Notre Dame Continuing Top-10 Theme
The 2020 preseason expectations for Notre Dame’s football program are pretty much in line with what it finished the past three years with an average ranking of 9.3: No. 11 in 2017, No. 5 in 2018 and No. 12 in 2019.
So far this year among five major college football outlets, the Fighting Irish have a 10.8 average ranking.
• No. 8 in Sporting News
• No. 9 in Athlon Sports
• No. 10 in Lindy’s
• No. 11 in Street & Smith’s
• No. 16 in ESPN’s Football Power Index
Subtract the somewhat outlier ESPN version and it would be at 9.5, which has been the norm since 2017.
However, here is a notable fact: The last time Notre Dame began a football season in the Associated Press top 10 and actually finished there as well was 1993. It was No. 7 in the preseason and ended up No. 2 — despite defeating No. 1 Florida State 31‑24 on Nov. 13.
It came close last year, when the No. 9 preseason ranking was the highest start in the 10-year Brian Kelly era. As noted, the Fighting Irish finished No. 12 with an 11‑2 mark, despite ending the year with a six-game winning streak, their longest to cap a season since 1992 when they won their final seven.
In the 26 football seasons from 1994‑2019, Notre Dame was ranked 17 times in the AP preseason top 25. The lone year out of those 17 where it finished higher (No. 5) than where it started (No. 12) was 2018, when it advanced to the College Football Playoff.
Conversely, in the nine other seasons the Fighting Irish were not ranked in the AP preseason top 25 from 1994-2017, they finished in the final rankings five times — including the top 10 in both 2012 (No. 4) and 2005 (No. 9).
Those two seasons plus 2018 mark the last three times since 1994 Notre Dame concluded the campaign amongst the top 10.
Until last year’s No. 9 preseason ranking in the AP, the highest under Kelly came in, believe it or not, 2016, when it began No. 10 that August. It marked the first time since the No. 2 rating in 2006 that Notre Dame started the season in the top 10.
Unfortunately, that 2016 train wreck commenced with a 50-47 double-overtime defeat in Texas, which finished 6-7, included back-to-back home losses at the hands of 3-9 Michigan State and 4-8 Duke, and a setback versus Navy that resulted in a 4-8 finish.
The silver lining from that implosion was it forced a massive overhaul of the infrastructure that has resulted in a 33-6 output the past three years, the sixth-best winning percentage among the 65 Power Five teams.
There are several safe preseason projections, especially since the advent of the College Football Playoff in 2014:
• In the four-team CFP’s six-year history, Alabama advanced there each of the first five years while Clemson has done so each of the past five.
• Oklahoma has been in the CFP three of the last four campaigns.
• Ohio State remains the overwhelming favorite to represent the Big Ten.
Notre Dame has clearly established itself as, cumulatively, a top-10 program the past three years, as evidenced for the most in its preseason and postseason average.
The 2020s will answer how much farther it can go to build on the current momentum.
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