Lou’s Confessions: Notre Dame’s Next Step(s) In 2019
The 2019 college football season will mark the 50th anniversary of Notre Dame ending its policy of not going to bowl games from 1925-68.
We bring this up because of the remarkable demarcation and, unfortunately, immense disparity from the first 25 years (1969-93) and the ensuing 25 (1994-2018).
• From 1969-93, Notre Dame played 290 games and was 215-71-4 for a .748 winning percentage.
From 1994-2017, the Fighting Irish played 310 games and posted a 195-114-1 ledger for a .631 winning percentage.
• In the 25 years from 1969-93, Notre Dame won more major bowls than any school in the country, going 10-5 in such outings — and 7-3 versus No. 1 and/or unbeaten foes.
In the 25 years from 1994-18, Notre Dame is not only 0-8 in the majors but lost those contests by an average of 21 points.
• In the 25 years from 1969-93, the Fighting Irish finished in the AP top 10 a dozen times (or every other year), eight of them in the top five, with three national titles and three more No. 2 placements.
In the 25 years that followed from 1994-2018, they have had three top-10 finishes: No. 9 in 2005, No. 4 in 2012 and No. 5 in 2018.
The chasm between those two 25-year cycles is stark and vast.
Once upon a time, it was an “eternity” when Notre Dame did not win a consensus national title in the 16 years from 1950-65 — although it did finish unbeaten in 1953 and won a share of the title in 1964 by receiving the MacArthur Bowl.
Without one this year it would mark 31 years, or nearly double the previous eternity.
So now we come to the query: What would define a “successful year” to begin the new 25-year cycle from 2019-43? Here are five boxes to check:
1. A Minimum Of 10 Wins — In The Regular Season
We emphasize the regular season because 9-3 would now be a disappointment. That is a compliment to the coaching to finally get to a level after a quarter century where 9-3 is once again a valley instead of a peak.
Plus, the Irish were 10-3 in 2002, 2006, 2015 and 2017, in addition to the 12-1 marks in 2012 and 2018. Been there. Done that.
Last year, Notre Dame won a minimum of 10 games in back-to-back years for the first time since the three straight from 1991-93.
Winning a minimum of 10 games overall for the third consecutive season, and fourth time in five years, would reaffirm Notre Dame’s status as a top-10, second-tier program, with only Alabama and Clemson in the first tier as of now. Top 10/Tier 2 is not the Holy Grail for the Notre Dame football program, but at least it shows a pattern of positive consistency.
At the same time, a 10-3 outcome overall would continue the malaise of “we’re still not there yet.”
2. Hold Serve At Home
Since 1990, or the past 29 seasons, Notre Dame has finished unbeaten at home only four times: 1998, 2012, 2015 and 2018. It came close in 2017, too, with the lone blemish a one-point loss to Georgia (20-19), which played for and lost the national title in overtime.
A fourth season unscathed at home under head coach Brian Kelly, entering his 10th year, would be laudable. That would match the four Ara Parseghian had in his 11 years at Notre Dame (1964-74) — and he never did it in back-to-back years (a tie versus USC in 1969 prevented a 1969-70 sweep). Lou Holtz did it three straight (1987-89) during his 11-year run from 1986-96, but he had at least one loss at home in each of his final seven years.
In the 69 years since 1950, Notre Dame has been unscathed at home 14 times. The overall record those years was 142-20-2 — a .872 winning percentage, highlighted by four consensus national titles, a shared one and seven near misses, or at least playing for it all.
3. Defeating A Top-Five Team
This opportunity should present itself Sept. 21 in Athens, Ga., unless Vanderbilt, Murray State or Arkansas State pull off a sudden upset of the currently No. 3-ranked Georgia Bulldogs.
Notre Dame has not achieved this feat since Sept. 10, 2005, a 17-10 victory at No. 3 Michigan in head coach Charlie Weis’ second game with the Fighting Irish.
Since the start of the AP poll in 1936, that current 14-year streak without a win over a top-five outfit is easily the longest, doubling the seven years from 1958-64 when it lost eight straight. It was in between a 7-0 win at No. 2 Oklahoma (ending the Sooners’ NCAA-record 47-game winning streak) in 1957 and a 28-7 triumph versus No. 4 USC in 1965.
This is no longer about “coming close,” or “looking respectable.” It’s way, way, way overdue to end this dubious trend. Until Notre Dame does, the rest of the nation, fair or unfair, will perceive Notre Dame as the “same ol’, same ol’” operation it has been the past 25 years.
4. A Sweep Of Michigan And USC
Over the past 40 years, these two have been Notre Dame’s prime marquee rivals.
There have been 33 seasons where Notre Dame played both Michigan and USC, and it swept them seven times. In those seven years, the Irish regular-season record was 73-7 (.913).
Moreover, since 1994, the Irish have played both the Wolverines and Trojans 18 times in the same year. Only twice were both conquered — and not coincidentally it was the 12-0 regular seasons in 2012 and 2018. This will be the first year ever the Irish face the Trojans (Oct. 12) and Wolverines (Oct. 26) in consecutive games, although there is a bye in between.
5. Win A Major Bowl, Which Could Again Include The Playoff
Over the past 25 years, Notre Dame has lost a minimum of three games 23 times. The outliers were the 12-1 finishes in 2012 and 2018.
For 2019 to be truly different, the Fighting Irish must either finish the regular season 10-2 and then win a Big Six bowl for the first time since the 1993 campaign, or make the College Football Playoff a second straight year, but this time win the semifinal.
Achieving four of these five would constitute continued advancement toward the summit.