For those eager to extrapolate Notre Dame’s poll position in the last just-for-fun-and-frustration polls before the first set of REAL rankings make their 2024 debut Tuesday night, don’t get too comfortable.
It’s more likely than not the College Football Playoff selection committee will have a different opinion about how the Irish (7-1) measure up in the first November snapshots than the No. 10 ranking afforded them coming off a bye week by the Associated Press panel of writers and the No. 8 rating voted by the coaches.
And sometimes that rating difference hasn’t been subtle.
First, here’s how the AP Top 10 looks on Sunday, with Oregon and Georgia remaining 1 and 2, respectively. Ohio State moved up to No. 3 after its 20-13 road win at previous No. 3 Penn State.
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The Buckeyes are followed by Miami at 4, Texas at 5, Penn State at 6, Tennessee at 7, then two of the five remaining unbeatens in the FBS, Indiana at 8 and BYU at 9 ahead of the Irish at No. 10. ND slipped two spots in the AP poll with the weekend off, but climbed a spot in the coaches poll.
The Irish return to game action Saturday night at Notre Dame Stadium (7:30 p.m. EST; NBC/Peacock) against a Florida State team (1-8) that got clobbered at home by North Carolina on Saturday, 35-11.
Meanwhile, ESPN’s College Football Playoff rankings unveil is set for 7 p.m. EST on Tuesday.
In the previous 10 years of CFP rankings, Notre Dame was present in the initial top 25 eight of those seasons, with 2016 and 2022 being the outliers.
Of the eight in which they were ranked only twice did the AP ranking and the CFP ranking line up perfectly — in 2019 when the Irish were 15th in both, and 2020 when they were second in both.
Of the other six, Notre Dame was ranked lower by the CFP committee four times (2014, 2018, 2021, 2023) and ranked higher by it twice (2015, 2017). The biggest difference lower was 2014, when the AP had ND sixth and the CFP had the Irish 10th. The biggest difference the other direction had ND eighth in the AP in 2015 and fifth in the CFP rankings.
Points of emphasis have evolved over time and so has the composition of committee members. But the biggest change in 2024 is that the committed will ultimately choose a 12-team playoff field on Dec. 8 as opposed to a four-team field as well as New Year’s Six bowl participants and pairings on Selection Sunday in previous years.
While the Irish had the weekend off from game action, the perception of ND’s strength of schedule took some hits. The biggest one happened in Columbia, S.C.
Texas A&M, Notre Dame’s most impressive opponent going into the weekend, got outscored 24-0 in the second half of a 44-20 upset loss to unranked South Carolina. The Aggies (7-2) went into the game as the SEC’s only unbeaten team in league play.
The Aggies dropped five spots to No. 15 in the AP poll on Sunday.
And Navy, ND’s most recent conquest (51-14), on Saturday dropped its second straight game. Rice — just days after purging its head coach, Mike Bloomgren — took out Navy in Houston, 24-10, in a game delayed three times due to the weather and for a total of five hours and six minutes.
USC, which hosts the Irish Nov. 30, didn’t help with future opponent strength of schedule. The Trojans fell to 4-5 with a 26-21 loss at Washington.
Two good notes on the indirect perception of Notre Dame. Louisville (6-3), which the Irish defeated 31-24 back on Sept. 28, re-entered the top 25 at No. 25 after wrecking Clemson on the road, 33-21. And Army won 20-3 over Air Force on Saturday to move to 8-0 and did so without starting quarterback Bryson Daily, out with an illness.
The Cadets moved up to No. 18 in the AP rankings.
Army head coach Jeff Monken declined to say whether backup Dewayne Coleman would be pressed into his second collegiate start next weekend at North Texas (5-3).
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