The preferred preseason ranking for the analytically inclined has been updated.
ESPN’s Bill Connelly has released another version of his SP+ rankings for the 2021 season for all 130 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision, this time with NFL departures, returning seniors and transfers factored into the equation. The formula he uses to compute them isn’t as bullish on Notre Dame’s outlook as most media outlets’ way-too-early top 25s.
The Irish are 25th in the preseason SP+, with an overall rating of 14.6. They’re 34th in offensive SP+ and 26th in defensive SP+.
Connelly’s preseason rankings are rooted in three primary factors: returning production, recent recruiting and recent history. Returning production adjustments to last year’s final SP+ ranking are about two-thirds of the equation, recruiting is about a quarter of it and recent history makes up a smaller fraction, he wrote.
“It's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency,” Connelly writes of his rankings. “SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. That is important to remember. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”
When evaluating Notre Dame, it’s the returning production – or lack thereof – that made SP+ think less of the Irish than the eyeball-based human polls. Notre Dame’s average ranking in six way-too-early top 25s was 9.3. The lowest of those six was 15th, from ESPN’s Mark Schlabach.
“Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish have finished in the SP+ top 20 for six straight years -- including when they lost a ton of close, unlikely games and finished 4-8 in 2016,” Connelly wrote. “Why did they end up this low despite top-10 level recruiting? A combination of two things: SP+ utterly hated their performances against Clemson and Alabama to finish 2020, dropping them from fourth in early December to 16th.
“Then they lost more production than almost anyone in the country: They rank ahead of only four teams in the category (BYU, Northwestern, Temple and South Carolina). I'll still assume they play at a top-20 level, but this does suggest that their floor might temporarily be lower than we've seen in recent years.”
Among the biggest personnel losses for Notre Dame are three-year starting quarterback Ian Book, four three-year starters on the offensive line, starting defensive ends Ade Ogundeji and Daelin Hayes (combined 10 sacks, 13 tackles for loss in 2020) and top two wide receivers Javon McKinley and Ben Skowronek (71 catches, 1,156 yards, 8 touchdowns).
Notre Dame will fill most of those spots with players backups who made a just small dent in overall returning production. Quarterback, though, has a grad transfer candidate who brings some external production. Former Wisconsin starter Jack Coan has 18 career starts and threw for 2,727 yards, 18 touchdowns and five interceptions in 2019, when the Badgers went 10-4.
The SP+ top 25:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Ohio State
5. Oregon
6. Georgia
7. Iowa State
8. Miami
9. Wisconsin
10. North Carolina
11. Washington
12. Florida
13. Texas A&M
14. Penn State
15. Cincinnati
16. Iowa
17. USC
18. Arizona State
19. Utah
20. Texas
21. UCLA
22. Louisiana
23. Michigan
24. Ole Miss
25. Notre Dame
LSU, Indiana, Auburn, Oklahoma State and Nebraska round out the top 30.
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