Notre Dame Men's Basketball Notebook: Florida State
Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey has always been a believer in the law of averages, within reason.
For example, a veteran 40-percent-level three-point shooter will at some point balance out an 0-for-8 slump he might be experiencing. It’s virtually a law of nature.
However, Brey also is pragmatic enough to know that no team is merely “due” to break out of a slump. It has to be earned, especially in a Power 5 Conference such as the ACC.
The current Notre Dame men’s basketball slump involves a school-record 20-game losing streak against teams ranked in the Associated Press at the time of the game.
Since defeating No. 6 Wichita State (67-66) on Nov. 22, 2017 to win the Maui Invitational, the Fighting Irish have been on an 0-20 slide versus ranked foes that most recently continued with the 94-60 defeat at then No. 7 Duke — the highest margin of defeat in the 20-year Brey era — on Feb. 15.
On Wednesday night versus No. 7 and 24-5 Florida State at home (9 p.m. on ESPN2), an opportunity awaits not merely to just break the drought but get a long- awaited needle-moving conquest that would at least maintain the flicker of hope of vying for an NCAA Tournament bid.
During Brey’s tenure, the previous longest slump of not defeating a team ranked in the AP poll at the time of the game was six on multiple occasions, all in his first decade. That means the current dubious streak has been more than tripled.
When asked what has led to this precipitous plunge, Brey said he can’t give an answer.
“Maybe they’re just better than us right now,” he said. “It bothers me. We used to be able to pick them off enough to really put us in position. Given how we’ve trended two years ago and last year, it’s kind of who we are.”
Over the past month, Brey believes the trend is beginning to shift toward Notre Dame’s favor. After a 3-15 league mark and last place finish in the ACC last year, and a 2-6 start this season in conference play, the Irish are now 9-9 in the ACC and in a four-way tie for fifth place in the 15-team standings.
The missing piece is a victory over a ranked team.
“If we’re swinging back up and trending the right way — which I think we really are — this would be an important one to kind of show you’re kind of back in that territory,” he said.
“They’ve really done some neat stuff to get us in this position from 2-6, and it would be yet another step for them to kind of feel good about themselves — and feel like you’re getting better and more confident in March.”
Also essential is staying in the present and not with Bracketology theories that pretty much have the Irish eliminated from any conversation after Saturday's loss at Wake Forest.
“It’s a fine line of preparation, and I don’t want them uptight,” Brey said. “We have to wing it and go for it and not play with the weight of the world on us, even though the last five games here we’ve believed (about getting into the NCAA Tournament). That’s been helpful.”
TOP-5 STANDING
With Florida State on Wednesday and Senior Day on Saturday versus Virginia Tech remaining in the regular season, the short-term goal is a No. 5 finish in the 15-team ACC — or 10 spots higher than last season.
While the top four positions have been clinched by Louisville (14-5), Florida State (14-4), Duke (14-5) and Virginia (13-5), the Fighting Irish at 9-9 are in a four-way tie at No. 5 with Syracuse, Clemson and Georgia Tech.
“Not only are you building on what you want to do this year, but you’re kind of building forward a little bit too into the following season,” said Brey of gradually swinging the pendulum back into Notre Dame’s favor.
“Anytime you can have a winning record in a Power 5 league, I think it’s really powerful and it probably still gives you a chance to get in (the NCAA Tournament) given what you have to do in Greensboro (for the ACC Tournament).
“There’s going to be so much crazy stuff that’s going to happen — why not us get in the middle of it and be part of the craziness?”
Incidentally, two more victories would give the Notre Dame men’s program 1,900 overall. Only seven other schools have reached that benchmark: Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina, Duke, Temple, Syracuse and UCLA.
HOME SWEET HOME
Florida State is 5-0 all-time at home in its Tucker Center versus Notre Dame, notably the 85-84 victory on Jan. 25 in which Brey was fined $20,000 for his post-game thoughts on the officiating.
However, Notre Dame also is unbeaten at home versus the Seminoles (3-0), most recently an 84-69 victory on Feb. 10, 2018.
The Irish had several chances to win at the end on Jan. 25, and some controversial calls and especially non-calls at the end precipitated Brey’s outburst, although he does contend that FSU is “a Final Four level team” with its athletic skills and depth.
However, two other elements were vital in that Seminoles victory.
One was that even though FSU committed 18 turnovers, it also harassed the Irish into 15 with pressure defense and quick switches. Notre Dame leads the nation in fewest turnovers committed per game (9.5) while also possessing the No. 1 assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.74.
“It probably was the worst we were with the ball as far as live-ball turnovers,” Brey said. “They probably got about five buckets on steals and just an easy bucket.”
Second, while defense has been a prime identity of head coach Leonard Hamilton’s program, FSU is also second among 15 ACC teams in three-point field-goal percentage (.360) — while Notre Dame is 14th in three-point field-goal percentage defense (.340).
Both showed on Jan. 25 when the Seminoles were a scorching 12 of 18 (.667) beyond the arc. Notre Dame was 10 of 27, and is currently No. 2 in the league in three-pointers made per game (9.6).
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