that will come down to the final series or one score:

• Last year the Irish won close ones at Virginia (34-27), at Temple (24-20) and versus Boston College (19-16), but had near misses at Clemson (24-22) and at Stanford (38-36). They also had to rally from a 31-24 fourth-quarter deficit versus USC to post a 41-31 win.

• In 2014, the Irish were 3-3 in games decided by seven or less points, and the same in 2011.

• As noted, they were 5-2 in 2013 and 5-0 in 2012 in such contests.

This year, Notre Dame already has had one near miss at Texas, a 50-47 setback in double overtime.

Will this be another game that comes down to making the plays late? The history in this series generally says yes.

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