For full disclosure, I’ve never been a football coach and the extent of my knowledge when it comes to Xs and Os is knowing how to spell xerox and expo.
But I do enjoy studying numbers, statistics and trends, and No. 4 Notre Dame (10-1) versus No. 1 Alabama (11-0) provides plenty of intrigue in all three when trying to devise a plan for the Irish as 20-point underdogs to knock off the Crimson Tide.
Other than its 52-46 win over No. 7 Florida in the SEC Championship game, Alabama beat each of its 10 other opponents by at least 15 points and it didn’t score fewer than 38 points in any game.
What’s it mean?
It means that if Notre Dame has a repeat performance in the first quarter against Alabama that it displayed early in the ACC Championship game during a 34-10 rout to Clemson, this will become the latest Irish marquee matchup with the lights dimmed before halftime.
Notre Dame moved the ball into Clemson territory on each of its three first-quarter possessions, then settled for one field goal, a missed field goal, an over-on-downs, and a 3-0 lead.
The Irish didn’t cross midfield again until the fourth quarter while the Tigers scored on six of eight possessions and hung 34 unanswered points.
Any expertise of Xs and Os isn’t needed to recognize that more short possessions, empty trips, extended scoring droughts and field-goal attempts from Notre Dame against Alabama will bring much angst and channel surfing.
The Crimson Tide offense tallied at least 50 points six times this season and ranks second in the country with 49.7 points per game.
“Certainly we’re cognizant of the fact that this is an electric offense and scores bushels and bushels of points,” Irish head coach Brian Kelly admitted. “We can’t be three and out.”
Not an easy task, though, Alabama surprisingly ranks only 70th in the country at holding opponents on third-down while Notre Dame is No. 9 in converting those.
Conversely, the Alabama offense ranks No. 1 in third-down conversion success — by no coincidence — because it ranks first nationally in first-down offense. The Irish counter with the sixth best third-down defense in the nation.
“We want to hold onto the football,” Kelly said of winning the third-down battles, “because we want to play complementary football and keep Alabama’s offense off the field as best we can.”
Kelly referenced three Alabama opponents — Georgia, Ole Miss and Florida — that stayed “in the game” by finding some success moving the ball against a Crimson Tide defense that surprisingly ranks only 31st nationally in yardage and 17th in scoring (19.5 points per game).
Ole Miss hit Alabama with two 100-plus yard rushers and 268 total rushing yards, Georgia rushed for 145 yards, and Florida Heisman Trophy finalist, quarterback Kyle Trask, shredded the Crimson Tide secondary for 408 yards and three touchdowns in the SEC Championship Game.
All serve as encouraging news for a balanced Notre Dame offense that ranks 22nd overall and 21st in scoring (35.2 points per game). But lest we forget, Alabama averaged 52 points against Ole Miss, Georgia and Florida, and the Crimson Tide won those three games by an average of 13 points per.
With Alabama listed as a 20-point favorite over the Irish, along with an over/under line of 66 total points in the game, Vegas is expecting a final score of Alabama 43, Notre Dame 23.
And we all can agree, if Alabama gets to 43 points or Notre Dame manages only 23 points, there is no chance for an Irish upset … no advanced X’s or O’s acumen necessary there.
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