Midweek thoughts about the Notre Dame football program, its recruiting efforts and college football:
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SOPHOMORE CLASS IS THE FINAL KEY TO AN OFFENSIVE EXPLOSION
Back in April we used this space to talk about the talented 2018 class starting to emerge on the Irish defense. When talking about the sophomore class on defense, there is a need for members of that class to step into starting roles and in some cases those players have to play beyond their age, which is concerning.
On offense, the Irish have their leaders and top players established. Senior quarterback Ian Book, senior wide receiver Chase Claypool, fifth-year senior Chris Finke and junior tight end Cole Kmet are all established to varying degrees. Up front, junior Robert Hainsey, seniors Liam Eichenberg and Tommy Kraemer, and junior Aaron Banks are established and in position to lead a potent line.
Even juniors Jafar Armstrong and senior Tony Jones Jr. at running back gained valuable experience a season ago and are locked into the top spots in the backfield.
With the returning talent discussed and the fact the offense is going into year three of the Chip Long era, the expectations are that this will be Notre Dame’s best offense of Long’s tenure and possible the best of the Brian Kelly era. But will simply being the best of the Kelly era be good enough to make another playoff run, or better yet, will simply being better than 2017 and 2015 be good enough to challenge for a title?
We don’t know the answer to that yet, but I would argue that if Notre Dame is going to have an offense capable of leading the team back to the playoffs, and then competing for a title once they get there, junior Michael Young will need to break out and the sophomores on offense will have to grow up fast.
It starts with the wide receivers. Kevin Austin, Lawrence Keys, Braden Lenzy, Joe Wilkins Jr. and Micah Jones make up the class, and at least two of those players have to emerge this season. Not necessarily as leading men, but they must become playmakers and provide the diversity needed on offense that it mostly lacked the last two seasons. There is a sophomore tight end that could also prove impactful, Tommy Tremble.
Here is how the sophomores can make their greatest impact:
Explosive Plays: Notre Dame has lacked explosiveness with its pass game in each of the last two seasons. Outside of a small stretch of games in 2017 with Kevin Stepherson, the wideouts and tight ends were mostly the same player. They were players that did most of their damage before the ball arrived, which is why Notre Dame’s after-the-catch numbers were so far below those of programs like Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State.
Sophomore Braden Lenzy is easily the fastest player on the offense, and early in the spring he was showing off that speed, but once again he failed to stay healthy, which is concerning. If he can stay healthy and continue getting stronger, Lenzy could provide legit home run speed to the offense, something it hasn’t had since Will Fuller was blowing past defenders.
That kind of speed combined with Long's schemes and the run game potential would cause nightmares for defenses.
Classmate Lawrence Keys was a matchup nightmare in the slot during the spring, showing the ability to beat defenders across the field on drags and crosses, and the ability to use his speed and route running to beat defenders down the field on vertical routes.
Another sophomore, Kevin Austin, brings a combination of size and speed that is rare. There were stretches during the spring when Austin was unguardable, and even when defenders were tight on him he could use his size to out-play them for the ball. He’s the one sophomore who has the talent to become not only a vertical playmaker, but also the skillset to become a leading man. His technique isn’t there yet, but the skillset certainly is.
Depth Should Aid Veterans: Claypool, Finke and Miles Boykin played almost 90 percent of the wide receiver snaps last season, and you could see them running a step slower and wearing down late last season. The sophomore class stepping up will allow Long and wide receivers coach DelVaughn Alexander to limit the starter snaps, maintain playmaking on the field while they are on the bench, and allow for the veterans to be even fresher in November and in the postseason.
That means not only would the offense get the direct impact from the sophomore class, it would also make the veterans more effective late in the season. So the impact goes beyond just what the sophomores can do on the field.
Allows For More Creativity: Long likes to create matchups in favor of the offense, but the lack of diversity in the offense limited what he could do. We saw early on when Armstrong was healthy some of the things Long will do to isolate playmakers, but once Armstrong went down that handcuffed the Irish OC a bit.
