In the world of athletics specifically, the “sophomore jinx” is defined as a time when a second effort fails to live up to the surprisingly exceptional standards of a successful debut.
Through the first four games of the 2020 Football Bowl Subdivision season, no team might better epitomize that than the Louisville Cardinals, who are 0-3 in the Atlantic Coast Conference after getting chosen to finish fourth in the 15-team league — behind Clemson, Notre Dame and North Carolina, all in this week’s Associated Press top five.
In 2019, first-year Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield had no place to go but up after inheriting a Cardinals program that finished 2-10 — 0-8 in the ACC — and was 127th out of 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams in scoring defense (44.1 points per game) and 122nd in scoring offense (19.7).
Up he did go, much more than anyone might have anticipated.
Picked by a landslide to place last in the seven-team Atlantic Division of the ACC, Louisville finished 7-5 during the regular season, notably 4-2 in its division, where it was the runner-up to superpower Clemson. Among the highlights was a 28-21 victory over Coastal Division champion Virginia, which earned a bid to the Orange Bowl.
For his efforts, Satterfield was named the ACC Coach of the Year after his program’s five-game improvement in wins from 2-10 to 7-5 in the regular season was the most among the 65 Power Five teams in 2019.
The icing on the cake then was a 38-28 victory over Southeastern Conference representative Mississippi State in the Music City Bowl for a final 8-5 ledger. Most noted was the upgrade on offense, which improved its scoring average by 13 points per contest and finished at 32.7.
An initial tone was set in his debut at Louisville during the 35-17 loss to Notre Dame when the Cardinals totaled 163 yards on their first two drives while tallying touchdowns to take a 14-7 lead. The ground-oriented attack would finish with a surprising 249 rushing yards and 5.3 yards per carry, but a flurry of fumbles — putting the ball on the ground five times and losing three — became too much to overcome.
Still, Louisville displayed enough signs that it was primed to rebound from the meltdown that marked the end of the Bobby Petrino era.
As head coach at Appalachian State from 2013-18, Satterfield guided the Mountaineers to a 40-11 mark his final four seasons and Sun Belt titles in three of his last four campaigns. The 2018 unit that finished 11-2 had a 38-31 lead at Penn State with less than two minutes remaining before losing in overtime.
A former 27-game starter at quarterback at App State, Satterfield joined College Football Hall of Fame head coach Jerry Moore at his alma mater as an assistant and was the play caller on Mountaineer teams that won three consecutive Division I-AA national titles from 2005-07 — and pulled off the epic upset of Michigan in the 2007 opener.
Now more in a role of the hunted, Satterfield’s 2020 Cardinals have experienced a semblance of the sophomore jinx with an 0-3 start in the ACC.
• Against the Miami Hurricanes, some continued woes on defense showed up while yielding 485 total yards in the 47-34 defeat.
• Versus the Pitt Panthers and their veteran defense, Louisville surprisingly produced only 223 yards of total offense in a 23-20 loss. Quarterback Malik Cunningham was sacked seven times and tossed three interceptions.
• Last Friday night at Georgia Tech — which was dead last (15th) in the ACC Preseason poll and coming off a 3-9 campaign — the Yellow Jackets outscored the Cardinals 20-0 in the fourth quarter for a 46-27 win. Cunningham tossed no interceptions this time, but Louisville lost three fumbles, while Georgia Tech did not have a turnover in the wet conditions.
Overall, among 76 teams qualified in the NCAA team stats this year, Louisville is 73rd in turnover margin (minus-2.0 per game, with 11, compared to only three by the opposition) and 72nd in turnovers lost.
The offense led by Cunningham (73-of-124 passing for 986 yards with nine touchdowns and five interceptions), running back Javian Hawkins (1,525 rushing yards last year and 468 at 5.5. yards per carry in four games this season), and the receiving combination of Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick — Atwell averaged 18.2 yards on his 70 catches last season with 12 scores and has four touchdowns this year in four games, while Fitzpatrick is averaging 18.0 yards on his 13 catches — remains one of the most dangerous in the conference.
“Really good scheme, really well coached, dynamic playmakers, an offensive line that is really good technically at what they do,” Irish head coach Brian Kelly summarized. “… Atwell is probably as good as we’ve seen in space as a skilled player. … Hawkins is one of the best, if not the best, backs in the country. It’s a very talented offense.”
At quarterback, Cunningham provides the type of maneuverability that Florida State’s Jordan Travis did last week while rushing for 96 yards against Notre Dame, especially because Louisville’s scheme includes option and quarterback runs in their outside zone-centered attack.
“Their boot game is very, very good, and getting the ball in space to the receivers,” Kelly said. “Defending [Cunningham] out of the pocket is going to be a big concern for us.”
Extremely disappointing for the Cardinals, though, is among 76 teams it is 68th in sacks allowed per game (3.50) and 72nd in tackles for loss permitted (10.0 per game).
Defensively, it is the first true 3-4 base defense the Irish will confront this year, but the Cardinals are 63rd among 76 in scoring defense with a 34.3 average.
With Satterfield’s track record as a leader, Louisville might be capable of returning to top-25 status as it was at one time under Petrino (No. 21 as recently as 2016, thanks to Heisman winner Lamar Jackson, and even a No. 6 finish in 2004), and also Charlie Strong, who in his last two seasons in 2012-13 was 23-3 with back-to-back top-15 finishes.
Now doesn’t appear to be the time yet.
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