History Shows Notre Dame Is Down, But Not Out
The rest of the week – and throughout the offseason – I will be posting articles that are highly critical of Notre Dame’s performance through the first seven games of the 2016 season. When you enter the season as a preseason top ten team and have many pundits projecting you as a potential playoff team, going 2-5 to start the season that is going to happen.
Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly went 55-23 during his first six seasons at Notre Dame, leading the Irish to the 2013 BCS National Championship game and the 2016 Fiesta Bowl.
Notre Dame wasn’t exactly the model of consistency under Kelly, but he won enough games to give him significant credibility.
Going into the season the thought of Kelly coaching for his job at any point this season would have seemed absurd, but that is exactly where he finds himself.
Instead of going into the bye week thinking about the College Football Playoff polls, Notre Dame fans are spending their time talking about who should be the next head coach at Notre Dame, and with many it isn’t Brian Kelly.
The question must be asked, how does a coach in his seventh season at a major program with Kelly’s rack record have such a disastrous season, and how does he recover? Think about it, after coming into the season with playoff aspirations, Notre Dame is hoping it can simply make a bowl game.
If Kelly is going to remain at Notre Dame he needs to start winning, and winning big. Notre Dame has to get back on track and put together a quality win streak to end the season. Kelly absolutely must make changes within his program during the offseason, and the Irish need to get back into playoff contention next season … no excuses.
That’s asking a lot, but bouncing back from such a disastrous season in a big way is not unheard of.
Mark Dantonio and Michigan State
Mark Dantonio and his Michigan State program began Notre Dame’s 2016 slide, beating the Irish 36-28 in a game that was not nearly as close as the final score indicated.
If he was inclined to do so, Dantonio could certainly sympathize with what Kelly and Notre Dame are going through. In years four and five of Dantonio’s tenure, the Spartans went 22-5, and either tied for or won a Big Ten championship.
In 2010, the Spartans went 11-2 and tied with Wisconsin for the Big Ten crown but won the head-to-head matchup. Michigan State pounded archrival Michigan 34-17 in Ann Arbor and beat Notre Dame during Kelly’s first season.
A year later, the Spartans went 11-3, won the Big Ten Legends division and beat Georgia in the Outback Bowl. That season Michigan State beat No. 11 Michigan (28-14), Ohio State (10-7), and No. 4 Wisconsin (37-31).
The Spartans were rolling, and it was expected to continue in year six when Michigan State entered the 2012 ranked 13th in both polls and climbed to No. 10 after opening the season with victories over Boise State (17-13) and Central Michigan (41-7).
Notre Dame pounded Michigan State (20-3) in week three and the Spartans never recovered.
Michigan State went onto to lose five home games that season, dropping games to the Irish, Ohio State (17-16), Iowa (19-16 in double overtime), Nebraska (28-24) and Northwestern (23-20) in Spartan Stadium. The Spartans also dropped a road contest to Michigan, falling 12-10, its first loss to the Wolverines since the 2007 season.
The Spartans went into their final game of the season – a road contest against Minnesota – with a 5-6 record. At that point Michigan State was simply playing for a bowl berth. It beat Minnesota (26-10) and then went onto beat TCU (17-16) in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl.
During the offseason, Dantonio replaced his offensive coordinator (Dan Roushar) and made other staff changes. Michigan State began the 2013 season unranked, and dropped a Sep. 21 road game to Notre Dame (17-13), but it would not lose again.
With the exception of its loss to Notre Dame, the Spartans got road redemption against all the opponents who beat them the previous year, knocking off Iowa (26-14), Nebraska (41-28), Northwestern (30-6) and pounding Michigan at home, 29-6.
Its final bit of redemption came during the Big Ten championship game when the Spartans beat No. 2 Ohio State – who entered the game unbeaten – 34-24 to claim the conference championship. Michigan State beat No. 5 ranked Stanford 24-20 in the Rose Bowl to cap off its 13-1 season.
Michigan State went 11-2 in 2014, losing to playoff teams Oregon and Ohio State but beating No. 4 Baylor 42-41 in the Cotton Bowl. By that point, the 7-6 performance from the 2012 season was a distant memory, proving to be nothing more than a blip on the radar.
Despite heavy personnel losses, Michigan State kept its dominant play going in 2015, finishing 11-1 in the regular season and then winning the Big Ten title game to earn a trip to the College Football Playoffs. The Spartans beat No. 2 Ohio State (17-14) on the road, No. 4 Iowa (19-16) in the Big Ten title game, No. 7 Oregon (31-28) at home and No. 12 Michigan (27-23) on the road.