If at least two of the sophomores emerge as legitimate playmakers their unique skillsets relative to the veterans gives Long more weapons to work with. Both Lenzy and Keys can be used in ways that could put defenses in a bind, and sophomore tight end Tommy Tremble could really be problematic thanks to his size and speed at the position.
Improving The RPO Game: To really thrive with the RPO’s the offense needs guys who can turn short throws or passes behind the line into big plays. The RPO’s were efficient and an important part of the offense last season, but if Long can get some explosives from those concepts it makes the offense extremely difficult to defend, because it impacts the perimeter game but also makes the run game harder to defend by requiring defenses to focus more on defending the perimeter.
CASE FOR A SMALLER RECRUITING CLASS IN 2020
Notre Dame’s class ranks No. 6 in the nation right now, and when you dig deeper into the numbers it is clearly one of the best recruiting classes in the country. The Fighting Irish have 11 commits in the class and it is continuing to add to that group, but just how many new players will the staff add to the class?
That answer I do not know, but I do believe we could see numbers in the class be on the smaller side. In fact, I would argue that going with a smaller class is the smart thing to do.
There are three reasons why a smaller class might be wise:
Potential For A Bigger Fifth-Year Class: Notre Dame currently has eight players eligible for a fifth-season in 2020, which is a big number. It is unlikely that all return, but when you look at who those fifth-year players are it makes it even easier to understand why the staff might want most of them to come back.
A big season from Book could result in him bypassing his final season, but the smarter move might be to return for the 2020 season. There is little doubt that Notre Dame wouldn’t welcome him back with open arms. The same is true for left tackle Liam Eichenberg and right guard Tommy Kraemer, who are both slated for a fifth-season in 2020.
Defensive end Ade Ogundeji is slated to take over as the starting strongside end in 2020, so bringing him back is a must. There is a chance that Notre Dame could redshirt end Jamir Jones and bring him back as well, but right now the 2019 season is slated to be his last. Long snapper John Shannon has been incredibly valuable, and if he’s healthy he needs to come back in 2020.
Tony Jones Jr. has a fifth-year option, but whether or not he comes back depends on whether or not he has an impactful season, whether or not he actually wants to return, and whether or not Armstrong comes back should he have a breakout season.
It would be wise for the staff to leave open slots for more fifth-year players to return, and if they don't the open spots could be shifted to the 2021 class instead of the 2020 class.
Distance From The 2018 Class: Notre Dame signed 27 players in the 2018 class, which was the biggest haul of the Kelly era. There are still 25 players from that class remaining, and the depth chart is littered with members of that class. A bigger class in 2020 would result in two big classes in three years, which could create some imbalance in the 2021-2022 classes. You only want to do that if you are going over your target number with impact talents.
Potential For 2021 To Be Even Better: It is still too early to really know if the 2021 class will be definitively better than the 2020 class from a national perspective, but it’s definitely looking like the 2021 class will have a chance to be really, really special. This is especially true in regions where Notre Dame tends to have success on the recruiting trail.
The fewer players the Irish sign in 2020 the more they can sign in 2021. A bigger 2021 class means the next big class will be freshmen when the last big class – 2018 – will be seniors.
For example, after signing seven offensive linemen in the 2018-19 classes, and with all seven expected to redshirt, Notre Dame can afford to land just two blockers in 2020 and then load up on a bigger class in 2021. When you look at the talent of the 2021 OL class nationally and regionally and compare it to the 2020 class it makes sense why the staff would want more numbers in 2021.
The same is true at linebacker. Notre Dame landed seven linebackers in the last two classes and odds are all but two will redshirt. So if you take just one linebacker in 2020 you'll be really good numbers wise moving forward, but you can then take a bigger haul in 2021, and that group will be spaced out more from the bigger 2018-19 hauls.
Now look, the one caveat is if you can add an impact talent that takes you beyond the low numbers you don’t turn him down. For example, if Notre Dame meets its numbers but standout wide receiver Jalen McMillan wants to pick the Irish in December there is no reason to say no. That kind of talent is just too good to pass up.
