Notre Dame-USC: Tale Of The Turnovers
In any matchup, there are numerous crucial metrics evaluated, including run defense, pass efficiency offense… and certainly turnover margin.
There is no single data that is more glaring or conspicuous in this weekend’s matchup between No. 9 Notre Dame (4-1) and USC (3-2) than turnovers.
Among 130 Football Bowl Subdivision teams, the Fighting Irish rank No. 2 in turnover margin at plus-2.00 per game ratio (14 generated and only four lost). Only San Jose State is higher at plus-2.20 (15 forced, four lost). The only two teams to manufacture more turnovers are Florida (17) and San Jose State.
What especially stands out about this for second-year defensive coordinator Clark Lea’s troops is in three of head coach Brian Kelly’s first nine seasons from 2010-18, the Irish defense totaled 14 turnovers for the entire season (2011, 2015 and 2016), and the most was 25 in his debut campaign (18 interceptions, seven fumbles).
Currently, Notre Dame is on pace to reach at least 30 for the first time since 2002, when under first-year head coach Tyrone Willingham the team forced 33 (21 interceptions, 12 fumbles).
For the record, reaching the school record of 58 (32 interceptions, 26 fumbles) by the 1977 national champs — highlighted by six in the Cotton Bowl rout of No. 1 Texas — is a pipe dream and unapproachable, much like Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak.
Meanwhile, the Trojans are tied at No. 122 in turnover margin with a minus-1.40 (gaining only six while losing it 13 times on fumbles or interceptions).
This metric proved especially crucial in the two defeats, 30-27 in overtime at BYU on Sept. 24, and 28-14 at Washington on Sept. 28, before heading into their bye weekend last Saturday.
At BYU, USC out-rushed the Cougars 171-131 — but had a 3-0 deficit in turnovers, all interceptions tossed by freshman quarterback Kedon Slovis, including the last one in overtime on a tipped pass.
At Washington, the Trojans racked up an impressive 212 yards rushing and 6.4 yards per carry, most notably a 60-yard run by Stephen Carr at a crucial juncture in the game. However, that was soon followed by one of three interceptions tossed by Matt Fink (in for the injured Slovis) as USC again lost the turnover battle, 3-1.
What makes USC dangerous is the talent can sometimes overcome the miscues, which was especially evident in the 30-23 conquest of No. 10 Utah on Sept. 20. The Trojans committed 117 yards in penalties, rushed for only 13 yards, played its No. 3 quarterback (Fink) and missed 20 tackles, per Pro Football Focus — yet still emerged victorious against a quality foe.
Last year when 11-0 Notre Dame had a playoff bid on the line at 5-6 USC, turnovers helped do in the Trojans as well.
First, after USC scored on its first series for a 7-0 lead, then freshman quarterback J.T. Daniels (sidelined for the 2019 after suffering a torn ACL in the opener) connected on numerous short tosses to march the Trojans from their five-yard line to Notre Dame’s 33-yard line — before cornerback Troy Pride Jr. forced a Michael Pittman fumble, which Pride also recovered.
Next, with USC still leading 10-7 and one minute left in the first half, wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown was stripped of the football by safety Alohi Gilman near the Irish 15-yard line, which linebacker Drue Tranquill recovered. Had the Trojans been able to make it 17-7 right before halftime, the game pressure on the Irish would have been far more pronounced.
Winning that turnover battle 2-1 proved crucial in Notre Dame's 24-17 triumph and, per usual, should be a likely factor again.
In addition to its No. 2-ranking nationally in turnover margin, the Fighting Irish lead the nation in consecutive carries by their running backs without losing a fumble — 1,211, dating back to 2015. Northwestern is No. 2 at 1,152.
Also notable in this year’s matchup is whereas Notre Dame is one of only four teams with a perfect red-zone mark at 20 of 20 — highlighted by an exception 17 touchdowns (.850) — USC is 105th at 14 of 19, with only 11 of them touchdowns.
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