Gary Patterson and TCU
TCU had an even bigger drop than did Michigan State.
Prior to joining the Big 12, Gary Patterson and his TCU Horned Frogs built one of the nation’s premier programs. From 2008 to 2011, TCU racked up a 47-5 record, with three of its losses being to top ten programs.
During that period, TCU twice beat a highly ranked BYU team (32-7, 38-7), beat a No. 6 ranked Utah team by a 47-7 score, beat a No. 16 ranked Utah team 55-28, beat Clemson (14-10), beat a No. 24 ranked Oregon State team (30-21), beat Stanford and beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl (21-19).
TCU also went 2-1 against Boise State during that stretch while the Broncos were in the midst of its dominance under Chris Petersen. In 2011, the Horned Frogs beat the Broncos 36-35 in Boise.
In 2012, the Horned Frogs joined the Big 12 and proceeded to go 7-6 and 4-8 in back-to-back seasons. It had losses to Iowa State, Texas Tech, West Virginia and Kansas State during that rough two-year stretch, which happened to be Patterson’s 12th and 13th seasons in Fort Worth.
After the 4-8 season, Patterson made changes to his offense and tweaked his staff, which helped result in a major bounce back.
TCU followed up that 11-14 stretch by going 23-3 over the next two seasons.
The Horned Frogs went 12-1 in 2014, with its only loss being a 61-58 road game against No. 5 Baylor. TCU knocked off four ranked teams during the season, beating No. 4 Oklahoma (37-33), No. 7 Kansas State (41-20), No. 15 Oklahoma State (42-9) and No. 20 West Virginia (31-30).
It also pounded Texas by a 48-10 score, and the Horned Frogs got payback against Texas Tech, pounding the Red Raiders 82-27.
TCU beat No. 9 Ole Miss by a 42-9 score in the 2014 Peach Bowl, and followed that up with a 47-41 triple overtime victory over No. 15 Oregon in the Alamo Bowl in 2015.
Mark Richt and Georgia
During his first eight years in Athens, Georgia, Mark Richt had a level of success never before seen at Georgia. Richt went 82-22 during that stretch, winning four SEC East crowns and two SEC championships.
In 2009, the Bulldogs had a 7-5 regular season and the following year, Georgia went 6-7, finishing the season with a bowl loss to Central Florida. Georgia lost to South Carolina (17-6), Arkansas (31-24), Mississippi State (24-12), Colorado (29-27), Florida (34-31 in overtime) and Auburn (49-31) during the regular season.
Georgia opened the 2011 season ranked 19th in the AP Poll but quickly fell out after back-to-back season opening losses to Boise State (35-21) and South Carolina (45-42). The Bulldogs quickly recovered, winning their next 10 games, including road wins over Ole Miss (27-13), Tennessee (20-12) and No. 25 Georgia Tech (31-17), a neutral site win over Florida (24-20) and a dominant home win over No. 20 Auburn (45-7).
Georgia lost to Michigan State 33-30 in the Outback Bowl to end that season, with the Spartans proving to have an even better bounce back from its down year.
The following season, Georgia was even better. The Bulldogs went 12-2 and were four yards away from beating Alabama in the SEC Championship game, which would have earned the Bulldogs a berth to the BCS National Championship Game, where it would have faced Notre Dame.
There are other examples where a team had a smaller dip and quickly bounced back. Oklahoma and Bob Stoops went 8-5 in 2014 but followed that up with a Big 12 title and a trip to the playoffs. Stanford and David Shaw went 8-5 in 2014 and followed that up with a Pac 12 title and a blowout victory over Iowa in the Rose Bowl.
What It Means For Notre Dame
Michigan State, TCU and Georgia bouncing back from down seasons does not mean Notre Dame will do so. What it does is provide hope that it can be done. It also provides a bit of a blueprint for making the quick turnaround.
Notre Dame is not struggling because it lacks talent on either side of the ball. There are things about the program that must be addressed and fixed. Kelly must be willing to take a hard look at every part of his program and take crucial steps to making real changes.
This goes beyond possible staff changes – whether it be on the coaching staff or strength and conditioning – and dives into how Notre Dame goes about its business every single day.
If the changes are made, recent history shows very clearly that a program can be down in the dumps one season and bounce back. Over-reacting and firing the coach isn’t always the answer, and sticking with the current head man can result in a very quick turnaround.
Whether or not Brian Kelly can identify and make the necessary changes remain to be seen. If he can, there is no doubt that expectations can and should be high for the Irish in 2017.