NOTRE DAME O-LINE vs. MICHIGAN O-LINE
I must admit, I was a little surprised to see the lack of love for the Notre Dame offensive line in the preseason magazines. Neither Athlon Sports nor Lindy’s Sports ranked the Irish line among the Top 10 blocking units in the country. Kraemer was named a preseason All-American by Lindy’s and he’s ranked as the nation’s No. 5 guard, but there was no mention of right tackle Robert Hainsey, who was the team’s best blocker last fall among the returners.
Even more shocking was the love for Michigan. Lindy’s ranks the Wolverine line as the third-best in the nation and Athlon named it the fifth-best group. Don’t get me wrong, Michigan had a solid line last season and returning four starters from that group should have Wolverine fans feeling good about things.
But a top five unit and better than Notre Dame? That I don’t get. Lindy’s named two Michigan blockers (Jon Runyan, Ben Bredeson) listed as All-Americans. Bredeson is considered the No. 1 guard in the country. Runyan is listed as the No. 4 offensive tackle and center Cesar Ruiz is ranked as the No. 4 center.
I just don’t see it. But if you’re going to rank Michigan that high there is no excuse not to have Notre Dame’s group ranked just as high. There are three reasons I say this.
1. Notre Dame was simply better last season: Most analysts would say that Michigan had a better front four on defense than Notre Dame last season. Whether you agree or not, what isn’t debatable is that the Irish offensive line out-played the Michigan unit last season. Notre Dame rushed for 132 yards in the game while Michigan was held to just 58 yards. Notre Dame’s line also allowed fewer sacks
2. The Irish blockers were ranked higher coming out of high school: To me this only matters when talking about hype, which is what preseason rankings is about. Michigan has three Rivals250 players slated to start while Notre Dame has four.
3. Pro Football Focus Grades: I’ve always felt that whoever does the grading for Pro Football Focus for Michigan tends to overrate them. Despite always having excellent grades the last two seasons, the Wolverines tend to fade against the better opponents on the schedule. They were dominated by Ohio State and Florida last year, and Notre Dame had a double digit lead for 50 minutes. In 2017 they were blown out by Penn State and lost by double digits to Ohio State and Wisconsin.
But even with that, the Notre Dame linemen graded out better last season despite being every bit as young as Michigan’s group.
No. 1 Blocker
Robert Hainsey (ND) – 76.8 overall / Jon Runyan (UM) – 69.9 overall
No. 2 Blocker
Aaron Banks (ND) – 71.4 overall / Ben Bredeson (UM) – 68.5 overall
No. 3 Blocker
Tommy Kraemer (ND) – 66.3 overall / Michael Onwenu (UM) – 66.1 overall
No. 4 Blocker
Cesar Ruiz (UM) – 65.9 overall / Liam Eichenberg (ND) – 63.1 overall
Notre Dame’s top three blockers all graded out higher than Michigan’s, and the only player who graded higher was No. 4, but you look at the numbers for PFF and you’ll see that interior players tend to grade out higher than tackles, and Ruiz is an interior player (center).
Notre Dame also graded out much better as run blockers. Notre Dame’s top three highest graded run blockers (Hainsey, Banks, Kraemer) all graded out better than Michigan’s best run blocker. Hainsey (76.1) and Banks (72.6) were all significantly higher than Michigan’s top guy (Runyan, 64.0).
STAT OF THE WEEK
It was broken down in a previous article, which was linked above, but I wanted to provide the data that shows how important it is for Notre Dame to get more explosive after-the-catch plays from the offense in 2019, which the 2018 class can provide.
TWEET OF THE WEEK
FILM TO WATCH
Notre Dame's quest to add to its secondary in the 2020 class has taken it to New Jersey. One of the top targets on the board is New Monmouth (N.J.) Mater Dei cornerback Clarence Lewis, who has the length and athleticism combo the staff covets.
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